An article on Seeking Alpha got me thinking…
I can’t see this company turning out to be anything but a legendary fiasco.
I can’t see how it could get better.
Now ; the risk I see is if they get bought, as obviously the brand is very valuable.
Thoughts ?
I’ve discussed this security at length with a friend that invests pretty heavily in tech and has done pretty well picking winners and avoiding losers. We are both in agreemenr with your risk thesis. The company as a stand alone entity is basically worthless if you’re evaluating worth based on NPV of future earnings or something similar. But the product itself clearly has a value. People love it, the brand is extremely well known and it truly has global penetration. Some company, somewhere, is going to be able to monetize the application, at which point it becomes extremely valuable. That would be my concern in betting against it.
Personally, I have no use for twitter. I get why some people might, but it’s just not for me.
Interesting, I was looking at it as a potential long. Seems to be very valuable strategic real estate.
Hehe
That’s a touch disturbing. Texas and Peru are tag teaming something.
Agree with Twice the Man.
From a NPV prospective, the stock is probably worthless.
There is value since there is still a user base and distribution platform. No big tech company will buy Twitter since it already has a market cap of 23bil. It’s better to pony down a few hundred mil or a billion to buy the next popular social media niche app with a young userbase (its all about mobile now). I think social media use drops down signifigantly after late 20s/early 30s when people settle down.
Facebook’s timeline and Instagram’s videos are slowly clipping away at Twitter’s value props as user migrate towards FB/Instagram. Twitter has to find a way to pivot and monetize before it users get picked off by other products.
Remember they use to do real time tweeting with TV shows and sports events a few years back? That died pretty quick.
I think actually Texas is the one getting teamed, which is kind of ironic a little bit
Agree. It’s a dumb idea for a company; post one sentence publicly to the mess which is the internet, who cares. Even the owners don’t know how to use it, it’s convoluted. It doesn’t make any money. And it’s a silly huge market cap for absolutely nothing. But personally I don’t short individual stocks…the market can be irrational, unforeseen events can happen…suddenly it leaps 20% and ouchy. I wish they made an ETF of “idiot stocks” so I could short that whole basket with one move. 
They do, it’s called my short book 
dupe
Securitize it please!
Short twtr, long king and znga. Kidding of course
So many garbage co’s in the tech space
Not all bad companies are good shorts. The risk/return of shorting Twitter just isn’t there.
Speaking of which…I can’t believe anyone still owns AMZN stock, how did this numb nut company survive the dotcom collapse? Their 2013 net income before taxes was actually LESS than in 2008. Way to go guys! I see this ever-growing R&D line, but when will all this supposed research result in PROFITS? Their operating margin is a pathetic 0.1%. I say if they can’t make money by now, they likely don’t know how.
But I use them all the time, it’s a great not-for-profit company.
ROFL. Mind if I use that as my sig ?
I disagree with you on this one. I think it is a great idea, just look at how many users there are.
IMO It’s not because the company is worthless that the idea is.
Twitter is just a medium for dumb people to receive information from uninformed people.
Really can’t stand it when people say it’s valuable.
You aren’t following the right people. I get very good info from Twitter.
True. I actually signed up for it (even though I hate it) because of some business stuff I do, and wanted to try tweeting my stuff. But I stopped using it because it’s pointless, as I imagine many people have/will. But they can still say that my account exists, and use it in their counts in their annual reports.
Anyone have a chart of ACTIVE Twitter acounts since inception? I’d be currious if they are still gaining, or in the decline phase.