I got a big chunk of debt to fix rate on within the next few days. It’s priced off the ten year treasury yield, any one have any strong opinion about where rates are headed short term? I’d love for the yield to go down, it’s really jumped up recently… overdone?
Technicals show it’s oversold but it broke through its 200 day moving average today and closed there. Also japan not buying because of golden week. Could be volatile heading into NFP Friday and the Greece situation. So not much help here, but momentum is bearish and I would guess we see yields sell off a bit more here.
Great response thanks mbs… this debt is actually a Freddie DUS cre perm loan, ten year term. Each bps is very important… Do you think we may see yields come down by mid next week? I might be able to stall rate lock… reminds me that finance is better than vegas.
My guess is no, they hang around 2.25. Yellen comments today didn’t help. A lot of rate locking for corporate issuance. Not trading on fundamentals right now.
I know what you mean, but to be fair Treasuries haven’t traded on fundamentals in nearly 8 years.
Touché. Neither has much of anything.
with the pullback, probably going to lock today to be safe… although I bet we see some lower yields next week… but I can’t afford the volatility.
I expect the $TNX to see resistance around 2.30 and consolidate in a region between 2.1 and 2.3 in the near term
Yes! confirmed! 10 years Treasury note yields gapped up big this morning, but have been melting thus far (1 hour into the session). TLT putting in a hammer bottom. Yes, I think $TNX rates are range bound between 2.1 and 2.3 percent for the near term.
now range bound 2.5 - 2.2%
from a historical perspective, stay away. dont touch any type of bonds. anything less than 4% in the next 10 years. is a losing bet imo