Pretty nominally. I’m not super active in my P.A. as most of my energy is directed towards the fund I work for. I’m just bearish on a lot of tech right now but you always run the risk of shorting the wrong name and running into a company getting bought out - there’s a lot of dumb money around that’s chasing M&A. So unless you really know a company isn’t a likely takeout candidate sometimes the best way to short a sector is through ETF or index.
thanks for the explanation 
We are soon entering the 6 month equity sweet spot (November - April). So if you’re thinking of going long or are bullish in general, sometime in the next few weeks could be a good time to get in.
No sarcasm, sometimes I go a year and forget this place exists. But now that I know this subform exists I’ll probably log in more often.
Uhh, so I’m not against my 2X return. It IS real cash, and now it’s in my pocket. But this run since 2008 is largely fantasy-land stuff fueled by massive market manipulation and wishful thinking. The reality is still fairly grim. Just my view of course, perhaps there are another 15 years of crazy money making…
I see what you’re saying but also it does depend on the security. Stocks that have underperformed YTD are likely to get whacked. Tax loss selling is something that is frequently seen in November and December, so if you are looking for something that has already underperformed but think there’s value, there’s a good chance it will underperform more and you’ll have a chance to buy them cheaper come year-end.
I can think of a multitude of reasons why the market is over-valued (mixed earnings results, falling commodity prices, China slowdown, mean reversion in major indices like tech/healthcare/internet that are up big YTD, and small caps especially those with leverage getting destroyed) and not many for why the market is undervalued.
Tread carefully.
Agreed, market might be overpriced, but i just can’t see how structurally things will change. I think we are very late in expansion cycle, but are we 6 months or so from recession? Not sure. Anyhow i bought a little bit on the dip, but i am still 50 cash / 50 stocks.
I’m rebalancing (selling some treasuries to buy some SPY) today
I am buying whatever you are selling today.
i’m selling a douce for $1 million. it’s all yours.
I can understand the inclination to lock in profits and get out the market for a wee breather but it is unwise, and it passes.
^truth. its a small correction in a largely elongated bull cycle due to increased uncertainty. best to buy when things are going down. we’re overdue for a correction and 7% aint really a big deal. PE’s are actually trading at less than 15x multiples for next year’s earnings. earnings continue to grow, im pretty sure if prices fall companies will juss step up on buybacks (its kind of a common financial engineering theme to increase EPS and defend prices). crude is down and will head lower, wsj article says us shale will cotnineu to be pumped until crude hits $75 while opec countries need to pump more in order to meet their budgets. interest is down with a pretty dovish federal reserve due to slowdown in euro and china. All other commodities are falling. china is capitulating and flooding everyone with steel or whatever other cheap crap they produce. some mines have absolutely stopped completely with prolly room for consolidation. We got dieseases adding uncertainty like h1n1, or ebola whatever is scaring everyone. All I am saying all this uncertainty and volatility is opportunity. dont lose your balls juss cuz of a lil downside. Get BIG
false. companies are known for halting or slowing buybacks when prices fall as shareholders want to know they have the capital to survive and grow and will not have to rely on debt markets for capital. ever wonder why buybacks peaked as the market peaked? expect buybacks to fall meaninfully if the market continues to weaken.
Market-timing isn’t my game. Buy and hold for me.
I’m buying nuggas!
IMO you are both right and it depends on the specific company and balance sheet in question. For every TCX that creates huge shareholder value with effective capital allocation, there is a Circuit City that spends $600 million buying their own stock at 52-week highs and then goes bankrupt almost immediately after (whoops). In general at least half of buybacks I see appear to be poorly timed and/or ineffective at creating value. It might be higher than that for the reasons Matt mentions, but there are definitely lots of other good examples of companies that know how to execute a buyback well.
I thought the same way at first when i read some crap in BI with data in the last 14 years. you would be right about share buybacks. but in a 50 yrs timeframe, it could go either way.
I see your point on debt and capital reqs but #1. debt is cheap with more qe likely to come for liquidity. there was a good bac note on tips about it maybe last week. #2 cash holdings by companies are at their peak, even though capex is above pre recession levels, most companies are still holding back due to lack of demand.
I feel like we’re oversold. We’ve known that Europe/China are weak. Not really that new. U.S. and U.K. are still expected to put up respectable GDP growth for H2. U.S. data hasn’t been that bad. Fed ending QE is significant, but it’s not like we haven’t known this would happen for months.
The biggest thing seems to be this sharp collapse in oil prices. IEA’s latest oil report (with August data) showed a modest decline in both supply and demand, which suggests that the demand curve (not quantity demanded) shifted, rather than a shift in the supply curve. So I’m a little worried about weaker oil demand (and what that means for the broader macroeconomic picture), but I don’t think it’s significant enough to suggest a global recession.
I transferred about 25% of 401k (as of the close, actually) from cash to a U.S. index fund. Am I crazy?
Bought a whole bunch today. Mostly blue chips though…
I’m going to wait until folks stop claiming this is a minor correction in a longer bull run. Once people start saying we are in bear land, then I’ll adjust my long/short ratio.