ASE down 3.2%, EuroStoxx 50 up 16bp

Water Cooler
#1

Europe has realized that Greece is not important…

#2

Grexit or Graccident have lost their fear! EuroStoxx50 is up appr. 19% YTD while ASE ist down 14%, the ASE only recovered from end of January to mid-February when a temporary agreement was reached…

#3

i think it’s just QE boosting EU earnings and forcing investors to be complacent about market risk. if the day comes that Greece is Grexiting, i’m sure the whole of Europe will come under pressure. could be a very good time to set up a pair trade on the EU and Greece if you have any confidence that Greece will find a solution in the EU. maybe use some options to limit downside.

#4

First of all: Please don’t post this crap in WC. This belongs in investments section. I don’t come to WC for intellectual nonsense

Secondly: Most of Greece’s debt is owned by the public sector not private. (Basically the ECB & IMF) So a default is less likely to occur, Greece knows this and so does Germany. So as long as Greece doesn’t take out more loans, this cycle of near-default & bailout will continue until the entire loan is practically written off.

#5

Got it. I’ll stick to rape comments in WC for now on.

#6

yes

#7

devil

#8

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/04/22/business/dealbook/ecb-tightens-flow-of-money-to-greek-banks.html?partner=rss&emc=rss

Europe is nowhere near Greece. QE has distorted things to the extent that it’s almost impossible to tell how much more of an upmove we could’ve seen, if it wasn’t for Greece.

Vols are not that low right now - given that this is not the first time a grexit has been feared, there’s still a decent amount of activity in options indicating people are buying protection

#9

Its the Greek FM himself

http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/greece-debt-deal-by-yanis-varoufakis-2015-04

#10

TLDR version:

  1. Greece doesn’t want the EU to set any economic targets for them.

  2. Greece doesn’t want austerity.