Anyone attempt to have their own personal portfolio blog ala michael burry style. Simplistic but with your own reasonings be it long or short positions. I will be having four month sabbatical and wanted to pursue it out of sheer curiosity and intend to religiously be detailed oriented. Will posting it even in analyst forum or even wallstreetoasis on my daily diamond in the rough be any good traction assuming and that is a big if assumption I get atleast 70% right call. Mind you all I am pretty much inept in tech stuff and intend to write in basic blogger site. Your take folks. Cheers
I’d create an account on Seeking alpha, and post there.
Cities teem with evil and decay, let’s give it a good shake and see what falls out!!
Palantir thanks mate. Never really thought about seeking alpha. Cheers and do have a pleasant weekend ahead.
i encourage you to also post here to share your ideas……love to hear new ideas…
You ever look at FDS as an investment? They seem to have a decent amount of switching costs + annuity stream…
Cities teem with evil and decay, let’s give it a good shake and see what falls out!!
yes i did look at it but nothing great jumped out…i’m also a huge fan of bloomberg so anything within that space sorts of puts me off….and we use factset for transcripts services here….
let me think about it for a bit…..
Yeah, I’m always looking for midcap firms with growth potential. Lemme know if you find any!
Cities teem with evil and decay, let’s give it a good shake and see what falls out!!
If you ever read Market Wizards, you would know that the people that make the most money are only right 20% of the time. They ride their profits and cut their losses. Being right 70% of the time does not even guarantee you will break even.
20% right? that sounds wrong…just plain wrong….its more like 60% of the time…..
I think former trader is talking about traders rather than LT investors…
Cities teem with evil and decay, let’s give it a good shake and see what falls out!!
Yes, the 20% right comment is probably in regard to a trend following or momentum strategy. If you are wrong about the trend, you better damn well make sure you don’t lose money. In contrast, an effective value investing strategy is likely to be right maybe 80% of the time (over a multi-year time frame), though you can certainly be wrong in the short-term. The two strategies are not really comparable but both can be effective. Most of the people in Market Wizards are traders.
“I lost my wife to a margin call. Wives get mad when you come home and say, ‘Sweetheart, I lost the house today.’” - Dennis Gartman on trading mistakes
Is there a similar book as Market Wizards for investors, rather than traders? I really enjoyed reading those books!
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Palantir, i was looking at NAV this weekend…….thought there was some potential there but i think their pension/debt might be a problem……but on a cash basis, it looks ok….just balance sheet seems a bit “shaky”….
What do you find attractive about it? They seem to have decent but slightly declining cash flow, dunno about the fundamentals of the business though.
Cities teem with evil and decay, let’s give it a good shake and see what falls out!!
number one/two player in trucks/buses/military cars and engines etc…essentially a industrial
stock got hammered (down 50%+ o/year)…..they apparently have to change their direciton in terms of how they build their engines due to emmission standards so investors have lost faith. plus, there could be some headwinds of slowdown etc..
negative shareholders equity, pretty capital intensive…though the price to cash flow is not that bad…its under 9x by my count….better stuff out there (mostly the stuff I already own haha)….
Yeah, overall the business seems commodity ish, however commodity-seeming businesses can also do quite well. Seems all right, but doesn’t stand out per se.
Right now I’m praying for SAM to drop about 30% so I can buy it. I know you avoid tiny stocks but if anyone is interested, I’m focusing on some tiny as hell microcaps like pink sheet stock OPST (EV = 0.37, FCF=0.59).
Cities teem with evil and decay, let’s give it a good shake and see what falls out!!
y do you like boston beer? not particularly cheap from my first peak….takeover target you’re thinking? i don’t drink beers really so idk about the product……..
i don’t avoid tiny stocks at all…i have bought small companies before…just haven’t found any recently….i like smaller companies as they’re much easier to analyze for the most part….
Boston Beer is primarily attractive because it is a rapidly growing brewer with a market niche and a strong brand name. I don’t think it’s a takeover target (CEO controls it with a dual class structure). And it is not cheap either, but I think it will be a good investment if bought near 1B, where it was earlier (anchoring bias). Furthermore, I’m looking at high growth midcaps that could grow into something much bigger down the line, another idea I’ve been thinking about over the past year is UA, but it’s not cheap either.
I’ve been buying microcaps, apart from RSKIA and DJCO which I bought, I’m looking at OPST, MPAD, TSRI, ELSE and a few more I can’t think of.
Cities teem with evil and decay, let’s give it a good shake and see what falls out!!
Palantir, do you have a lot of experience with sub 100mm market cap companies? Curious why you would look there as an individual investor. I spend a decent amount of time looking at blocks of micocaps that come up, but generally dislike that corner of the market. There is a lot of fraud in microcaps (including insider trading) and most of the stocks are incredibly volatile. My sweet spot for alpha is about 200 - 500mm, though one can argue good opportunities routintely exist up to roughly a billion (above that it gets much more efficient).
FWIW, generally speaking, microcaps trade at a 30%+ discount to fair value due to the illiquidity and general lack of investor interest. To make money, something needs to get bought out or go on a hell of a tear and become a growth stock. Merely “cheap” stocks often stay cheap (stuck in microcap purgatory).
Not trying to criticize, just food for thought. I hate seeing people lose money on tiny flea-ridden stocks.
I personally think the best way to make money for individual investors with limited time and small dollar capital is a trend following strategy overlaying some basic understanding of fundamentals (you could call that a GARP sort of approach).
“I lost my wife to a margin call. Wives get mad when you come home and say, ‘Sweetheart, I lost the house today.’” - Dennis Gartman on trading mistakes
small caps might be more volatile but that is an advantage….the biggest advantage from buying small caps in my view is that they’re under/not covered by analysts so mispricing is more rampant……small caps also have a higher potential for growth (at least according to some)….
the biggest disadvantage to a small company is that there is normally a lack of demonstratable defense mechanisms you can see due to shorter historical records….you really need to know the product/industry to have a high level of certainty…..
I agree with your concerns about microcaps. The lack of obvious catalysts is what makes me hesitant to buy more micros/pink sheets. (RSKIA has a near 4% dividend and small buybacks, and DJCO has seen a lot of investment growth that I think will generate interest among investors). Indeed, some of these micros just hold cash and do nothing which would be very frustrating if I was an investor.
I’m mainly interested in them for 2 reaons 1) it is an inefficient and murky corner, (pretty much nobody of note can invest in a stock with a Mcap<15M). 2) I think it is good practice to start off with tiny firms and “graduate” to larger ones as I get better at investing. It seems to me that even firms as small as 300M+ are very well known to the investing community and I would have no “edge” analyzing them…could be wrong though.
Cities teem with evil and decay, let’s give it a good shake and see what falls out!!
Right but small cap does not equal microcap (which is inclusive within the small cap category but is a different animal). Microcaps are often basically private companies. It’s true that they are under followed, but they are likely so under followed that they will stay mispriced indefinitely, and you often have unfriendly management to boot.
The product / industry is often knowable with some work. The problem is who is running it and what are they doing with your money? And what mechanism exists to create or unlock value? A lot of microcaps exist because nothing has killed them off yet, not because they are good companies.
You have a company like RICK, one of the largest strip club chains in the country, that is very cheap on free cash flow (it’s all in ones but don’t worry, they have a counting machine in the back!). But then you take a hard look at it and you have to ask, what possible reason is there for a $90mm revenue strip club chain to own a jet? Well, obviously to have crazy stripper parties on the jet! Is the stock going go up over time? Yeah, probably, but it’s clearly not without substantial risk.
I met mgmt a while ago and the choicest quote from the meeting was, “We’re not competitive in Houston because we don’t offer VIP room prostitution in our clubs as our competitors do (illegally).” Yeah, supposedly, but is that going to blow the stock up one day?
Big companies do all kinds of illegal stuff too but their size gives them margin of safety to survive adverse events.
“I lost my wife to a margin call. Wives get mad when you come home and say, ‘Sweetheart, I lost the house today.’” - Dennis Gartman on trading mistakes
You can definitely get an edge on $300mm stocks, no question. A lot of firms can’t even invest in stocks with sub-500 market caps.
“I lost my wife to a margin call. Wives get mad when you come home and say, ‘Sweetheart, I lost the house today.’” - Dennis Gartman on trading mistakes
what is this VIP room? any more details?
No personal experience, but research suggests that’s where you go to bang a hooker-stripper on a well used but otherwise nice looking couch.
“I lost my wife to a margin call. Wives get mad when you come home and say, ‘Sweetheart, I lost the house today.’” - Dennis Gartman on trading mistakes
is this normal? what are the the qualifications?
Fairly normal I gathered providing you have enough liquidity. I read there was a huge bust in one of these clubs about 4 years ago in a club that was half a mile from where I grew up (great neighborhood, you should have been there). The owner was nailed on RICO charges among other things.
“I lost my wife to a margin call. Wives get mad when you come home and say, ‘Sweetheart, I lost the house today.’” - Dennis Gartman on trading mistakes
Yeah, oftentimes and especially at larger clubs in Vegas, once you’ve chatted it up with the stripper long enough and she offers you some type of service, you can inquire about some of her ancillary offerings. At that point, if you have established some rapport or just show a willingness to pay, she might invite you to a back room. This room is actually larger than you might imagine and classy in appearance, and out of plain sight from the normal patrons. That’s where she’ll try to earn some “extra credit.”
Of course, this isn’t from my personal experience either – only word of mouth from a “friend”
Career Coach -- www.linkedin.com/in/numicareerconsulting
How to Break Into Equity Research -- www.mergersandinquisitions.com/equity-research-recruiting
I’m waiting for bchadwick to chime in with surprisingly suspicious amount of knowledge on this topic.
Cities teem with evil and decay, let’s give it a good shake and see what falls out!!
I’m all for classy babes in classy settings…..unfortunately my money is tied up in asset allocation…
Relevant: The most interesting Bchad in the world (I made this a while back for another thread). Expecting him to waltz in here and drop knowledge on us at any moment.
Also, more relevant to the thread, I work with microcaps ($50mm-$1B), and my limited experience over the past 2 years echos Bromions. Yes, there are stocks in this space that trade at some ridiculous valuations, but plenty of them damned well deserve it. Valuation metrics that might be a “screaming buy” for a well-established mid- or large-cap company often merely put a micro-cap stock into the range of “Hey, this is starting to get interesting.”
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