More specifically, I want to find out the multiples of the semiconductor industry since the beginning (1950-1960s). Unforunately most data sources (BB, CapIQ) don’t go that far back. Any suggestions?
Was there even a semiconductor industry back that far? Feel like that didnt really get going until later. Quick look shows intel wasnt even founded until 1968. Obviously there were companies prior but would that sort of data for such a young industry even be relevant?
comparing technology multiples in 1950 to technology multiples today is like comparing banks to facebook. not comparable. you’re basically comparing ibm typing machines to software. would you even compare intel to oracle today? no. secondly, interest rates and profit margins are so different that any comparison is f-ed anyway.
this comparison could maybe, just maybe be useful for old industries like banks, oil, chemicals, manufacturing, etc but it’s a nonstarter for technology.
It could have value in a relative comparison as well. The actual values within the industry would be nonsense, but the way any emerging technology firms/sectors were treated relative to other sectors could be useful. Probably more in an academic sense, but if someone wants to craft an investment thesis off the data, I’m not going to stop them.
what the heck do yu need this stuff for anyways?
I agree twice I can only see academic use for this as well. Yes the data would be “relative” to the other companies, but it would only be usefull in studying relative valuation throughout the lifecycle of the industry which has fundamentally changed.
Interesting read, I wonder where companies like Intel go from there. Do they focus on making their existing products more power friendly, do they pivot to invest heavily in quantum? I know they place the bulk of their future growth in their Data Center & IoT segments, as they clearly see the writing on the wall for pc processors.