Level I Pass Rate Predictions

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pdx914's picture

What is the pass rate going to be? 

I’ll start:  40.72%
 

 

Sell crazy someplace else, we're all stocked up here

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mbaer2012's picture

34.61%

orang3eph's picture

43.79%.

El89's picture

39%

ew's picture

42%. What do I get, if I guessed right?

hamada.smaili's picture

I think it will be a 41%

orang3eph's picture

ew wrote:

42%. What do I get, if I guessed right?

I will change my signature to “ew is the man!”. Sorry if you’re a woman.

statusone's picture

I am feeling optimistic… 44.5%

sjken's picture

More Candidates = Lower Passing Rate

I Predict  33.00%

ew's picture

woman please ;-) good idea though

spaiydz's picture

Why is this on the front page?

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With the time I studied for CFA, I could have become a doctor.

rawraw's picture

Are we going by Price is right Rules?  Can you give me a 1%

VWJETTY's picture

37.1% 

100% money-back guranteed :) 

bandscore 10 is like being in the special Olympics...you don't know whether to feel proud or ashamed :(

statusone's picture

ew wrote:

woman please ;-) good idea though

Holy crap, I read that as “pffft, woman….PLEASE!” lol

finwarrior's picture

I love how you guys go straight to the decimal lol like you’ve gotten the first part right

This year’s definitive pass rate is 34%

Level 1 Candidate, Boy you better get reading!

VWJETTY's picture

finwarrior wrote:

I love how you guys go straight to the decimal lol like you’ve gotten the first part right

This year’s definitive pass rate is 34%

I’ma make you eat thoes words when I get it right….

bandscore 10 is like being in the special Olympics...you don't know whether to feel proud or ashamed :(

finwarrior's picture

This is new english to me :), I only eat food

haha i got what you mean but lol really 37% is pretty high if you know what I mean. the geniuses on this forum thought the exam was hard so i’ll adjust it and alter it! 34.00% :)

Level 1 Candidate, Boy you better get reading!

pdx914's picture

We need something easy to guess at with little consequences after something hard to guess and with such great consequence.

Sell crazy someplace else, we're all stocked up here

pdx914's picture

We need something easy to guess at with little consequences after something hard to guess and with such great consequence.

Sell crazy someplace else, we're all stocked up here

VWJETTY's picture

somone want to do a linear regression of the recent years’ passing rates to forecast this year’s passing rate? lol 

bandscore 10 is like being in the special Olympics...you don't know whether to feel proud or ashamed :(

Jehanzaib Zafar's picture

For the past 9 years (since CFAI started taking 2 papers per year of level 1) pass rate of June level 1 exam is a touch under 45% and i wont mind the trend to continue. 

VWJETTY's picture

Jehanzaib Zafar wrote:

For the past 9 years (since CFAI started taking 2 papers per year of level 1) pass rate of June level 1 exam is a touch under 45% and i wont mind the trend to continue. 

amen. 

bandscore 10 is like being in the special Olympics...you don't know whether to feel proud or ashamed :(

orang3eph's picture

VWJETTY wrote:

somone want to do a linear regression of the recent years’ passing rates to forecast this year’s passing rate? lol 

And, what exactly would be your independent variables?

Also, why are december pass rates always lower? Weather? Self-selection of retakers? Or just chance (sample of 3)?

itera's picture

spaiydz wrote:

Why is this on the front page?

Exactly my thought

Hope. It is the quintessential human delusion, simultaneously the source of your greatest strength, and greatest weakness.

EddieChen's picture

I predict 39.00%

VWJETTY's picture

your independent variable would be the years from inception, so you graph from the origin and along the x-axis is years and the y-axis is pass rate and you should be able to find a relatively close answer. i probably would just regress from 2008 to avoid any historical biases 

bandscore 10 is like being in the special Olympics...you don't know whether to feel proud or ashamed :(

orang3eph's picture

A line graph would be less of an overkill.

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