I picked some up at $10 this morning, so we are in it together.
Figure 150% return if it makes it back to $25 in a couple years, or perhaps I lose 50%. Fun ride either way.
@Ohai - it sounds like you let the tail wag the dog. But again, you’re probably in the 24% LTCG bracket, so that’s a pretty big hurdle.
Had lunch with my European IBer friend today, his updated thoughts on Greece…
He maintains people placing high odds on an exit have no idea what they are talking about; racially they are Europeans and that bond will not be broken just because they are incompetent Europeans. And basically what Ohai said earlier, “creative ways will be found of kicking the can”. Regarding the vote he figures it’s just to say “see, the people have spoken, we need a better deal”. Of course he is super opinionated and wrong fairly often.
Staying the Euro region isn’t going to matter if their banking system collapses. 20 euro limit on ATM withdrawals says it’s over regardless if they work out a semi-positive deal to keep the government afloat.
The EU needs to stop toying with this notion that Greece is able to repay their debts. Take a 75% haircut and move on, the rest of the banking/inusrance company’s of the Euro region have unloaded a lot of their exposure so the idea of banking contangion is largely overstated - this is purely political.
Economically, Greece has already received a significant hair cut on their debt - through lower interest rates and rolling of their obligations to future maturities. An explicit hair cut would be less politically palatable to other EU constituents, who are already mad for subsidizing Greece, and might trigger some kind of default event that lowers Greek credit ratings and further increases their interest costs. Of course, this is not to say that more drastic measures are not in Greece’s future.
Well, that was the easiest 13% return I’ve ever made… Let’s see how this breaking news plays out. Man there is an awful lot of game-playing by the Greeks. Part of me wants to see it blow up in their face, but that wouldn’t be great for my account.
For too long, Greece gave way too much austerity with its generous retirement funds, healthcare, and free handouts all funded with debt.
hey wait, that sounds a lot like another country…
How did the Greeks go from the originators of Western society to this?
Everyone in Europe is clearly fed up. But it seems the Greeks have maneuvered themselves into checkmate, not many moves left I think?
A lot can happen in 2500 years.
Culturally, modern Greeks are more descendents of the Byzantine Empire than what we think of in terms of Athens, Sparta, or even Macedonia.
As for defaulting, they’ve basically called the hand. What do the Germans care about more… do they want their money back, or do they want to prevent the idea that one can enter and leave the moentary union depending on whether one had warm or cold eggs that morning.
It looks like they aren’t getting their money back in any case (we kinda knew this already, up to now has been mostly an attempt at face-saving), so the question is whether it feels more important to punish the Greeks or have a European Monetary Union. If the latter, the question is how to square the European community’s promise of retained sovereignty with the fact that Europeans have essentially forefitted their right to an independent monetary policy.
Greeks are not the originators of western society, that woukd have to be Romans or Germanics…
Alex Tsipiras is a maximum bullshitter. I can’t believe this. On one hand, he wrote this morning a reconciliatory note to the EU, saying he wants to meet (some of) their terms. Then, on the other hand, he publicly encourages the Greek people to vote no on the referandum. He wants the Greeks to say No so that if they quit the EZ and destroy their economy, he can blame the democractic process. However, if he makes a deal with the creditors, he will still be a hero. What nonsense is this? It’s no surprise that Merkel doesn’t even want to talk to this guy.
the greeks have been in default about 90 of the past 200 years. its pretty sad but as constant violaters they should be punished. Greek liabiltieis are spread out and not concentrated. contagion is always a risk, but for this scenario it is prolly minimal. private sector barely has exposure. the only ppl with exposure are fiat countries, which can well print away the problem. liek the article below says, it is prolly going to be a greek tragedy only. the biggest problem imo is political instability. a huge drop real fast in their standard of living is prolly gonna produce sum really bad people over there.
Western civilization basically is a mix of Roman organization, Greek Philosophy, Judeo-Christian religion, and Germanic determination (plus some Germanic philosophy later on). But the Ancient Greeks were pretty influential on Roman society, and even more so in the Eastern Roman/Byzantine Empire, which was essentially Roman imperial autocracy, Christian religion, with Greek language, dress and social customs.
Orthodox cultures are a descendant of Greek via Byz, western culture has much more Germanic and Roman influence whereas the Greek remnants are mostly symbolic IMO and to some degree artificial. I mean, can we really say the English are cultural descendants of the Greeks when they are a Celtic-Germanic people formerly occupied by Latins?
Part of it is that a good portion of Western history was about varied groups trying to reassemble the Roman Empire after its fall. The French under the Carolingians, the Germans with their Holy Roman Empire. The interesting issue about the Romans is how pretty much as soon as they were conquered by barbarian tribes politically, the conquering cultures attempted to assimilate into the existing culture. I.e. the barbarian tribes tried to become more Roman-like, adopting Christianity, using Roman symbols of authority, etc…
A lot can happen as symbols change over 1500-2000 years, so English culture is not exactly a repeat of Roman culture, but it was still an orienting idea for what power struggles were about. In the West, I’ve come to see that it really was the French who spent the longest time trying to assert themselves as the cultural successors to the image of unity under the Roman empire. And for a good 300 years, the English figured that they were also the rulers of France. And indeed, under the early Plantaganets, their French domains were actually larger than their English ones.
[video:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1vIuulfS8e4]
It’s the sign of a great civilization when that happens, when people who conquer you militarily start adopting your customs. The Chinese had it, the ancient Egyptians had it, the Persians had it. To a lesser extent, you can see it with the Arab influences on Spanish and Portuguese culture, where - after the reconquista - much of southern Spain and Portugal still have a moorish flavor, even if it didn’t go so far as switching religions.
Roman culture was different during the kingdom of Rome, but absorbed a ton of Greek influences during the mid and late Republic, particularly in art, literature, and philosophy. The Roman tradition in the west is hard to separate from the Greek tradition. In the East, it went in a different direction and was more obvious because of the alphabet and language.
“It’s the sign of a great civilization when that happens, when people who conquer you militarily start adopting your customs.”
Kind of like how everyone in London eats curry?
Well, that’s different. As we all know, the British overseas Empire was a product of Britishers going on dangerous sea voyages in search of better tasting food.
I’m thinking more of things like Mongolians adopting Chinese customs and symbols of power after conquering them. Franks and Ostrogoths turning to Christianity after conquering Roman provinces. Greeks adopting pharonic dress and customs after conquering Egypt, etc.
That isn’t to say that Indian culture doesn’t count as one of the great civilizations; merely that the act of eating curry isn’t an example of what I was talking about.
Got it. So kind of like how everyone in Spain speaks Mexican.
my ex coworker was in greece for 2 years. he always talked about going to the nude beaches to see the tall swedish tourist girls. it is my dream to visit these beaches.
Because tacos >> paella.