Tim Tebow

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former trader's picture

Lucky or good?

Is this stock sustainable or will the bubble burst? 

I don’t believe you can win many more games in that league only showing up for 1 quarter. 

Telling it like it is on AF since 2007.

Black Swan's picture

Personally, I’m a huge Tebow fan and very biased. I like him for reasons ranging from “he came from the SEC” (I’m an SEC fan) and “he’s reinstating positive role models at a time when players are getting gun, drug, dog fighting and rape charges and stomping on other players while they’re on the ground” to “he’s exciting to watching and represents a message that belief, doing it your own way and hard work can overcome imperfect genetics, traditional tactics and raw statistical analysis” at a time when the economy is down and the American spectator needs that message. In my mind, this is what sports is truly about.

But that’s not what you asked, so focusing on the actual question: “Lucky or good?”

Let me start by saying, you can’t deny he has had some very lucky breaks, like last game, Chicago’s mistakes running the ball late. BUT, he also had receivers drop SIX catchable passes, one that is agreed would have been a touchdown in the first quarter, and a blocked 28 yard FG attempt. You factor that in and he wouldn’t have needed the Bear screw ups. The point here, is luck goes both ways, but Tebow capitalizes better on the late errors.

Here’s my argument in favor of “Good”
-You can’t go 7-1 in pro football being lucky, if you believe skill has any roll in the game. You just can’t.
-You especially can’t go 7-1 with a team that was 1-4 starting the season. PEOPLE KEEP OVERLOOKING THIS. He took one of the worst teams in the league. They replaced him and no one else, and he went 7-1 with the SAME TEAM, beating the ENTIRE division ON THE ROAD.
-But what about the defense?!? The defense is great. It is, but where was this same defense when they were getting beat early in the season? Why did it suddenly and instantly work under Tebow’s leadership? Where was it when they beat Minnesota 35-32?
-He has 11 passing touchdowns to 2 interceptions this season as a rookie, this comes back to not creating those “lucky” moments for the other team.
-He’s getting better. His last two games, very slow starts in the first three quarters, he finished with better than 50% completion rates and 200+ yards passing. He’s also proven he can rush for 100+ yards in the same game as his running back. This forces defenses to adapt in a way that aids their traditional running game.
-He’s done this before, he has been instrumental to the Gators in two national titles and the first ever sophomore to win a heisman. He has a documented history of winning his way.
-Patriots linebacker (and star at Florida) Brandon Spikes was at a recruiting camp with Tebow before either signed to the Gators and turned to an ESPN analyst and said “I’m going where ever he goes.” After just having met him. He has a history of inspiring players on both sides of the ball and getting the intangible effect of rallying teams that don’t show up in his personal stats. Leadership is a documented phenomenon in history, don’t discount it. It’s won wars and built / toppled empires, I don’t think pro football is beyond it’s reach.
-Lastly, people keep discounting the concept of a running quarterback. Let me explain why this works. For their entire lives, defenders train for a situation in which the quarterback hands off to the running back, then the QB stands there uselessly. This means 11 defenders are trying to circumvent 9 blockers and reach 1 runner, or net 2 defenders are going for the tackle. You can always count on having a +2 advantage on a run, so defensive formations are built around the concept of “in the case of a run, do we have our +2 in a position where we can plug potential openings on either side.” Ok, well, when the QB runs (and is 245 lbs 6’3 and great at reading blockers, etc) the running back now blocks. This creates a +1 defender situation. This is in fact a very big deal. If your +2 defenders are spaced with one on either side of the field, canceling the free guy on the same side as the running QB, means, there is now no one free on that side to make the tackle. As a result, entire defenses must train and adapt for a situation they’ll only face maybe twice a season, whereas, the offense is reading and running a scheme they’ve been playing all year, or for Tebow, his entire life. This is why in my mind, the pundits are wrong when they say it won’t work for long (they’ve been saying the Bears D would show the Bronco’s for like a year now). Because it’s simply a hard situation to adapt to and one that will continue to fluster D’s, especially as Tebow develops as a passer.
-Lastly, I’d like to add two things. 1) He is ranked 14th of 32 QB’s on ESPN’s page by passer rating. So, it’s not stellar, but not bad for a rookie on what I believe is an average team at best when they weren’t playing under him. 2) Concentrating all of your play such as all of your completions in several drives is not necessarily a bad thing. A scoring drive is one that by definition, typically contains a series of successive completions. I’d much rather have all my completions put in one drive and thus resulting in a score than having them spread out over 10 non-scoring drives.

All that being said, there’s definitely room for improvement, particularly in the first 3 quarters if they want to be playoff material.

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king_kong's picture

^ Great post BS, I enjoyed reading it. I agree with pretty much everything; the one point I would make is that there were some changes made on the Broncos other than Tebow, so you can’t attribute the 7-1 record after the 1-4 start completely to him. Two of the most obvious ones are Brandon Lloyd being dealt to the Rams, which has allowed Demaryius Thomas to step up (who I think it a better fit for this offense), and Von Miller adapting more and more to the NFL week-by-week. Having said that, it’s pretty clear that Tebow has been the difference maker in this turn around. I’m really looking forward to their game against the Patriots this week - I have no idea what to expect.

Black Swan's picture

^ I’m thinking the Pats might take this one, but if they recover and get right back in gear for the last two games, they should be able to make playoffs. Agreed with your point on the defensive changes though. It’s funny just to hear the Broncos fans in the comments of articles though, they’re laughing at the whole craziness of the situation and just having fun with it. Basically comments like “it’s unlikely we’ll get past the more solid teams in the playoffs, but who the h*ll knows anymore! I’ve never had this much fun watching the Broncos.” etc

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ZeroBonus's picture

I just remember Champ Bailey saying that Tebow has made their DEFENSE better because now they BELIEVE in themselves and try their hardest to keep the opponent from scoring.

Winning football is as much skill as determination and the Broncos right now look like the most determined team in the NFL.

Having said that, determination doesn’t tend to long last while skill does, but as BS said Tebow’s run threat does take skill and his big built should not be overlooked. Now imagine what will happen when this SOB gets more accurate at passing and Denver finds a couple of legitimate targets for him?

Sweep the Leg's picture

As a Chiefs fan, I love the year Tebow is having. I hope he remains their QB for years to come.

Palantir's picture

I say “Sell”. He’s played well, but they’re going to be exposed very quickly in front of better teams. The reason “pundits” say this is unsustainable is not because it cannot work, but simply because Tebow doesn’t have Cam Newton’s elusiveness, and is going to take a lot of brutal hitting making him a less effective runner. The Bears handled Tim Tebow quite well, the fact that their offense is gone is another story. Have fun while it lasts!

Not all men were meant to dance with dragons.

Black Swan's picture

Palantir wrote:
He’s played well, but they’re going to be exposed very quickly in front of better teams. The reason “pundits” say this is unsustainable is not because it cannot work, but simply because Tebow doesn’t have Cam Newton’s elusiveness, and is going to take a lot of brutal hitting making him a less effective runner. Have fun while it lasts!

Tebow has been taking big hits for years in the hardest hitting conference with no issue, he’s built bigger and more solidly than almost everyone trying to hit him at 245 lbs 6’3, would you be making the same argument if he was a running back (which he’s built like)? I don’t buy the “he can’t sustain the hits” argument. It’s the same as all the “pundit” whiners who said “he’ll never be a pro quarterback, his delivery’s too slow, everyone will intercept him” then “ok, well, he’ll never start” then “ok, well he’ll definitely never be a successful winning pro quarterback” then “ok, well the Bear’s D will show him, you’ll see” and now “Whaaaaaa, he can’t do this! It’s the rules, don’t you understand? He doesn’t play by my rules!”. Instead of waiting for this “inevitable failure” I’m waiting for the inevitable moment when the pundits just stop making excuses.

Being exposed in front of “better teams”? What the F*ck are you talking about? He beat the entire division on the road, he beat the jets, he beat the Bears, and he’s STILL A ROOKIE showing clear statistical improvement in his passing each game. He’s only thrown two interceptions to eleven touchdowns, his last two games were 200+ yards passing! His 4Q / OT stats are 61% completions at 8.9 yards an attempt, viewed as his potential, he has a lot of room to grow into an @ss kicker! His passer rating is above Sanchez, Cam Newton, Dalton, Fitzpatrick, Vick and McCoy, Bradford & Stafford. The guy one rank above him for 2011? Cutler. I love how everyone who says he can’t pass is ignorant to the absolute fact that as as rookie his QB rating with a crappy receiving core (his primary receiver is ERIC DECKER) is above most veterans. Yes, he may lose next week, against the Pat’s, better teams with more experienced QB’s have as well. But then again, he may not. None of this will change the fact that he has defied all the critics and successfully turned the Bronco’s into what appears to be a playoff team despite starting with a 1-4 handicap in his rookie season without an off-season training camp to benefit from.

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Palantir's picture

Bears are a good team? The team with its QB and RB missing? Seriously?

Not all men were meant to dance with dragons.

Black Swan's picture

^That’s all you have?

Maybe they could try to buy out Tebow since his passer rating is better than Cutler’s and he can run better than the garbage they have now?

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jcole21's picture

Swan you’re letting your emotions dictate how you respond to this question. He’s getting better, and he is a clear cut winner and incredible motivator, but his ability to continue to win in the NFL is still undetermined. He’s having a hell of a season though.

No quote needed

Black Swan's picture

JCole, I agree with you

I get annoyed in my responses to critics though, because I’m just getting sick of the lack of statistics or reality. They keep repeating mantra’s like “he can’t pass, he’s a running back, he’s no Cam Newton or Vick”, when in reality his passer rating is better than each of them. I just wish they’d get up to speed on the facts instead of repeating the same disproven garbage.

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ayodayo's picture

I was actually in love with Tebow (pause) until last week since i’m a bears fan. It’s more of me being irked by dumb@ss Marion “go back to Dallas and choke every week” Barber than disliking Tebow. That’s another discussion though. I don’t understand why people don’t like Tebow. I agree with a lot of BS’ sentiments about him both as a player and a person. I can’t grasp for the life of me why people are hoping for his downfall. I had a convo with a girl in my office about him and she just doesn’t like him. No solid reason. That gets on my nerves. His numbers and more importantly his wins speak for themselves. He and I were on different sides on Sunday and I had a very sick feeling in my stomach when his marvels started to unfold. That aside, keep it up Tebow. One can argue about luck and the situations, the bears injuries, etc. You can only kill what’s in front of you and Tebow has done that thus far.
I still can’t believe he left all that FL clunge for A Hernandez, R Cooper, P Harvin and others while he was the tip of the sword. Classy dude indeed. It could have been worse and they could have pulled a Umiami. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9ujKxpAvLKg

Black Swan's picture

John Elway vs Tim Tebow
Comparison: 1st 10 Career Starts

Elway Tebow
W-L 4-6 7-3
Pass yds 1,529 1,626
Yards /Att 6.3 7.1
TD-Int 6-14 13-4
Sacked 26 24
Comp% 47.1 48.5
Rush yds 126 630
Rush TD 1 5

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Sweep the Leg's picture

I haven’t been offended since the winter of 1986. But comparing Tebow to Elway? I’m outraged.

cookthebooks's picture

tebow looks pretty similar to kordell stewart

Black Swan's picture

I would never compare Tebow to Elway…. I just happened to write those unrelated stats next to each other to save space! Frankly, I’m outraged that you would use that as an excuse to compare those #’s!

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wake2000's picture

lets all jump on the Tim Tebow bandwagon bros. The team goes down hard in the first round of the playoffs.

Black Swan's picture

Bologna, I’ve been getting in heated arguments in bars over this guy for two years. I built the bandwagon. Secondly, who cares if they go down in first round? How many teams lead by rookies will make it? How many of those QB’s had to deal with a 1-4 record handed to them when they took over? And who would have thought a team that was 4-12 last year would be in playoffs? Just getting there is a huge victory for these guys!

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Sweep the Leg's picture

Tebow’s not a rookie buddy. I clearly remember him scoring (I believe his first two touchdowns) against my Chiefs last year.

Black Swan's picture

He only played 3 games last year at the end, so most are referring to this as a rookie season. I am fully aware of those starts.

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Blake McCallister's picture

I think that the Denver/NE game is a game NE can lose. Pats D is horrible. Last time they played in Den they lost to Josh McDaniels who was terrible. They give up too many points to bad teams.

"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful..."

former trader's picture

Black Swan wrote:
John Elway vs Tim Tebow
Comparison: 1st 10 Career Starts

Elway Tebow
W-L 4-6 7-3
Pass yds 1,529 1,626
Yards /Att 6.3 7.1
TD-Int 6-14 13-4
Sacked 26 24
Comp% 47.1 48.5
Rush yds 126 630
Rush TD 1 5

Those numbers should be put in context. The NFL is a passing league now, where 300 passing yds is now the standard and where flags are thrown against the defense every second play. In the last 10 years, the run/pass ratio has went from 70/30 to 30/70.

Telling it like it is on AF since 2007.

LBriscoe's picture

This fact only puts context to two of the stats mentioned: yards/att and pass yards. The rest of the stats actually make Tebow’s stats more impressive in a passing heavy league.

Black Swan's picture

“Tim Tebow is the most talked about white bronco since the OJ chase”

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JoeyDVivre's picture

I hate Tim Tebow. I really hate Tim Tebow.

I’m Da Church of the faithful, I’m Liao Fengyi, clergywoman mother should have to introduce you to me, I have seen you twice, in which time you are more impressed with everyone I guess in the back of the church at noon to eat noodle face!

Black Swan's picture

Jets fan?

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daviskr's picture

Someone should tell Tim that the European Debt Crisis is down 13 with 2 minutes left. I’m sure he could get ‘er done.

All hail legendary Blake!

Sweep the Leg's picture

This Sunday I’m long Brady, short God. (NE -6 = easy money)

BValGuy's picture

^ I think you’re right. That line is begging someone to pick the Bronco’s, which basically guarantees a NE blowout.

Black Swan's picture

It’s so hard to tell on this one. But, I generally agree, unless Broncos D is really really outstanding it’s probably going to be more like a 14 pt gap

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