do you think you get partial credit for writing out the correct formula but doing one of the variables incorrectly.
MPS-minimum passing score. Considered to be around 65%, but it’s value is never released to public.
Guys - if let’s say for PM I know for sure I got at least 70% of Ethics questions wrong (checked answers after - no guesses went my way), and I know I got an additional 5 for sure wrong amongst the PM, with 5 more guesses, and I found the AM bearable (filled in everything, but guessed/BSed on multiple parts) - what are my chances?
In sum - if I get 15-17 questions wrong in PM - with majority of AM feeling okay, what are my chances?
Yes you can pass with that.
Minimum passing score.
This is confusing - then how do so many people fail? It sounds like you can get 20 questions wrong in the PM, with at least 30% of AM wrong, and still pass. 20 questions wrong sounds like a lot, as does 30% of AM wrong…? Idk…
Are the people failing getting 30/60 in afternoon and similar in AM? I know the exam is hard (I failed a level) but just given the odds, what does it take to actually fail. Can anyone who failed level 3 once before mention how they felt leaving the exam in terms of questions they knew for sure they got wrong?
I failed band 10 last year…
Left the exam thinking I would get a bit better than 50% in AM and 70-75 in the aftee. I almost got that and fialed border line at band 10.
IMHO 50% in morning and 75% + in aftee, you could end up passing. We did see some scores last year in that pass range.
looking at the results threads from previous years will make you feel better, a lot of ugly passes. also made me realise that the results come out 9 weeks and 3 days after the exam so I’m expecting them on the 12th August.
Think of a normal probability distribution – specifically the belly (or the peak). They are basically going to divide the peak of the distribution in half. Everyone above passes, everyone below fails.
Or at least, that is my understanding from looking at historical pass rates and MPS estimates. This also explains why people in the middle-of-the-pack or those who ‘felt good’ about their scores will still end up failing.
If it makes you feel any better, out of the 180 points available in a.m., I scored under 50% in 119 of them and still passed ( in 2012). Nothing in 50% band in p.m. though.
Gringo is right; look at some prior year scores. A.M. can be really ugly.
Interesting - does it matter that I felt I did better in AM? I just felt like in PM there were way too many (as in 5-10) questions that were a crapshoot between 2 choices, in addition to the ones I know I got wrong (~10). Was confident on about 40 of them I thought.
no
I have no idea how any of you can estimate your score with any reasonable ness.
I smell a lot of overconfidence bias from those that say they can.
What if you feel better about the AM? Then are you screwed?
Ethics was weird…and there is at least 15 question in the PM that I wasn’t really sure so I don’t think that I can have 70% in the PM but if I hit 75% in the AM which according to you guys is too far from the average of 50% maybe I can have a chance…
Below are all the Level 3 results posted on AF last year (2013) … Scores based on 40/60/80 method
Can give you a sense of possible AM/PM combinations that pass/fail
AM % 48.3 PM % 64.0 Avg % 56.2 Pass AM % 47.0 PM % 68.0 Avg % 57.5 Pass AM % 55.7 PM % 60.0 Avg % 57.8 Pass AM % 48.4 PM % 68.0 Avg % 58.2 Pass AM % 49.3 PM % 68.0 Avg % 58.7 Pass AM % 46.8 PM % 72.0 Avg % 59.4 Pass AM % 49.0 PM % 70.0 Avg % 59.5 Pass AM % 55.7 PM % 64.0 Avg % 59.8 Pass AM % 50.2 PM % 70.0 Avg % 60.1 Pass AM % 48.3 PM % 72.0 Avg % 60.2 Pass AM % 48.3 PM % 72.0 Avg % 60.2 Pass AM % 54.6 PM % 66.0 Avg % 60.3 Pass AM % 50.8 PM % 70.0 Avg % 60.4 Pass AM % 57.0 PM % 64.0 Avg % 60.5 Pass AM % 65.2 PM % 56.0 Avg % 60.6 Pass AM % 51.3 PM % 70.0 Avg % 60.7 Pass AM % 51.6 PM % 70.0 Avg % 60.8 Pass AM % 47.7 PM % 74.0 Avg % 60.8 Pass AM % 46.0 PM % 76.0 Avg % 61.0 Pass AM % 50.1 PM % 72.0 Avg % 61.1 Pass AM % 52.2 PM % 70.0 Avg % 61.1 Pass AM % 52.3 PM % 70.0 Avg % 61.2 Pass AM % 54.9 PM % 68.0 Avg % 61.4 Pass AM % 49.1 PM % 74.0 Avg % 61.6 Pass AM % 49.4 PM % 74.0 Avg % 61.7 Pass AM % 63.6 PM % 60.0 Avg % 61.8 Pass AM % 59.6 PM % 64.0 Avg % 61.8 Pass AM % 57.9 PM % 66.0 Avg % 61.9 Pass AM % 53.9 PM % 70.0 Avg % 61.9 Pass AM % 56.1 PM % 68.0 Avg % 62.1 Pass AM % 56.3 PM % 68.0 Avg % 62.2 Pass AM % 54.3 PM % 70.0 Avg % 62.2 Pass AM % 52.6 PM % 72.0 Avg % 62.3 Pass AM % 52.8 PM % 72.0 Avg % 62.4 Pass AM % 51.0 PM % 74.0 Avg % 62.5 Pass AM % 51.2 PM % 74.0 Avg % 62.6 Pass AM % 61.6 PM % 64.0 Avg % 62.8 Pass AM % 55.6 PM % 70.0 Avg % 62.8 Pass AM % 51.8 PM % 74.0 Avg % 62.9 Pass AM % 57.9 PM % 68.0 Avg % 62.9 Pass AM % 56.4 PM % 70.0 Avg % 63.2 Pass AM % 54.6 PM % 72.0 Avg % 63.3 Pass AM % 58.9 PM % 68.0 Avg % 63.4 Pass AM % 62.9 PM % 64.0 Avg % 63.4 Pass AM % 53.1 PM % 74.0 Avg % 63.6 Pass AM % 55.1 PM % 72.0 Avg % 63.6 Pass AM % 61.2 PM % 66.0 Avg % 63.6 Pass AM % 47.2 PM % 80.0 Avg % 63.6 Pass AM % 56.0 PM % 72.0 Avg % 64.0 Pass AM % 60.2 PM % 68.0 Avg % 64.1 Pass AM % 56.2 PM % 72.0 Avg % 64.1 Pass AM % 60.7 PM % 68.0 Avg % 64.3 Pass AM % 54.8 PM % 74.0 Avg % 64.4 Pass AM % 54.8 PM % 74.0 Avg % 64.4 Pass AM % 57.4 PM % 72.0 Avg % 64.7 Pass AM % 53.9 PM % 76.0 Avg % 64.9 Pass AM % 50.1 PM % 80.0 Avg % 65.1 Pass AM % 54.4 PM % 76.0 Avg % 65.2 Pass AM % 67.2 PM % 64.0 Avg % 65.6 Pass AM % 57.2 PM % 74.0 Avg % 65.6 Pass AM % 51.2 PM % 80.0 Avg % 65.6 Pass AM % 58.6 PM % 74.0 Avg % 66.3 Pass AM % 57.2 PM % 76.0 Avg % 66.6 Pass AM % 57.2 PM % 76.0 Avg % 66.6 Pass AM % 58.3 PM % 76.0 Avg % 67.2 Pass AM % 60.9 PM % 74.0 Avg % 67.4 Pass AM % 59.8 PM % 76.0 Avg % 67.9 Pass AM % 58.0 PM % 78.0 Avg % 68.0 Pass AM % 56.1 PM % 80.0 Avg % 68.1 Pass AM % 60.4 PM % 76.0 Avg % 68.2 Pass AM % 61.7 PM % 76.0 Avg % 68.8 Pass AM % 64.2 PM % 76.0 Avg % 70.1 Pass AM % 64.4 PM % 76.0 Avg % 70.2 Pass AM % 62.7 PM % 78.0 Avg % 70.3 Pass AM % 65.4 PM % 76.0 Avg % 70.7 Pass AM % 66.6 PM % 76.0 Avg % 71.3 Pass AM % 62.7 PM % 80.0 Avg % 71.3 Pass AM % 64.1 PM % 80.0 Avg % 72.1 Pass AM % 66.7 PM % 78.0 Avg % 72.3 Pass AM % 66.9 PM % 80.0 Avg % 73.4 Pass AM % 44.6 PM % 60.0 Avg % 52.3 Fail Band 6 AM % 46.8 PM % 60.0 Avg % 53.4 Fail Band 5 AM % 49.9 PM % 58.0 Avg % 53.9 Fail Band 7 AM % 49.2 PM % 60.0 Avg % 54.6 Fail Band 9 AM % 46.0 PM % 64.0 Avg % 55.0 Fail Band 10 AM % 50.2 PM % 60.0 Avg % 55.1 Fail Band 8 AM % 53.1 PM % 60.0 Avg % 56.6 Fail Band 9 AM % 43.6 PM % 72.0 Avg % 57.8 Fail Band 7 AM % 52.9 PM % 68.0 Avg % 60.4 Fail Band 9 AM % 52.1 PM % 70.0 Avg % 61.1 Fail Band 9 AM % 54.3 PM % 68.0 Avg % 61.2 Fail Band 10
The above scores are based on 40/60/80 method
Great info; thanks for posting. While 40/60/80 is certainly not a precise scoring method, these results do point to MPS being in the 60-65 range. I would guess that the low-60’s score that failed had a shitty ethics score and the people who scored in the high-50’s and passed got 100% on ethics.
I agree about the accuracy of the 40/60/80 method … but probably thats the best approximation that one can make given the score reporting style adopted by the CFA Institute.
Also I think the 40/60/80 method is not appropriate for the AM section … it overestimates the “less than 50%” band …
From Level 1 up until now, I have never gotten less than > 70% in Ethics. And the only time I studied Ethics was in Level 1.
It just comes natural to me.