Alleged sketchy ad activity.
http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2817,2407871,00.asp
“Limited Run, which develops e-commerce platforms for musicians and labels, claims that 80 percent of the clicks for which Facebook was charging came from bots, not real Facebook users.”
“They’re scumbags and we just don’t have the patience for scumbags,”
Facebook shares down about 6% today to $21.7. Down 43% from IPO. Might or might not be related.
That’s a tricky deal. No doubt bots are out there and account for a huge amount of clicks, but FB may not be behind it. Google faced similar accusations a few years back and the bots were found to be unrelated…though still misrepresenting the click-throughs.
If FB is running bots to inflate paid clicks, that would be massive fraud.
Call me when it’s at $10, then we’ll talk.
“I lost my wife to a margin call. Wives get mad when you come home and say, ‘Sweetheart, I lost the house today.’” - Dennis Gartman on trading mistakes
Why, are you a lawyer specializing in shareholder class action suits?
You can fondle the cube, but it will not respond.
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Call me when it’s at $20, then we’ll talk.
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the intraday high on the day of the IPO was something like $45.
Well, seems increasingly likely that you’ll see those price targets. Stock is under $21 today…
“I’m a CPA! I got money b***h!”
give us your number first and we’ll see
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You must be the square root of two cause i feel irrational around you
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No, but I would make an exception for fb.
“I lost my wife to a margin call. Wives get mad when you come home and say, ‘Sweetheart, I lost the house today.’” - Dennis Gartman on trading mistakes
$20.02!
Edit: It touched $20.00 briefly, actually.
“I’m a CPA! I got money b***h!”
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$19.90 now (-47%) since IPO
Has there been a more disastrous 2month post IPO period of a large-cap corporation in history?
I reaaaaaaaaally struggled to think of one.
Blackstone group in ‘07? $31 a share at IPO, popped to $35, went to $15 or so within two months. They only sold like 10% of the firm but a lot of people who didn’t do great diligence (OH IT’S LIKE I’M BUYING PRIVATE EQUITY INVESTMENTS, BUT IN BITE-SIZED, CONVENIENT STOCK FORM!) got their faces ripped off.
Yeah, it’s like, some of the most successful investors in the world are selling this after the market has been going up for years. Do you really want to buy any of this? There was / is a good pamphlet floating around somewhere online called “Blackstoned” that outlined some of the carnage – lulz
“I lost my wife to a margin call. Wives get mad when you come home and say, ‘Sweetheart, I lost the house today.’” - Dennis Gartman on trading mistakes
Well put. As Buffett said in Omaha (about Facebook, actually), “These people could choose any time in the world when they want to sell, and they’re intelligent, and they understand their business better than you, and they work for the firm full time, but they’re selling now. And it comes with a 400 page prospectus. You know, you probably don’t even have to know the business but - if it comes with a 400 page prospectus, I’d say, ‘don’t buy it’.”
Found that “Blackstoned” piece you were talking about.
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Even that wasn’t as large (in terms of market cap) as this one. We are talking about roughly $45B in market cap drop. More than what Blackstone was worth at its peak.
I happen to know a lot about display advertising and there are a lot of players, not just Facebook. When a diplay ad is run on Facebook, FB doesn’t get 100% of the revenue. There are companies that actually “serve” the ad such as Mediaplex and others that will take a piece.
It’s a crooked industry. As an example AOL is big in display advertising and I believe that is their only profitable line. They will take out my coworkers and take them shopping. Expensive sunglasses, designer jeans, boxes at sporting events, it is ridiculous. There are no rules or ethics like in finance. They will drop $500 per person easily without batting an eye.
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LOOOOOOOOOL
I enjoyed your post, very informative, but you lost me at that part
“I lost my wife to a margin call. Wives get mad when you come home and say, ‘Sweetheart, I lost the house today.’” - Dennis Gartman on trading mistakes
True. I just meant performance-wise.
So yeah, this is the largest offering done at a hyper-optimistic valuation that I can ever think of. There are more outlandish valuations (money losers like Webvan, Pets.com, Groupon) that I can think of, but…none as big as Facebook.
Good thing we’ve got Blake here. I, for one, would be lost without these insights.
There is a real big difference between actually doing it and writing about at a “micro-cap fund” my friend. You have probably heard the term “big data.” I have said this before but it is one of the largest improvements and movements in tech now. I have clients in the internet space and have access to their data. You have no idea what goes into an ad campaign and how quantitative they have become. It is actual science now. Sitting back at your desk talking to people and reading financial statements does not make you an expert in the space at all.
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I didn’t write that article for work. I wrote it in response to a thread on AF a while back.
As mentioned at the bottom of that article, I worked in that space for a time. We were paid to select, serve, and track online ads. So actually, I have a damned good idea of what goes into an online ad campaign, because it’s what we were paid to do. I didn’t pluck those terms out of thin air, or wikipedia, or a book. I wrote a simplified version of the business model, based on the fact that I worked in that industry. I don’t claim to be an expert, but I’m probably clued in a bit more than the average guy on the street, who might wonder how a search website or a social network could be worth billions of dollars. As a result of my time in that job, I’ve got a number of friends who still work in that space, and we still exchange e-mails and IMs about what’s going on in that universe, because we’re geeky like that.
So when I hear you say in this authoratative, dismissive tone that you have “clients in the internet space” and “access to their data”, I’m not blown away. And when the first example of your “closeness” to the industry is that your colleagues are sometimes wined and dined by AOL sales reps, I have trouble immediately elevating you to the status of “someone who should be listened to”. And when you tell me that I have “no idea what goes into an ad campaign”, I can’t help but laugh.
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That article you wrote is so basic and junior it is comical. People here are going to think you know what you are talking about but you and I both know you don’t. Not only have I designed campaigns but I have written algorithms to determine optimal bids. Possibly at some of the companies you listed and others that trade on the NASDAQ. I don’t go out with AOL sales reps because I’m not some middle manager 27 year old Marketing Manager who has an advertising budget and has to allocate it. I own a company. Concerning AOL I doubt you even knew that was their practice. Seriously, go back to your “micro-fund” and read some more Valueline reports about the industry and try to pass it off as knowledge.
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lalalalaa lololololo…
“I’m a CPA! I got money b***h!”
Great quote, but can’t you say that about every IPO?
Supersadface, when you worked as an intern or an associate at one of these companies do you have anything more you want to add? Did you have access to the free soda machine? Where you included on free bagel Wednesdays or did you have to go to the cafe? Just curious….
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