Yeap German REIT sounds like a nice trade, not something I look into myself - at the moment I’m purely focussed on core assets across the board and now that I have India to look at, there’s zero time for anything else.
As for the point about US vs EU cost base, I agree with you fundamentally and that’s what I’m sure eveyrone is hoping for - a friend studies at HBS and Alan Mulally gave them a lecture last week where he spoke of exactly this point about competing with EU. But reality on the ground is that we’re still kinda stuck in a bit of a rut - hopefully second quarter will bring good news.
Haha - I can imagine. initially I was a bit dejected too when my manager asked me to start covering that country but it’s a fantastic place to selectively invest in. That said, it’s a highly unreliable place when it comes to enforcement of regulation. UK’s vodafone was caught in a tax battle with their central government, where the government changed a tax code retrospectively and demanded they pay $2.5 billion (yes, billion) in capital gains tax. It’s also hard to speak to analysts/brokers on the ground - they’re always super excited about everythinng and if I was to believe them, everything is always a buy.
India’s got three things going for it now - a solid central bank governer who’se an ex-IMF economist who is not afraid to show the middle finger to central govt when required, their PM, who’se an excellent politician, which means he is good at getting trade deals which’ve been hanging for ages done and falling oil prices. What tops it all, India’s median age is 28 - at 38 China is not even close. Respectable foreign reserves, elimination of fuel subsidies and a pro-business stance is what IMO has turned the tide for India since election. And the volume/liquidity in derivatives market is crazy.
Be careful though, if Modi doesn’t deliver on fiscal deficit reduction by mid-terms, money will flow out quicker than you and I can imagine.
^i’ve read about that guy. pretty impressive dude in india. but yes everyone is way too bullish. and when everyone is too positive, i tend to shy away.
i dont really kno much about mexico btw. i juss know they are the next to the US and people beleive they have a lot of untapped shale oil. being US neighbors, they should also be able to piggyback on our successes. at least that is what i imagine is in store for them.
You’re not alone - hearing a lot of research guys calling retai investors to cash out and go on a holiday, come back after a few crashes to buy again. Lol!
I can’t speak to Denmark specifically, but the stronger countries of Europe are going to dominate with QE. Look at exports as a % of GDP in Belgium, Netherlands, Germany, and yes, Denmark. These guys are going to kill it with a cheap Euro.
you dont need to hedge imo. Japan’s currency is pretty weak right now cuz of the printing. but the printing may do less harm that what is perceived, the types of investable assets for the cb are very broad and even include equities. IMO, what they invest in, is not gonna devalue the currency, in fact it’ll strengthen it. and the perceived weakness in their currency that is baked in will dissipate eventually.
I think India has to be a good destination right now. High commodity prices have been a major problem for oil importing India…with commodity prices falling across the board and a business friendly regime in power…
India is bid massively right now (and has been for a while) - for reasons beyond oil and a business friendly govt.
During my review I was asked if I’d like to reduce my limits in India to get more in EU, I proposed to him we do the opposite - still waiting to hear from him.
My only concern about India is how INR will react to Yellen raising rates in a few months/quarters - India’s growing FX reserve and an excellent Governer provide some assurace, but I’m not sure if it’s enough. Lets see how it plays out.
