Come on Fed! We’ve been waiting so long; just say it. No raise!
Yellen should air a TV special leading up to key FOMC announcement dates, similar to LeBron “The Decision”. Featuring commentary by such luminaries as Trump or Mark Cuban.
Don’t forget Old Man Greenspan and Saggy Senile Jack Welch.
I went to a CFA local society event yesterday, UBS chief economist was the guest speaker and he was thinking 60% increase, 40% no.
aren’t the consensus numbers still around 20-30% no raise? if it’s not priced in, this will be the first time in forever where the Fed went against consensus. my bet is they stick with consensus or wait until the consensus is at least 40-50%.
i bet they raise the target rate
NOT
typical
unchanged.
Called it.
Easy call. Just listen to Gundlach.
looks like chiefy was wrong. the penalty is castration. or trial by combat.
So Itera is concluding that CFAvsMBA > UBS Chief Economist.
Respect.
^ word, respect.
his rationale was that the financial markets, employment, ect has been doing well and that we used all out bullets in the last recession, qe, dropping rates and he thought the fed would raise them so that when the next recession hits they will have some levers to pull.
Chief economists are basically eloquent talking heads for the banks, simply looking at inflation rate and the fed’s target could’ve told you that the chances are good the Fed wasn’t going to raise rate today.
Great, so now we have to go thru this all yet again.
Yea…I kindof wanted to get this over with…
I wasn’t suprised by the no hike, but I was suprised about the negative interest rate on the dot plot. Prepping the markets by floating that trial balloon? This was a particularly dovish statement.
Listen, the economy needs low rates, but assets are in a massive bubble. What to do? Who knows. We’re essientially in an asset driven stagflation where instead of consumer prices, our houses and stocks are skyrocketing while we carry on in a zero growth world.
There really isn’t a textbook cure to this as its never happened before. It likely won’t be pretty when it unwinds and then all these chief economists will be sitting around telling us how obvious the solution was after the fact. I’ll bet ya Krugman will be at the front of that line.
And… this belongs in the investment forum. Don’t make me drift back to the Water Cooler. Thanks.
Oh I know the answer to this one! The answer is to grow up, realize there is no future other than 0% real GDP growth into perpetuity, for developed economies like the US. Thus, all the economics books need to be burned and rewritten, with zero growth at their center. Acts of desperation to meet an unrealistic goal (2-4% GDP growth and high domestic investment returns) is the problem. All attempts at hitting these targets will fail, ending only in more bubbles and more USG debt. Things naturally reach steady state, after which they fall into decline. The US is not prolonging the length of their steady state phase (which would be wise), instead they are speeding the decline phase. JP is also engaging in this same immature/desperate behavior.
The economy does not need perpetual zero % interest rates though.
Not directed at you but I fail to recongize the “benefit” of higher asset prices if they’re just a temporary function of fed induced liquidity. If we know these prices revert to the mean, why continue to wait to address?