2013 Prediction Thread

Water Cooler
#1

Where do you predict the following to be at close of day December 31, 2013?

  1. S&P (currently at 1426)

  2. U.S 10 year (currently %1.757)

  3. Unemployment rate (currently at 7.7% - November jobs report is the last one released before the end of the year so that will be used)

#2

  1. 1540 (up 8 %)

  2. 2.43%

  3. 7.0%

#3

  1. 1250

  2. 1.75%

  3. 7.2%

Gold will see $2,000.

#4

unemployment goes up. As economy slowly improves, people start returning to job searching increasing the pool of people looking for jobs, and due to lag of search to on-job, unemployment rate increases.

S&P up 7%

Gold underperforms

#5

  1. 1550

  2. 1.95%

  3. 7.3%

Interest rates and unemployment changes will be dampened, I think. As the economy improves, more people will enter the workforce - causing the reported unemployment rate to increase (or decrease less). Without the decrease in labor force from 2008-2012, unemployment would be what? 9%?

The Fed has explicitly stated that they will maintain low rates until unemployment is at 6.9% or less. So, we will be stuck for a while in this environment with high unemployment and low rates, even as the economy improves (along with stock prices).

#6

hold me

#7

I guess no one came close to predicting the 30% rally in equities.