The CFA curriculum describes technological innovation as a kind of curve that increases, increases at a decreasing rate, then declines and then makes a jump (over and over again). This may be an observation of a trend, or way of life for the world in the past one or two centuries, but this is about to change over the next decade. The problem with this curve, is that it assumes that power increases and size decreases in technology occur forever. The impact of innovation, nanotechnology, and information technology is going to come to a head in the next nine years. Information technology has become a figurative snowball rolling down a hill, with the end of the hill fast approaching. The landscape of the IT environment is going to merge with quantum mechanics when the size of transistors become one atom. Michio Kaku predicts this will happen around 2020. Standard corporate strategic plans stretch roughly five years, meaning that if the current five year plan does not take into account the changes that need to begin in 2015, these firms will already begin to lose footing on market share of this new technological environment. There is going to be a final innovation in nanotechnology in the IT industry. This environment will need an entirely new form of human capital in R&D to conquer the morphed paradigm taking shape, upon which the old technological curve will be defunct and out of tune with the markets. People who have worked in R&D with the old skill set and knowledge that the market responded to in the past will begin to lose traction. These companies will be tested by if research/models take into effect that size of certain facets of technology is now a constant, rather than a variable. Failure to see this ahead of time will facilitate definite losses of future market share for the company (or government). Hedge funds, VCs, Companies, Governments, and analysts who see this in time will reap the rewards. Some may say that it is the second IT bubble breaking, but it is more akin to a wall being traversed. Making shorts on companies lacking the new model will be an easy target for those able to see this technological wall when it appears. Parallel computation of this new hardware will be more complex, but will be the most cost effective form of innovation for the early 2020s, until quantum mechanics completely takes over this business model. The main question now presents itself. Who is currently heading in this direction in quantum mechanics? The D-Wave One was created in May 2011 by a quantum computing company in Canada. This was the industry’s first attempt to create a device in this field; Lockheed Martin purchased this system from the Canadian company less than two weeks after the announcement of this quantum computer. Although there are not many tangible benefits to the technology at this point, it is becoming clear which companies and governments are taking notice of the future impact of the convergence of information technology and quantum mechanics. Increased use of quantum information science will be relatively slow until a product cheap enough and feasible to the everyday consumer is developed. Due to the increasing amount of engineers coming out of Asia, there is an increased probability that an Asian company or country will be the first to create this highly profitable product, most likely to be released a couple of years after the size barrier has been reached. The issue is that the time between the creation of this product and the point in which the old business model came to an abrupt halt will be an insecure time for markets and countries. Political unrest may develop if the gap is too large, as unclaimed windfall profits will grow larger until the key quantum information science innovator takes the cake. Pues . . . hasta 2020 . . .
Is this one of those posts that are generated by a software program randomly selecting words from a dictionary such that it resembles human thought?
It does seem that the rate of IT innovation has slowed as many of the most obvious applications have been done and it takes more creativity, thought, and market power to come up with new stuff. But I don’t see it ending. As Hunter Lovins said, we didn’t get out of the stone age because we ran out of stone. So you are saying that quantum computing will change everything and whoever isn’t prepared for it (even though we don’t really know what it is yet) will become obsolete? That’s a pretty dire prediction, and it might be true, but not likely. Netscape was going to make Windows obsolete and change everything. In a way, it did change everything, but Microsoft and Apple and desktops are still here, with Internet Explorer and Safari.
bchadwick Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > It does seem that the rate of IT innovation has > slowed as many of the most obvious applications > have been done and it takes more creativity, > thought, and market power to come up with new > stuff. But I don’t see it ending. As Hunter > Lovins said, we didn’t get out of the stone age > because we ran out of stone. > > So you are saying that quantum computing will > change everything and whoever isn’t prepared for > it (even though we don’t really know what it is > yet) will become obsolete? That’s a pretty dire > prediction, and it might be true, but not likely. > Netscape was going to make Windows obsolete and > change everything. In a way, it did change > everything, but Microsoft and Apple and desktops > are still here, with Internet Explorer and Safari. When the size is innovated to be as small as one atom, we will hit a barrier that will change the market landscape. Moore’s law will not apply anymore and a new business model will emerge. Microsoft, Apple, Netscape, and Safari were all competing in the software realm, which is not entirely the same. It’s physics; it comes down to the hardware. The current scope of IT innovation depends on increases in speed and decreases in size and price. The old technology will probably stay around for a little bit, but it will not be a profit center of days past. It is going to be like the jump from land lines to cell phones. The technology made a leap into a different direction, some companies were left in the dust, but a handful of people still use land lines and they are still a necessity to many corporations and businesses. Innovations in quantum computing are going to completely change the markets and the world at a frantic place once feasibility and affordability have been established in the field. You’re right, it might not be quantum computing that takes the theoretical IT baton, but I see very few other options.
If AF is still around in 2020, I can bump this thread … in 2020. lol.
Analti_Calte_Equity Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Moore’s law will not apply > anymore and a new business model will emerge. And that model will be the singularity all Wired reading nerds have been waiting for. Rise of the machines…skynet here we come.
Quantum computing is nowhere around the corner. Even gases follow so called “Quantum” state at very very low temperature… that was after remarkable innovations otherwise you used to see the quantum states at close to absolute zero. If you talk about the commercial viability of quantum computing, superconductivity (which itself is another revolutionary shit) will come way before that, because people are getting that shit working at temperature of Europe’s coldest day. But there are lot of innovations lined up for decade, the time when I left engineering the coolest thing was HCI (Human Computer Interface), basically bringing AI, imaging and nanotechnology together and fitting chips on humans in any way possible. And how come we forget we are still contemplating possible data overflow in existing state of data warehousing, quantum will just kill it point blank.
Nanocomputing is not even hot yet so talking about using quantum mechanics to build circuitry is really flying before you can crawl. My guess is networked computing (Cloud computing?) and AI are more likely candidates that deserve focus.
I really know very little about science, but I enjoyed the read. I see what you’re saying that when the basic building block we have is a single atom then you’re as small as you can go. But how close is this to happening? You say in 9 years? Nuclear fissure would then seem possible? Correct me if I understood wrong. Quantum Mechanics would be to current hardware, like HD is to regular TV DVD? A higher quality product with more space per disc? Sort of like solid state hard drives are replacing moving ones? PS. If you know the answers to this stuff you’re an alien.