"80 Percent of Facebook Ad Clicks Came From Bots, Firm Says"

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ohai's picture

Alleged sketchy ad activity.

http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2817,2407871,00.asp

“Limited Run, which develops e-commerce platforms for musicians and labels, claims that 80 percent of the clicks for which Facebook was charging came from bots, not real Facebook users.”

“They’re scumbags and we just don’t have the patience for scumbags,” 

Facebook shares down about 6% today to $21.7. Down 43% from IPO. Might or might not be related. 

“I’m a CPA! I got money b***h!”

Sweep the Leg's picture

That’s a tricky deal.  No doubt bots are out there and account for a huge amount of clicks, but FB may not be behind it.  Google faced similar accusations a few years back and the bots were found to be unrelated…though still misrepresenting the click-throughs.

If FB is running bots to inflate paid clicks, that would be massive fraud.  

bromion's picture

Call me when it’s at $10, then we’ll talk.

“I lost my wife to a margin call. Wives get mad when you come home and say, ‘Sweetheart, I lost the house today.’” - Dennis Gartman on trading mistakes

higgmond's picture

bromion wrote:

Call me when it’s at $10, then we’ll talk.

Why, are you a lawyer specializing in shareholder class action suits?

You can fondle the cube, but it will not respond.

bpdulog's picture

Call me when it’s at $20, then we’ll talk.

NO EXCUSES

Critique my resume: http://www.razume.com/documents/27593

Like electronic music? Check out my latest mix: http://www.mixcloud.com/bpdulog/mix-5/

HugeGamma's picture

the intraday high on the day of the IPO was something like $45.


ohai's picture

Well, seems increasingly likely that you’ll see those price targets. Stock is under $21 today…

“I’m a CPA! I got money b***h!”

Alladin's picture

bpdulog wrote:

Call me when it’s at $20, then we’ll talk.

give us your number first and we’ll see

______________________________________________________

You must be the square root of two cause i feel irrational around you

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bromion's picture

higgmond wrote:

bromion wrote:

Call me when it’s at $10, then we’ll talk.

Why, are you a lawyer specializing in shareholder class action suits?

No, but I would make an exception for fb.

“I lost my wife to a margin call. Wives get mad when you come home and say, ‘Sweetheart, I lost the house today.’” - Dennis Gartman on trading mistakes

ohai's picture

$20.02!

Edit: It touched $20.00 briefly, actually. 

“I’m a CPA! I got money b***h!”

ZeroBonus's picture

ohai wrote:

$20.02!

Edit: It touched $20.00 briefly, actually. 

$19.90 now (-47%) since IPO

Has there been a more disastrous 2month post IPO period of a large-cap corporation in history?

Supersadface's picture

ZeroBonus wrote:

$19.90 now (-47%) since IPO

Has there been a more disastrous 2month post IPO period of a large-cap corporation in history?

I reaaaaaaaaally struggled to think of one.  

Blackstone group in ‘07?  $31 a share at IPO, popped to $35, went to $15 or so within two months.  They only sold like 10% of the firm but a lot of people who didn’t do great diligence (OH IT’S LIKE I’M BUYING PRIVATE EQUITY INVESTMENTS, BUT IN BITE-SIZED, CONVENIENT STOCK FORM!) got their faces ripped off.  

bromion's picture

Supersadface wrote:

ZeroBonus wrote:

$19.90 now (-47%) since IPO

Has there been a more disastrous 2month post IPO period of a large-cap corporation in history?

I reaaaaaaaaally struggled to think of one.  

Blackstone group in ‘07?  $31 a share at IPO, popped to $35, went to $15 or so within two months.  They only sold like 10% of the firm but a lot of people who didn’t do great diligence (OH IT’S LIKE I’M BUYING PRIVATE EQUITY INVESTMENTS, BUT IN BITE-SIZED, CONVENIENT STOCK FORM!) got their faces ripped off.  

Yeah, it’s like, some of the most successful investors in the world are selling this after the market has been going up for years. Do you really want to buy any of this? There was / is a good pamphlet floating around somewhere online called “Blackstoned” that outlined some of the carnage – lulz

“I lost my wife to a margin call. Wives get mad when you come home and say, ‘Sweetheart, I lost the house today.’” - Dennis Gartman on trading mistakes

Supersadface's picture

bromion wrote:

Yeah, it’s like, some of the most successful investors in the world are selling this after the market has been going up for years. Do you really want to buy any of this? There was / is a good pamphlet floating around somewhere online called “Blackstoned” that outlined some of the carnage – lulz

Well put.  As Buffett said in Omaha (about Facebook, actually), “These people could choose any time in the world when they want to sell, and they’re intelligent, and they understand their business better than you, and they work for the firm full time, but they’re selling now.  And it comes with a 400 page prospectus.  You know, you probably don’t even have to know the business but - if it comes with a 400 page prospectus, I’d say, ‘don’t buy it’.”

Found that “Blackstoned” piece you were talking about.

ZeroBonus's picture

Supersadface wrote:

ZeroBonus wrote:

$19.90 now (-47%) since IPO

Has there been a more disastrous 2month post IPO period of a large-cap corporation in history?

I reaaaaaaaaally struggled to think of one.  

Blackstone group in ‘07?  $31 a share at IPO, popped to $35, went to $15 or so within two months.  They only sold like 10% of the firm but a lot of people who didn’t do great diligence (OH IT’S LIKE I’M BUYING PRIVATE EQUITY INVESTMENTS, BUT IN BITE-SIZED, CONVENIENT STOCK FORM!) got their faces ripped off.  

Even that wasn’t as large (in terms of market cap) as this one. We are talking about roughly $45B in market cap drop. More than what Blackstone was worth at its peak.

Blake McCallister's picture

I happen to know a lot about display advertising and there are a lot of players, not just Facebook.  When a diplay ad is run on Facebook, FB doesn’t get 100% of the revenue.  There are companies that actually “serve” the ad such as Mediaplex and others that will take a piece.

It’s a crooked industry.  As an example AOL is big in display advertising and I believe that is their only profitable line.  They will take out my coworkers and take them shopping.  Expensive sunglasses, designer jeans, boxes at sporting events, it is ridiculous.  There are no rules or ethics like in finance.  They will drop $500 per person easily without batting an eye.

~~~~~Live. Laugh. Love.~~~~~

bromion's picture

Blake McCallister wrote:

There are no rules or ethics like in finance. 

LOOOOOOOOOL

I enjoyed your post, very informative, but you lost me at that part

“I lost my wife to a margin call. Wives get mad when you come home and say, ‘Sweetheart, I lost the house today.’” - Dennis Gartman on trading mistakes

Supersadface's picture

ZeroBonus wrote:

Supersadface wrote:

I reaaaaaaaaally struggled to think of one.  

Blackstone group in ‘07?  $31 a share at IPO, popped to $35, went to $15 or so within two months.  They only sold like 10% of the firm but a lot of people who didn’t do great diligence (OH IT’S LIKE I’M BUYING PRIVATE EQUITY INVESTMENTS, BUT IN BITE-SIZED, CONVENIENT STOCK FORM!) got their faces ripped off.  

Even that wasn’t as large (in terms of market cap) as this one. We are talking about roughly $45B in market cap drop. More than what Blackstone was worth at its peak.

True.  I just meant performance-wise.  

So yeah, this is the largest offering done at a hyper-optimistic valuation that I can ever think of.  There are more outlandish valuations (money losers like Webvan, Pets.com, Groupon) that I can think of, but…none as big as Facebook.

Supersadface's picture

Blake McCallister wrote:

I happen to know a lot about display advertising and there are a lot of players, not just Facebook.  When a diplay ad is run on Facebook, FB doesn’t get 100% of the revenue.  There are companies that actually “serve” the ad such as Mediaplex and others that will take a piece.

Good thing we’ve got Blake here.  I, for one, would be lost without these insights.

Blake McCallister's picture

Supersadface wrote:

Blake McCallister wrote:

I happen to know a lot about display advertising and there are a lot of players, not just Facebook.  When a diplay ad is run on Facebook, FB doesn’t get 100% of the revenue.  There are companies that actually “serve” the ad such as Mediaplex and others that will take a piece.

Good thing we’ve got Blake here.  I, for one, would be lost without these insights.

There is a real big difference between actually doing it and writing about at a “micro-cap fund” my friend.  You have probably heard the term “big data.”  I have said this before but it is one of the largest improvements and movements in tech now.  I have clients in the internet space and have access to their data.  You have no idea what goes into an ad campaign and how quantitative they have become.  It is actual science now.  Sitting back at your desk talking to people and reading financial statements does not make you an expert in the space at all.

~~~~~Live. Laugh. Love.~~~~~

Supersadface's picture

Blake McCallister wrote:

There is a real big difference between actually doing it and writing about at a “micro-cap fund” my friend. 

I didn’t write that article for work.  I wrote it in response to a thread on AF a while back.

Blake McCallister wrote:

I have clients in the internet space and have access to their data.  You have no idea what goes into an ad campaign and how quantitative they have become.  It is actual science now.  Sitting back at your desk talking to people and reading financial statements does not make you an expert in the space at all.

As mentioned at the bottom of that article, I worked in that space for a time.  We were paid to select, serve, and track online ads.  So actually, I have a damned good idea of what goes into an online ad campaign, because it’s what we were paid to do.  I didn’t pluck those terms out of thin air, or wikipedia, or a book.  I wrote a simplified version of the business model, based on the fact that I worked in that industry.  I don’t claim to be an expert, but I’m probably clued in a bit more than the average guy on the street, who might wonder how a search website or a social network could be worth billions of dollars.  As a result of my time in that job, I’ve got a number of friends who still work in that space, and we still exchange e-mails and IMs about what’s going on in that universe, because we’re geeky like that.

So when I hear you say in this authoratative, dismissive tone that you have “clients in the internet space” and “access to their data”, I’m not blown away.  And when the first example of your “closeness” to the industry is that your colleagues are sometimes wined and dined by AOL sales reps, I have trouble immediately elevating you to the status of “someone who should be listened to”.  And when you tell me that I have “no idea what goes into an ad campaign”, I can’t help but laugh.

Analti_Calte_Equity's picture

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Blake McCallister's picture

Supersadface wrote:

Blake McCallister wrote:

There is a real big difference between actually doing it and writing about at a “micro-cap fund” my friend. 

I didn’t write that article for work.  I wrote it in response to a thread on AF a while back.

Blake McCallister wrote:

I have clients in the internet space and have access to their data.  You have no idea what goes into an ad campaign and how quantitative they have become.  It is actual science now.  Sitting back at your desk talking to people and reading financial statements does not make you an expert in the space at all.

As mentioned at the bottom of that article, I worked in that space for a time.  We were paid to select, serve, and track online ads.  So actually, I have a damned good idea of what goes into an online ad campaign, because it’s what we were paid to do.  I didn’t pluck those terms out of thin air, or wikipedia, or a book.  I wrote a simplified version of the business model, based on the fact that I worked in that industry.  I don’t claim to be an expert, but I’m probably clued in a bit more than the average guy on the street, who might wonder how a search website or a social network could be worth billions of dollars.  As a result of my time in that job, I’ve got a number of friends who still work in that space, and we still exchange e-mails and IMs about what’s going on in that universe, because we’re geeky like that.

So when I hear you say in this authoratative, dismissive tone that you have “clients in the internet space” and “access to their data”, I’m not blown away.  And when the first example of your “closeness” to the industry is that your colleagues are sometimes wined and dined by AOL sales reps, I have trouble immediately elevating you to the status of “someone who should be listened to”.  And when you tell me that I have “no idea what goes into an ad campaign”, I can’t help but laugh.

That article you wrote is so basic and junior it is comical.  People here are going to think you know what you are talking about but you and I both know you don’t.  Not only have I designed campaigns but I have written algorithms to determine optimal bids.  Possibly at some of the companies you listed and others that trade on the NASDAQ.  I don’t go out with AOL sales reps because I’m not some middle manager 27 year old Marketing Manager who has an advertising budget and has to allocate it.  I own a company.  Concerning AOL I doubt you even knew that was their practice.  Seriously, go back to your “micro-fund” and read some more Valueline reports about the industry and try to pass it off as knowledge.

~~~~~Live. Laugh. Love.~~~~~

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ohai's picture

lalalalaa lololololo…

“I’m a CPA! I got money b***h!”

former trader's picture

Supersadface wrote:

bromion wrote:

Yeah, it’s like, some of the most successful investors in the world are selling this after the market has been going up for years. Do you really want to buy any of this? There was / is a good pamphlet floating around somewhere online called “Blackstoned” that outlined some of the carnage – lulz

Well put.  As Buffett said in Omaha (about Facebook, actually), “These people could choose any time in the world when they want to sell, and they’re intelligent, and they understand their business better than you, and they work for the firm full time, but they’re selling now.  And it comes with a 400 page prospectus.  You know, you probably don’t even have to know the business but - if it comes with a 400 page prospectus, I’d say, ‘don’t buy it’.”

Found that “Blackstoned” piece you were talking about.

Great quote, but can’t you say that about every IPO? 

Blake McCallister's picture

Supersadface, when you worked as an intern or an associate at one of these companies do you have anything more you want to add?  Did you have access to the free soda machine?  Where you included on free bagel Wednesdays or did you have to go to the cafe?  Just curious…. 

~~~~~Live. Laugh. Love.~~~~~

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