your wife?
Who would pay $20k for my wife in this economy?
watches ftw
My monitor might very well have tea sprayed all over it if I weren’t reading this on an iPad.
I love how everyone went all CFA on this. What if it was more of a gamble with those exact odds and terms? You have to put up all of your available cash (savings, retirement accounts, etc; but not “hard assets”) to play a game.
The game is similar to roulette only 80% of the numbers are red and 20% are black. You must bet on red and if you win you’ll be paid 300% of your bet in three years. If you lose, you lose everything.
That’s how I was thinking about it. I don’t like the chance that 1 out of 5 times I’d lose, so I probably wouldn’t play. If the roulette wheel was 90% red, yes, I’d play.
I also agree it makes total sense how close to retirement you are. If I was 59, I wouldn’t gamble with it even at 95% odds.
The 80% really matters if you can do multiple attempts. Since it is just one outcome not so sure if I’d do it. Luck ends up being too large a variable in flipping the coin just one time.
Would not play because expected utility does not make sense. Expected Utility at 300% return is about the same for me as at 100% return or even 50% return, and a loss would repressent a massive negative shift,
This was outstanding work. One of my favorite movies!