I’m saying that hurt. Wouldn’t mind that being the bottom for a while. The strong dollar started it and then fear set in and oil kept falling even as the dollar paused. I wouldn’t guess that the World is going to stop using this stuff anytine soon. I’m thinking the decline caused some producers to rethink their risk tolerance and they increased their hedging. Certainly caused to me to rethink my tolerance. Didn’t add to energy on the way down, but at least standing strong at the moment.
Energy is awful broad. Care to be more specific?
Some think it was HF closing out their hyper inflation bets as a result of the rallying dollar.
I can not believe the word manipulation is being used on a CFA forum. I expected more. Where was the cry for manipulation when oil was going up?
The russian economy is heavily dependent on its export of energy. How can you import if you can not export? Our economy isn’t. If the Russians keep supporting their currency, they’ll be running out of fx reserves pretty soon. And their currency is still tumbling. What they do have is tons of gold.
The Saudi’s can scream as loud as they want. If my stocks are telling me they want to go up, no force on earth is going to make them go down!
Obviously something like oil is going to be manipulated all over the freakin’ place, thus manipulation must be taken into account in one’s analysis. Which is why I don’t mess with oil or currency markets, too complicated (for me).
^^
I wouldn’t even try a short term oil play.
However, I am asking myself if now could be a good time to take a position as a long term investment.
How is everybody’s take on this ? Where do you guys see oil heading in 5,10,15 years ?
IMO one fondamental question to answer in that regard is what will be the net effect of the increased demand from developing countries vs. the increased supply from the USA (by fracking).
^I don’t invest on the commodity. I invest in associated companies, like infrastructure and a lesser extent producers.
Canadian. light oil. upstream only.
Is the Canadian guys mostly tar sands? I was reading something about how tar sands may actually be cheaper to produce than most people realize recently
We had a speaker come in yesterday and used the graphic in this presentation:
http://www.seadrill.com/ShowFile.ashx?FileInstanceId=887a254a-f404-4b7d-8ba2-0d93283d7aa2
I’m not an oil and gas expect, yet anyways, but thought it was a cool graphic to add to the discussion. The height of the boxes represents the range of cost values. The width is the percentage of market share, if I remember right.
Canadian oil is about: 25% conventional light 5% gas condensates 70% oilsands/heavy oil (45% exported as heavy, 25% upgraded synthetic light) Oilsands projects are highly variable on break even. Different technologies at play, some experimental. Big difference between SAGD and mining. You need to look at projects individually.
CEO of Total killed by drunk snow plough driver: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-21/french-oil-giant-boss-dies-in-moscow-executive-jet-crash.html
Petrodollar warfare doesn’t exist? Total CEO and critic of paying for oil in USD dies in an odd drunken mishap in Russia. Yep, I’m breaking out the tinfoil.
Man, his plane was Total’d.
^You really plowed right into that pun.
^ Damn, I knew that comment wouldn’t take off.
^ You guys have no visibility into this story. Looks like a snow job to me.
^Man that was cold.
Reading about this dude, he definitely makes our BSD list.
Can we just take a moment to thank Obama for validating my comments in this thread? He talked about this during last night’s SOTU in regards screwing with Russia.