^how did u do that, what frunctions? thanks
^ Benzo is the man! Yeah, those numbers make sense.
If you get bored (I’m sure you have better things to do), I’d be currious if Bloomberg shows any data on index earnings; index EPS, EPS change vs prior year, trailing and forward P/E, etc. This stuff is so opaque man, sent a follow up email to the CSI300 guys, no response of course. Talked to the guy who runs multpl.com, he says he gets this request all the time, but has no idea who as the data?
TRA is the function.
I tried to paste in the bbg screen shot pure but it won’t let me.
x2
How can foreigners invest in the SHSZ300? A brief google search yielded nothing useful…
ashr
I’ve had a bunch of posts on this, but it gets confusing for “China-newbies”, so here’s a summary…
There is the Shanghai exchange (SSE) which is bigger and better, and the Shenzhen exchange (SZSE) which is smaller and higher priced. DIRECT Since Nov '14 foreigners can directly buy individual SSE stocks thru the SH/HK-Connect link (real brokers like IBRK have it, it’s easy). The SZSE exchange is planned for release to foreigners, probably 2016. ETF On NYSE you want ASHR (and options on CBOE), on HKE there is 3188. These are CSI-300 Index ETFs, the largest 300 stocks on the SSE/SZSE exchanges. As of now it’s 15.8X P/E, at 10-yr historic averages. FUTURES On SGX there are XINA50 Futures (again, IBKR has all this cool international stuff). These are liquid, near 24hrs trading, and track the largest 50 stocks (huge concentration in financials though). Killer for hedging/shorting, and playing press releasing outside of Asia hours. These are the only three PA approved vehicles! There’s a lot of impure junk out there that includes H-shares, B-shares, P-chips, exposure via synthetics. Yuk. I also hate BABA and BIDU, perhaps unjustly, but I see ADRs as the issuer playing to Western fantasies – they know they can get silly AMZN-like valuations in the US, in CN Jack would have got much less.
UPDATE: omg, Bloomberg reporting the intention is to include the CHINEXT board in the SZSE-HK feed. Now that would be a wild ride, I wanna see what goes on in there just for thrills…
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2015-11-11/shanghai-hong-kong-link-connect-or-disconnect-
love it when someone talks in 3rd person
returns on some of the individual chinese stocks are just astronomical the last 4 years…
btw anoeone know how to attach a jpeg on here? trying to post screenshots…
I have not been able to. The best that I have managed is to link to existing photos elsewhere on the web.
If someone else knows how, I’d like to know, too.
in chrome, right click image, select copy image, click white box within AF, right click paste
Enjoy life
interesting GS going long on EM, i think might be too early. commodities still have not stabilized
p.s. interesting predictions in the next article under
^ That Goldman “analysis” seems like garbage though.
“While Colombia, South Africa, Turkey and Malaysia still need to tackle their current-account imbalances, Russia, India and Poland are among nations that have improved enough for their assets to rally, according to Goldman Sachs.”
Except India is expensive even after the pullback (21X), it’s going to rally into bubble mode? Why would anyone buy that when you can still get China at historic valuations (15X)? Russia, uhh I’d go Brazil before I went Russia.
“Goldman Sachs said the biggest risk is a significant depreciation of the yuan. A stronger dollar and slower growth in China may prompt policy makers to allow the currency to fall with a spillover effect rippling through emerging markets, the report said. In our view, the fallout from such a shift is the primary risk, the analysts said.”
Seriously this crap again? How many times have CN clearly said they won’t be doing that? That’s the primary risk?? Uhh I’d say the primary risk is DM imploding and dragging the whole world down again (just like in 2008).
I guess Goldman is a big place, sometimes analyses come out that make a lot of sense, and then there’s just weird nonsense like this. Agree people are croweded into DM and should diversify though.
[original post removed]
I agree they tend to move with the index they are tracking, usually MSCI Emerging Markets Index…. Emerging Markets have performed poorly since 2006, and pricing is at this point rediculesly cheap if you ask me…
Check out my take:
http://oisteinhelle.blogspot.no/2015/11/the-time-to-buy-emerging-markets…
America’s new normal is “basically zero” (Trump is actually semi-correct about something), which makes relative valuations blatantly off…
America’s New Normal Will Look Pretty Slow, Fed Economist Says
The new normal for long-run U.S. economic growth could be 1.5 percent to 1.75 percent a year, a major slowdown from the 1990s and early 2000s as an aging population, more gradual gains in education and weak productivity growth take their toll.
While that paints a glum picture, there’s reason not to give up hope, because productivity could pick up from its current subdued pace and boost growth in the process. [sure, and pigs could sprout wings and fly into space]
Today Yellen is talking about this stuff…
In her crude economic analysis, and defense of her actions; Yellen thinks there is something wrong with the US economy because it is pulling to steady state 0% growth and high unemployment. And so, she “ran markets hot for a long time” trying to correct that “problem”. Except that failed. Now she admits there are risks, and these are outweighing benefits. So she will walk away from this strategy soon, or get fired, rates will go up, and outrageous DM valuations will come down.
Just how the CFA program told us things worked. 
Everyone knows yields going up is bad for US stocks.
I’m looking forward to it.
Factset puts out a really good summary of S&P 500 earnings (see link below), which shows how P/E multiples are definitely ahead of 10yr historicals (a peak on the internet reveals the same for longer periods).
https://www.factset.com/websitefiles/PDFs/earningsinsight/earningsinsight_10.14.16
There’s another chart I found by DB that basically states this bull-market has largely been generated by the compression of the ERP (vs. say earnings growth or multiple expansion).
http://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-strength-is-about-the-equity-risk-premium-2016-7
It is similar for real estate in which cap rates (operating yields) have compressed considerably. However, the spread between the 10yr and cap rates is historically wide (the ERP is also still above its historical average). As such, you’re still seeing a lot of investment despite above average valuations. Meaning theoretically asset values have more room to go up.
Barclays also put out an interesting piece (The End of Financial Engineering?) that US corporates are raking up debt (debt/EBITDA is at a century high, though D/E is low), but the majority of that is going to share buybacks or dividends. Also notable, earnings alone would not cover the shear amount of buybacks. What is interesting about this is that management teams are essentially putting capital back to investors and not in their businesses. That might be the right move by management teams, but it does signal a limitation on potential future earnings growth.
This does worry me and I have to agree with PA a lot here on the US. Europe doesn’t look any better (though some pockets could be interesting like Spain, which has come out of it’s liquidity crisis).
PA where I disagree with you on the surface (as I don’t likely nearly have as much knowledge on China as you do) is the downside to the Chinese economy in the near-term (say 1-5 years) from the buildup of debt (mid-term, I like China a lot). I’m not as concerned with the debt level (now in-line with developed markets at say 250-300% of GDP: http://www.visualcapitalist.com/chinas-debt-bomb/ ), but by how quickly it’s climbed in the last decade (http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2015/02/04/chinas-total-debt-load-equals-282-of-gdp-raising-its-economic-risks/) - 150% to now ~300%. This is really worrisome for two reasons: 1) debt-fueled GDP growth has hit a wall and we are in fact seeing its limits as growth subsides; and 2) much of that debt so quickly accumulated is likely to have been invested poorly (I take similar issue with often touted Keynesian style US government stimulus spending - I suspect the ROIs for many projects are horrendous).
All told, I’m not sure what to quite make of it all yet, so largely I’m sitting in cash as I see more downside than upside (it’s quite painful not earning anything though!).
Same; would love for a correction.
You need to take the size of the country into account. A 20 Trillion economy growing at 2% provides a lot more investment opportunity than a 0.5 - 2 Trillion economy growing at 7%. The smaller economy’s stock market might outperform in a nominal sense, but it can easily fall short when you look at the growth in total market cap. Just like penny stocks, those returns look great on paper but can’t be shared by all. --in theory anyways. When you have multiple EM economies that fit the bill my argument kind of goes out the window then.