Crude Oil

Water Cooler Investing
#1

Crude is now heading for sub $30 and will touch $25 and then $20.

#2

Definitely a convincing and well thought out argument.

PS did we really need a 3rd thread on oil?

#3

Many may disagree with me, but I believe crude is heading for sub $30 as well.

#4

u mean sub $20?

#5

I was joking, but his post definitely meant sub $30 by the context.

#6

my shorts got obliterated today. Still way up overall though - targetting a $25 barrel

#7

^ Bad call. I’m calling bottom. Canadian producers are shutting in production and ending drilling. We’ve reached the bottom.

#8

^ do you have any idea how many times i’ve seen someone call the bottom on oil in the last 6 months? Also, Canadian production doesn’t matter, we’re tiny. Iran is gonna add more than anything we shut down, and the US actually increased production, per the most recent API report, that ironically, was released on the first day of the rally. by the way, that report also showed US inventories rose far more than expected, I think analysts called a build of 2.5 mil barrels, and the actual was 4, or something like that.

#9

One thing to keep in perspective with Iran and their ability to ramp up production is that:

  1. they are going to competitively produce against the Saudi’s

  2. the relaxed embargo opened up access to about $50B in frozen assets in addition to existing reserves

  3. production corporations are going to be chomping at the bit to get a peice of those development deals

  4. global demand is likely to continue dropping away

#10

im hearing oil bottom at 28/29 also - no opinion

#11

What is this nonsense? Global demand will grow between 1-2 million barrels a day in 2016. There is no declining demand, never has been.

#12

You haven’t heard it from me.

Already priced in. What new will drive it lower? – You should take a look at current capacity to increase production. In OPEC its at lows not seen since 2008. The slightest supply disruption can’t be offset. Yes there is excess supply in the market, but that next barrel doesn’t come cheap.

#13

I wasn’t clear on it but I meant aggregate demand will continue to fall away from estimates.

#14

Anyhow, I guess we can just wait and see on this one. You’ve called bottom.

#15

try Imodium AD

#16

Just thought I’d point out this gem of a post. Sitting at $40 today, up 50% from the bottom. Good thing I put my money where my mouth is too… Been killing it the last couple months. Hope you bears cleared out your shorts.

#17

I was never short. I don’t know enough about oil to play there

#18

Me too, bought quite a bit over the last year, when blood was all over the streets. Super majors were yielding crazy percentages. Can hold on for years if I have to, no rush. Cap gain tax is a *****.

You holding or lightening up geo? I’m waiting for the next idea (plumbing is all I got at the moment) but I’m content, if it drops, I’ll add.

#19

I reduced holdings this week by about 20%. I imagine there will be some profit taking and then I’ll squeeze back in. I’m almost break even with where I started despite the drop from $100. Just smart averaging down and being opportunistic.

#20

I actually went long from about $38, even though for a while, I was looking for a short entry point. I think the markets have just made up their mind that this commodity is going back up.