Where are all the people that were screaming about how gold was going to hit $2000. Why do people continue to push gold as an uncertainty hedge when it’s clear that when people are in a panic, they’ll flee to cash. Any thoughts?
On a side note; The Euro needs dr. kevorkian to come back from the dead and end its misery!!!!!! Then we’ll really see gold prices fall!
I doubt it has much to do with Euro troubles or any other Western paranoias like “Ben Bernanke is debasing our currency”.
I think the main driver is Indian demand. Now if THAT stumbles, you’ll have an argument.
Cities teem with evil and decay, let’s give it a good shake and see what falls out!!
Studying With
I keep reading articles telling me that India is the real bubble about to pop not Europe. Well?
Formerly ChickenTikka - Member of the Order of the Righteous Rusy Hacksaw
Indian economy may slow down (Should slow down) but I doubt it will “pop” and go into a recession the way developed markets have done, it’s just growing way too fast.
Cities teem with evil and decay, let’s give it a good shake and see what falls out!!
I think it depends on the type of “uncertainty”. For instance, if their was uncertainty surrounding the US credit rating, people might buy gold.
“I’m a CPA! I got money b***h!”
Gold is declining because of deflation fears, and perhaps also as a result of rebalancing following stock losses.
It’s hard to see any of this ending without more money printing. The end of the gold run will come when there is finally stable growth in the developed world, because that is when money printing will subside. Real assets are good things to have until then. Gold is a quasi-real asset with fairly low storage and maintenance costs. I don’t know when to buy more, but I trimmed earlier and am tempted to add now.
You want a quote? Haven’t I written enough already???
munger told me civilized ppl don’t buy gold…….
Studying With
Doesn’t it piss you guys off that all those cable tv adds telling you to buy gold were right?
I mean watching those things 10 years ago I thought, “Gee this is terrible, they are just trying to take advantage of old paranoid retirees who don’t know any better.” I thought it was pretty much the same thing as those collector’s coins they mint in Liberia.
Finding out that gold was the right answer the past 10 years is kinda like this:
http://www.southparkstudios.com/clips/152270/abandon-all-hope
Formerly ChickenTikka - Member of the Order of the Righteous Rusty Hacksaw
@palantir, Indian demand??? lol! Gold pricing, IMO, is not in line with current demand! And I don’t consider people buying loads of gold and storing it in a warehouse demand(that’s artificial demand IMO).
@Ohai, What happened to the price of Gold around the same time as the debt ceiling fiasco? Hint……..it didn’t go up.
Being Born Wealthy > Being Jewish or WASPY > Born Pretty > Top 5 MBA > CFA > Avg MBA > Born middle class > Born lower class > Born in crack house > Working in IT but looking to switch to buyside
Gold’s declining primarily due to the stronger dollar. Oil going down is also lowering inflation fears in the short term.
Those of us that have been bullish on gold for a while now aren’t discouraged in the least. Flows in GLD have been about even over the last few months…no one is really leaving. Technicians are expecting gold to hit $1550 then start the climb back up.
Aside from my usual long-term gold/silver holdings, I bought UGL yesterday. I think the dollar will flatten out soon then gold will start to appreciate thanks to the European nightmare. I feel even better about my purchase now that this thread has been created. Zesty and Dwight have been amazing contrarian indicators. When they start bashing gold we’re normally within 1-3 days of a bottom. Seriously, look back at the bullion thread. It’s time to buy.
Watch silver too. If it falls below $28 start buying AGQ. Sell when silver hits $32 for easy money.
That is exactly what people do with gold….I guess you don’t know many people who own physical metal. With growing indian wealth you can expect more of that.
Cities teem with evil and decay, let’s give it a good shake and see what falls out!!
indian demand is actually flat to down last i heard…its those physical ETFs are that driving the demand for the large part…..paulson and all those cool guys like buy ETFs that store gold…..
Studying With
Gold and AAPL, most crowded trades of 2012?
“Some people make shoes. Some people make houses. We make money and people are willing pay us a lot to make money for them.”
Could be down temporarily, but in long term it’s going to be very strong.
Cities teem with evil and decay, let’s give it a good shake and see what falls out!!
India’s jewelry industry was on strike earlier this year so that reduced demand. Yesterday India just rolled back a big tax on gold. Those two things should add up to more demand in the short term.
Also, let’s look at the price of gold around the debt ceiling fiasco. When would you like to say it started? We knew it was looming all of 2011 and it was resolved on 7/31/11. The performance of gold over those seven months, based on GLD, was up about 14%. Yeah that really sucked. Maybe we should just look at the month of July when the shit was really hitting the fan. Just in July gold was up nearly 10%.
Studying With
I am bullish USD for the next decade..
its a big contrarian play but if the US outperforms and interest rates go up, and Europe goes deeper into a hole.. you could very well see EUR/USD at parity.. very bearish for commoditites also.. just my 1/2 cent
@Sweep the Lep; way to message the numbers there. 7 months we’re talking about within a few weeks after the downgrade; gold sank! After things were resolved everything went up including gold. 7 months my butt
Being Born Wealthy > Being Jewish or WASPY > Born Pretty > Top 5 MBA > CFA > Avg MBA > Born middle class > Born lower class > Born in crack house > Working in IT but looking to switch to buyside
So ohai mentions uncertainity and you mention the debt ceiling fiasco. One would assume the major uncertainity surrounding the debt ceiling debate would have occured prior to congress and the President coming to terms. After an agreement was reached on 7/31/11 wouldn’t you say there was considerably less uncertainty?
Obviously once the agreement was reached there would have been a massive sell off though right? Or a few days later - 8/5/11 - when the US was downgraded? Nope. Gold returned over 12% in the month of August.
But alas even gold doesn’t just go straight up. It did sell off the last few months of the year. Still a nice 2011 though.
This thread is a perfect example of how you just make shit up. I assume you’re trolling…or you’re just an idiot. Just to recap your position, you believe there was greater uncertainity after the debt ceiling debate was resolved, and after the US was downgraded than prior to those events. Then you said gold sank within a few weeks of the downgrade. Why don’t you just take the 60 seconds to actually check the charts?
I have no problem with guys that don’t like gold as an investment in general, or guys that have an actual thesis on why it’s not. The dude a few posts above that thinks USD is trending up long-term? Cool. He has a position. You have no clue.
You’ve distracted me enough that I haven’t address the only bit of borderline thought you’ve put into this thread. The ultimate reason gold bugs are gold bugs is because they believe all fiat will eventually fail. You think that the Euro failing will hurt gold? That would be one of the best things that could ever happen to it. That would justify gold’s role as an alternative currency. Hell, it’s already happening. Central banks are diversifying away from the Euro (and the dollar to a lesser extent) and buying gold. They can’t get rid of it (Euros) fast enough. They’re buying gold as a hard currency because fiat is failing!
You clearly don’t understand gold. Good luck with the FB IPO.
but munger told me civilized ppl don’t buy gold….
Id rather go down to the casino and put my life savings down on black, the expected return is likely higher.
This guy agrees:
http://www.cbsnews.com/2100-201_162-611356.html
@Sweep, I know you’re a closet accountant that like to troll this thread. Yes, you are correct that there was a pop in August and Sept 11’, I misspoke. But let’s be clear about this Gold was at $1,653 on Aug. 4, 2011….Gold spot is now ~$1,580. When gold was going up gold bugs like you were screaming about $2,000 and $3,000 gold.
I’m not buying gold if he Euro fails! I’m buying UK and German bank bonds at a deep discount!
And all this talk, how much gold do you have in your portfolio??
Being Born Wealthy > Being Jewish or WASPY > Born Pretty > Top 5 MBA > CFA > Avg MBA > Born middle class > Born lower class > Born in crack house > Working in IT but looking to switch to buyside
Yes, you misspoke. You generally misrepresent people that actually have valid points against investing in gold. It’s not your disdain for the metal that bothers me. It’s your complete lack of understanding or willingness to understand the factors that drive gold prices.
If you came in here and said, “the gold bubble is popping because inflation isn’t going to happen in the next 10 years/USD is going up/idiots no longer run governments/central planning works/etc.” we could have discussed why I believe you’re on the wrong side of the investment. Instead you named very specific events and times and you were 100% wrong both about the factor (timing of uncertainty) and the outcome (gold went up).
Now, you want to know where the gold bugs have gone? As I stated above, according to the data I’ve seen they haven’t gone anywhere. Flows are still even-to-positive in gold ETFs YTD and Comex volume and open interest has been strong. As they say in the gold market, the longs appear to be in strong hands. Has enthusiasm waned recently? Sure. But the stats say people are not fleeing the market.
When you talk about gold bugs - and I’m not sure you actually know what that term means - you’re speaking about people that have owned gold for years. You really think these pullbacks, and they happen frequently, bother them? Look at a 10 year chart. The last four months barely register. Just an opportunity to add to their stack.
My own portfolio? I’ve stated my allocation in various threads multiple times over the last few years. I’m sure others can back me up or search for yourself. I got into the gold and silver market a little over three years ago and have maintained an allocation to a combination of the physical metals through PSLV and PHYS and various miners to the tune of 45-65% of my total portfolio.
And, btw, you want to go out and buy UK and German bonds if the EU breaks up? Great, more power to you. That has nothing to do with you saying it would be horrible for gold, and again being amazingly wrong. I do advise you to seek other assets though. I don’t think gold’s for you.
y in the world are you buying euro bonds? just curious? where is the upside here? how much is the upside?
potential bailout
Hope. It is the quintessential human delusion, simultaneously the source of your greatest strength, and greatest weakness.
@Frank, yes; I made a good amount of money when everyone was afraid of a Euro collapse and I bought bank bonds on the cheap. If the Euro collapsed, Germany and the UK would bailout there banks and you can buy their bonds on the cheap.
@Sweep, I’ll eat humble pie and admit that I was wrong about gold not going up directly after debt ceiling debacle. I already admitted as much, you don’t have to pile it on. My issue is with everyone that was speaking about $2,000 gold and above. Also, do you actually have gold in your portfolio and what percentage?
Being Born Wealthy > Being Jewish or WASPY > Born Pretty > Top 5 MBA > CFA > Avg MBA > Born middle class > Born lower class > Born in crack house > Working in IT but looking to switch to buyside
Studying With
Zero % in my portfolio. I work in India so my fortunes are already strongly related to the price of gold. Don’t need more exposure.
Formerly ChickenTikka - Member of the Order of the Righteous Rusy Hacksaw