except today, gold is now down after an unexpected and huge injection of monetary stimulus. clearly gold was rallying solely as a safe haven over the past few days. this is the problem with gold these days, deflation is bad and even higher EXPECTED inflation doesn’t help as gold likely got tired of rising expected inflation but no tangible inflation from 2009-2013. it will likely require real tangible inflation for gold to move sustainably upward. safe haven buying will provide short-term spikes but the trend is down until inflation actually spikes.
Peter Schiff nailed the dot com bubble and the housing bubble. And he is going to nail the US dollar bubble this time.
Regarding the junior miners, equities can be a leading indicator to the underlying commodity.
When the Fed calls off a rate hike this year and/or announces QE4, precious metals are going to rally hard and fast.
Oh Schiff!
That guy is super smart, loads of common sense, and totally hilarious. He nailed the subprime collapse and had the balls to say it loudly on TV back when everyone was in denial. I also agree with his analysis on the “solution” to the collapse. Basically once you get on drugs it feels great, but it’s hard to get off the drugs! The US/JP/EU economies are all on drugs, in denial of that fact, and it’s going to be ugly getting clean.
But as far as his gold call I’m skeptical. Who knows though.
Schiff’s problem has always been that he gets the general call right, but then screws up theh execution. This was seen in the fact that most of his funds didn’t necessarily do so great after the drops and the fact that he was calling for rampant inflation. I’m not giving up on gold yet, but I think that gold may be an example of his calling the collapse economics, but messing up the investment execution.
I’ll pass:
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totally subjective value, more than any other asset as it does not yield anything.
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extremely complicated to understand and make reasonable forecasts
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pretty volatile
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paper gold --> I don’t think so
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physical gold --> storage / insurance costs
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subject to central banks’ and governments’ decisions around the world (again, probably moreso than any other asset class)
^I should be insuring my stacks? Shit. I’ll be right back. Need to call Nationwide.
Well, Diwali is around two and a half months away.
^^
Nah, you’ll be fine with your 10K in gold coins in your drawers.
never seen scatman post before
Yes he has been wrong on calling for rampant inflation. But timing can be very difficult to nail. Schiff didn’t expect the Euro crisis sideshow these past few years, which helped strengthen the Dollar. But ultimately we will see very high inflation when China unpegs from the USD and people realize the US is no stronger than the EU.
Other than that, he has a good record on execution. He’s been recommending gold since 1998, and gold has greatly outperformed the Dow since.
Also in 2007 he started a hedge fund to short subprime mortgages. According to him the fund was up 700%+
I just can’t understand why so many people marginalize him. I have yet to find someone with a better global macro understanding…
Perhaps the issue is that if he weren’t marginalized, his calls would be considered mainstream and therefore not nearly as profitable.
Well there are a lot of guys with a macro understanding that good. But if you bought gold on his inflation call in 2010 or 2011 you’d have lost like 40%. See, I can cherry pick data points too.
People hate those who think for themselves and go against the party line (herd behavior)…especially if the loner ends up being right and makes everyone else look stupid.
I find him entertaining, and his macro-level thought process is quite good (even if he ends up being wrong, his reasoning is fair). Was not aware he screwed up execution as I don’t follow his funds (or whatever he manages). That’s kinda sad. He’s got a good mind for big picture analysis though, and asking the common sense questions nobody asks…
Another great Schiff question “wait, how the hell did hitting a 2% inflation target become THE goal for all developed nations? Why are we doing this, and why isn’t anyone questioning it?”.
so gold has been on the rebound lately,
Browns are happy.
don’t forget about other physical assets like oil and agriculture strengthening as well