Fair enough. We’re both right so far. I’m really not trying to be overly hostile here. I’m saying, we see each other’s pov, I really have nothing to add to my case, lets keep score in six months. I’m fully acknowledging that you might be right, but I am holding the position with conviction up till a year unless I see enough appreciation to justify a sale or I decide I’m wrong and it’s time to exit.
fair enough. i rescind my offer to measure d’s.
I’d prefer USD in a currency, liquidity, financial crisis over gold in the short term.
At some extreme stress point gold will be liquidated and used to satify cash calls on multiple layers of debt obligations. It happened in 2008 pretty severly - utlimately recovering after the recession ended, heavily correlated with equity market movements at the time.
Gold is a fickle as F investment and should be measured against realtive purchasing power vs. general appreciation of other non-related assets.
Admittedly i do not know much about this sector.
Having said that, isnt ABX a very different investment than a straight gold play?
ABX could deal with different types of derivatives in order to increase/decrease its current and future exposure to gold. They also run the risk of labor strikes/shutdown of certain mines if cost go above a certain threshold.
I am interested in learning a bit more about gold miner stocks…is there really any point in choosing miner stock over the commodity itself?.. I see gold appreciating in the short term due to the currency manipulation going on in the eastern hemisphere. I also see it decreasing in the short-medium term as soon as the Fed can confidently raise interest rates.
it looks like China is the major factor here.
Having said that, as soon as the fed raises rates, I cant see gold being an effective investment.
Sup?
MLA, Barrick is up 50% (62% over S&P) from when I said BUY on August 12th (S&P down 12%) and as I said follow back up in six months. Here we are, reading back was I right or was I right. Even nailed it on the operational leverage and the risk drivers.
Re-read my posts, it’s like a playbook. Holy shit am I smart.
BTW, those options are up >800%
One of the best buys relative to the market that I’ve had.
six months early…
could’ve made 10x more if you bought shorter-term options on a catalyst instead, like the Fed pushing rate hike expectations out to H2 2016 about three weeks ago.
its still a good trade in that it was profitable (if you close it) but not executed well.
i’m still up infinity percent over the last six years so i’m happy.
also, i’m not positive what you bought but 2017 OTM calls:
$13s are up 340%
$15s are up 300%
$17s are up 280%
$20s are up 420%
$22s are up 200%
$25s are up 175%
since August 2015.
not sure where you’re getting 800% but you might want to check what you own…
My $17 2017’s, bought at $0.50, quoted at $3.xx. Which I realize now still doesn’t add up but I just glanced at the BB. It’s a good problem to have.
Doesn’t change the fact that you were completely wrong on this underscored by a generally over simplistic lack of understanding of both the economy and the gold market.
Classic MLA having a position go so completely against your call over the exact time frame and in the exact manner I predicted and still trying to grasp at a leg to stand on.
still six months early and you had no catalyst on which to buy on at the time so it wasn’t even well thought out. yes, some of what you were saying made sense on a very long-term fundamental basis but you had no short-term fundamental basis and no technical basis so buying options was a risky move at the time. and it was, as you lost 6 months of time premium and could’ve become a truly rich man had you bought shorter term options at a more appropriate time.
i’m saying, congrats you made some dough, but don’t come in here acting like this was the best trade of all time. and have you closed the position? if not, don’t act like the money is yours to keep.
Hahahahaha, awwww. URWRONG 
Keep talking if it makes you feel better. You’ve always had a strategist / SS / treasury feel to you, never right, always talking.
If you’d ever managed anything on the buyside you’d know several hundred percent on a trade is always awesome (especially when the alternative is being wrong, dumb, and still feeling a need to lecture everyone) and be a little more aware of how wrong you are.
RE the trade, there are plenty of guys that trade outside technicals, my catalyst was economic, which occured, and I traded on my thesis which was gold price tied to economic conditions, hence, interest rates were not central to my view as the driver was fear.
i think you forget to remember that i basically called rising OPEC production and prolonged weakness in oil prices in late 2014 when everyone, including posters here, thought that because Saudi Arabia’s “budget breakeven price” was $90, that the price of oil must go back to $90. i called a story that has been talked about daily for 450 days. you’ve been wrong for 180 days and right for 21 days.
you don’t need to make me look bad for you to feel good. or maybe you do. you are the hulk.
I was never part of said discussion or if I was, I definitely didn’t argue in favor of $90 oil.
I didn’t know investors got paid in days.
i didn’t know pros bragged about specific trades on anonymous forums.
When is the movie coming out based on this thread? I’m seeing it (complete with d measuring, MLA and BS in themed character costumes, krnyc in tears and the great commodity saga of 2014-2016)