Calling it now : short copper

Water Cooler Investing
#1

Since I won’t put my money where my mouth is, I am putting my speculator e-credibility on the line on AF for everyone to see.

Let’s talk in 3 and 6 months.

#2

Can you provide some color to your projection?

#3

why now and not 2 years ago ? i wouldn’t take a stand against it now but at $3.50 it was an easy short as every mine the world was profitable at that level. when every mine is profitable, sell. same goes for oil, gold, etc.

#4

^feeling about gold?

#5

Not yet. The dollar is too damn high.

#6

USD depreciation will keep a lid on gold, like everything else, so long-term, gold probably won’t do very well. that said, heading into and following the Greek election gold could do well. short-term pop maybe but we’ll probably be looking at gold sub $1000 within a few years.

#7

Viceroy - Is your personal account functional currency CAD or EUR? Commodities are heavily currency dependant. I think CAD will disappoint next year. I’d be long copper if I was CAD. If I was EUR, going short may make more sense.

#8

hate to hijack and redirect this thread. but its funny you mention copper. i dont invest/trade in commodities, but we still get research about it which is kinda interesting. in any case the chart showed several commodities including oil that are down significantly from 2011 peaks. for example copper down 43%, brent oil down 64%, Iron ore down 64%. the provider argued that errything is down so the oil problem is not a supply problem from us shale, but a global demand problem. pretty good evidence imo.

there was also a recent shiller video where shiller said he was proud to be american due to us shale changing the world from oil pricing dynamics. i think he was implying that back in the day, opec woulda cut supply, but due to US involvement in producing oil. Opec is forced to keep producing since if they reduce their supply, we can easily increase ours until we hit margins where there is no profit. no idea about oil history and opec policy. the amount of data ive seen is juss the past 15 years or so. others is juss stuff ive readso its hard to believe it unless you see it kidna thing. would really like to learn more but dont really wanna do the work for it. so yea juss my 2 cents.

#9

So…WHY are you suggesting short copper?

#10

^Because he expects the price to go down. Come on Palantir…

#11

Because :

  • Insiders increasingly reporting general anxiety and sell-out

  • Highest net short positions since 2008

  • Technical analysis shows broken chart

  • General bearish environment for commodities in general, inter alia in industrial metals

  • Global deflationary pressures

  • Global growth estimates for 2015 revised downwards

  • Copper prices can still fall at least 10 % before production starts to be curtailed

  • China, the world biggest consumer of copper, is facing headwinds in terms of industrial production and in the construction industry (. Also, China has stockpiled the metal in recent years.

  • New significant copper mines became operational in the last years

So basically many factors seem to point towards a crash. Copper is already down since I made this thread.

#12

Mostly EUR.

But this thread applies to the official quote price in USD.

#13

^ Sure, but you could win on the trade and lose in EUR.

#14

You are totally right but again, in a hypothetical world I would place the trade in USD and not converse back in EUR after the trade.

#15

MBLEH got pretty crushed on that.

I hereby close my imaginary trade at a pretty big e-credibility loss.

Reminds me that I absolutely suck a$$ at directional speculation.

#16

had you shorted copper AND iron ore, you’d be sitting pretty.

#17

Still did better than half the macro fund managers last year.

#18

Yeah iron ore is getting killed it seems.

Steel production is forecasted to stagnate alot in the next few years.

#19
  • Insiders increasingly reporting general anxiety and sell-out

sounds like capitulation- usually found at market bottoms

  • Highest net short positions since 2008

So nearly everyone who is bearish copper is now short/flat. Who is left to sell?? this sounds more like a short squeeze set up…

  • Technical analysis shows broken chart

um, no. Very clean downtrending resistance line since 2011. Copper looks good for a long position above 3.00 USD

-Copper is already down since I made this thread.

this guy is a market mover! haha jk. I agree with everything else Viceroy said though

#20

You will be great if you can provide the some statistics on the this