A few bearish articles on bloomberg this morning…let’s hear your thoughts
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-09/a-u-s-recession-just-got-a-little-more-likely
It’s a bull market so people are still in denial, but there are clear warning signs.
I’m starting to build a S&P500 short position to hedge, and profit from volatility. The market rallied this week when they decided the fed likely won’t raise rates for another year, but the reason the fed won’t is because of decreasing global growth, which is nothing to rally about. So put in the first short this week at S&P=2000, corporate profits will likely suck (yet again), the bull market has been ignoring this for the last year, but it will be harder to ignore this time. Still, with holiday sentiment it may go higher, I’ll double down if we make it back to 2100, and one last allocation at 2200, then sit and wait. Realistically we are late-stage bull with growing probability of a (global) recession and/or monetary-stimulus bubble collapse. It seems likely any index gains made thru Dec, are lost sometime in 2016. So there will be opportunities to close the short out (low probability of “up up and away” from here), and well positioned for when “the big one” hits.
^ Also, thinking I’m going to write some way-out-of-the-money puts on this while I wait. Everytime people freak out and realize the house of cards might collapse, I’ll sell some expensive 1600 puts on my E-mini futures short. That income will more than offset the futures curve backwardation roll cost. Eventually the index bombs and I get assigned and exit at 1600 or whereever I sold the puts. Brilliant!
What do the kids call this, “sell write”?
I think we fall to 1600 on the S&P. Then the Fed totally withdraws the threat of an interest rate hike. Also, QE4 at some point. That should stop the bleeding in the equity markets.
Oh, I’ve refined my bearish strategy. Selling Dec30 2100 naked calls on ES. Can get paid 0.5% to put the short on, then once you are short, sell puts whenever the market freaks (and it will) to buy and close out the short. Repeat for years, churning to bring your avg cost up when possible, till the eventual collapse.
Risk: QE4, but likely that comes after a market downturn, when you will have taken profits on the shorts. Wait till the market shoots up, then short again. Let’s grind this overpriced f@#$er down!
^ Taleb would say your strategy eats like a chicken and shits like an elephant.
^ I don’t know who Taleb is, or what that means, but it sounds totally rad.
It’s just extra money on top of my main portfolio’s returns, futures cost almost zero initial margin. Getting paid three times; on the short call, on the decline, and on the short put. The only downside are some unrealized losses when the market goes up, but it ain’t goin’ up very far, and any gains will be lost. Sideways market. In the meantime I also get decreased volatility since I’m still net long.
Free money guys. 
make it rain
says the 1929 era guy before he jumps out the window.
It means your making tiny profits and when you lose, you’re going to be destroyed.
^ Naw recalculate please, it’s big upside, small downside.
Following up on this thread. And so time moved forward, and I was right (again), and the naysayers were wrong (again).
Sold naked calls on S&P500 futures, got short heading into what would become a late 2015 rate hike, market crashed, closed out shorts for profit, sold puts which never hit strike. Gains on sold calls, on sold puts, and on short futures.
Outperformed in 2015.
How much do you attribute to skill and how much to luck?
It’s probabilities. Luck is part of that over the short-term. I always just bet on the most probable outcome, or bet on a strategy where multiple probable outcomes are in my favor, and only one improbable outcome is not (and downside is limited). Win over time.
Complete nonsense as usual. You really should step up your game or move on. Still a bore. Always selecting the most probable outcome is a sure way to lose money. Same error as the talking heads. Expected return along with range of move needs to be considered. From national behavior assumptions to trading mechanics to probability, you have proven yourself deficient. Have you no shame? Maybe try asking questions instead of making statements. I know you don’t read much text, but you are the cliché the rest of us recognize from our studies.
Duplicate
^These are the types of clowns that you are drawn to and that offer their services and “mentorship?” Can’t say I’m surprised. Hope the convention is treating you well.
^^This has nothing to do with PA. You have been so angry and combative lately. For the record, it reeks of insecurity. It’s making you a target… You used to be fun and confident. What the hell happened?
Hmm, you seem to miss the fact that I keep being right. Are you sure on your probability assignment of “sure”? 
I keep selecting the most probable outcome, after assigning reasonable probabilities, when the market does not. Market at an all time high, valuations at 24X trailing, the near impossible game of raising rates without disturbing the pumped up market…what is most likely to happen here? What happened. Well, could have not happened, but since it was a hedge, not a naked short, no catastrophic loss risk if wrong, but nice return if right.
It’s all history now, don’t pout.