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Anyone with FX experience?

Nerdyblop wrote:

3 percent is good for a month. A cagr is 43 percent per year. The key is if you can keep it up.

Eh seems well within the realm of luck. Here’s a quick test: could you lose money on purpose trading FX CEO10k? (of course ex-trading fees)

Hey Hamilton, have a holly jolly Christmas.

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IsThereAny wrote:

Nerdyblop wrote:

3 percent is good for a month. A cagr is 43 percent per year. The key is if you can keep it up.

Eh seems well within the realm of luck. Here’s a quick test: could you lose money on purpose trading FX CEO10k? (of course ex-trading fees)

Ah! Thats a great exercise!

"But I don't think of you"..... Howard Roark

KMeriwetherD wrote:

IsThereAny wrote:

Nerdyblop wrote:

3 percent is good for a month. A cagr is 43 percent per year. The key is if you can keep it up.

Eh seems well within the realm of luck. Here’s a quick test: could you lose money on purpose trading FX CEO10k? (of course ex-trading fees)

Ah! Thats a great exercise!

Would it be possible that it’s maybe just a little bit of skill though? Because you can find horror stories where this market beats the living sht out of people time and time again. So, at least I’m positive. 

¯\_(ツ)_/¯ It be like that sometimes.

IsThereAny wrote:

Nerdyblop wrote:

3 percent is good for a month. A cagr is 43 percent per year. The key is if you can keep it up.

Eh seems well within the realm of luck. Here’s a quick test: could you lose money on purpose trading FX CEO10k? (of course ex-trading fees)

Sure, just do what he’s doing but backwards.

Sweep the Leg wrote:

Sure, just do what he’s doing but backwards.

Put a taco in it already would’ya?

¯\_(ツ)_/¯ It be like that sometimes.

It’s definitely possible but most likely improbable! I believe 90 percent of retail traders lose money!

I love my cheese. I got to have my cheddar.

Nerdyblop wrote:

It’s definitely possible but most likely improbable! I believe 90 percent of retail traders lose money!

Well, I am beating the statistics. After exactly one month of trading my account is now up 20.292%. I’ll be taking my money and running at this point though - I have a car to buy and need the cash. 

But I hope to return. Also, I can post the transaction history if anyone would like. But, I turned $500.00 into $601.46 as of a few minutes ago. Maybe it’s luck. But if 90% of traders end up losing money, I have objectively beaten the odds - which opens up for considerable discussion I may be able to do this successfully over the long run. 

edit: After a $20.00 withdrawal fee I only get to keep $581.46. That’s a bunch of bologna. I’ve just been horse fkked by a withdrawal fee. Jesus. 

¯\_(ツ)_/¯ It be like that sometimes.

CEO10K-DAY wrote:

Nerdyblop wrote:

It’s definitely possible but most likely improbable! I believe 90 percent of retail traders lose money!

Well, I am beating the statistics. After exactly one month of trading my account is now up 20.292%. I’ll be taking my money and running at this point though - I have a car to buy and need the cash. 

But I hope to return. Also, I can post the transaction history if anyone would like. But, I turned $500.00 into $601.46 as of a few minutes ago. Maybe it’s luck. But if 90% of traders end up losing money, I have objectively beaten the odds - which opens up for considerable discussion I may be able to do this successfully over the long run. 

edit: After a $20.00 withdrawal fee I only get to keep $581.46. That’s a bunch of bologna. I’ve just been horse fkked by a withdrawal fee. Jesus. 

So you went from up 3% over a month of trading to up 20% over a month +5 days? Yes my friend, that’s luck. Don’t be fooled by randomness.

Hey Hamilton, have a holly jolly Christmas.

IsThereAny wrote:

CEO10K-DAY wrote:

Nerdyblop wrote:

It’s definitely possible but most likely improbable! I believe 90 percent of retail traders lose money!

Well, I am beating the statistics. After exactly one month of trading my account is now up 20.292%. I’ll be taking my money and running at this point though - I have a car to buy and need the cash. 

But I hope to return. Also, I can post the transaction history if anyone would like. But, I turned $500.00 into $601.46 as of a few minutes ago. Maybe it’s luck. But if 90% of traders end up losing money, I have objectively beaten the odds - which opens up for considerable discussion I may be able to do this successfully over the long run. 

edit: After a $20.00 withdrawal fee I only get to keep $581.46. That’s a bunch of bologna. I’ve just been horse fkked by a withdrawal fee. Jesus. 

So you went from up 3% over a month of trading to up 20% over a month +5 days? Yes my friend, that’s luck. Don’t be fooled by randomness.

Haha, I know. I am whole heartedly agreeing with you. I just want to look cool for once in front of you guys. 

¯\_(ツ)_/¯ It be like that sometimes.

I just know that the same algo I have to trade equities with works well with currencies, so, it’s very important how to trade for beginners in India main demo account, because is difficult to trade in forex market

I am studying binary fx because I wish to be trader professional

Have you seen any currency hedge fund make money over time?  I haven’t, they make big money then they lose big money.  Only the banks make money consistently.  Having said that, FX is super interesting and tempting, I can totally understand why you want to dip your toes in there.

Don't be a tough guy. Don't be a fool. I will call you later.

I know a guy who consistently makes money in FX as a day trader… know how? Martingale.  He trades super small size compared to his account and just adds when the market moves against him.  Yea… he is consistently profitable…. but he devotes 50 hours a week to it and makes the “risk free” rate of return on capital.  frownWoohooo

Lol…observing him is what made me finally quit trading.

"But I don't think of you"..... Howard Roark

it’s like playing roulette. you just keep betting black. and double your bet everytime you lose!

I love my cheese. I got to have my cheddar.

Nerdyblop wrote:

it’s like playing roulette. you just keep betting black. and double your bet everytime you lose!

I have a buddy that’s doing a variation of this strategy with football. He’s actually starting this week. He’s a super smart dude and manages a ton of money, but he can’t seem to wrap his head around having to double his bet every time he loses. I even sent him a spreadsheet detailing when he’ll have to take out a second mortgage just to be able to place a bet to make it back to even. Granted, it would be seven losses in a row, but weirder things have happened.

Sorry everyone, the “CEO $10K a day forex fund” is not accepting new investors at this time. But please do check back in the future!

¯\_(ツ)_/¯ It be like that sometimes.

lol stl i can picture it.

im going to bet 1k on black. lose (execute order 66)

2k on black. lose. (no sweat)

4k on black please. lose. (the bigger the bill baby!!)

8k on black plase. lose. (no chance it’ll happen again)

16k black sir…. lose (****kkk)

32k black god. sir the limit is at 20k. allright then 20k on black. lose (Never again!)

I love my cheese. I got to have my cheddar.

Had a former colleague show me this Forex trading app that he claimed was running off an algo. Looked like he had some profits but mathematically fx rates and movements follow a stochastic differential process, ie it’s spray and pray, gambling whatever you want to call it…at least in the short term anyway

There are some papers out there that suggest over the longer term, think 3-5 years, FX rates can be predicted. Although these should probably be approached with cautious optimism. Could you stay solvent that long though while continuously trading is the bigger question? ;)

CEO10K-DAY wrote:

Sorry everyone, the “CEO $10K a day forex fund” is not accepting new investors at this time. But please do check back in the future!

CEO - how did this workout?  I saw you had 3% after a month (solid). Did the good times continue?

I’ve been playing with EA’s in MT4 for months now and it is so much harder than I had thought when programming it in excel previously. Spread really does kill.

PistolPt wrote:

CEO10K-DAY wrote:

Sorry everyone, the “CEO $10K a day forex fund” is not accepting new investors at this time. But please do check back in the future!

CEO - how did this workout?  I saw you had 3% after a month (solid). Did the good times continue?

I’ve been playing with EA’s in MT4 for months now and it is so much harder than I had thought when programming it in excel previously. Spread really does kill.

Sorry that I missed out on this before. But to answer your question, the good times have definitely continued. At the end of June I deposited $350.00 back into my forex account and started trading again, mainly just because it’s fun and I enjoy it. But, as I type this out now, I have it at $805.45. So, I would say for just after a month to have 130% return is pretty good. 

My strategy is pretty simple - although, I will admit, there is a lot of “OH **** OH **** OH **** OH ****” along the way (so, obviously it’s not as methodical as I would like to claim).

1. I’ve observed the fact that the trend is steadily down since 2017. In other words, it’s hard to lose when you’re selling the Euro - as long as you just ‘wait’ it out.

2. Understanding that the longer term trends are down, I just wait until the shorter term price action reverts back to it’s moving average (honestly, I don’t even play around with them. MT4 defaults to a simple 14 period moving average) and then short it.

3. Once a trade is winning, I usually just exit when my trade is positive between $50-80 (I’m only using an initial investment of $350 - so, with the amount of leverage I’m using, if I’m winning like that on a big trade, I cash out and walk away, because a $50.00 win is well, “good enough for me”). It’s pretty hard though, and this is the part I’ll admit I can’t claim any skill on - because I have seen numerous times when my trades are up about $130.00 and I’ll just sit there and be like “well, maybe it will keep going” - but then the price action starts rising and all of a sudden my winning trade has already given back $75 or so, then I close it out of fear of losing it all and walk away.

4. So, I admit, it’s not technically “skill” - but, as long as I’m on the right side of the longer term trends, as long as I don’t over leverage my account, I should be okay in the long run. 

5. Yes, there are times where my trades are down $80-100 - but again, usually the longer term trend comes in and saves my ass and then some. This has happened NUMEROUS times.

TLDR; observe the longer term trend (which for 2019 on the Euro it’s basically been a sideways market). As long as it’s down, I should keep making money. And I do have a couple of software programs that tell me the direction of the trends on the long term (although, you can pretty readily easily just use your eyeballs)… So, as long as I keep changing with the long term trends, I should be okay to keep making money. Even in sideways markets, you can still make money if you ride price action back to the mean. 

edit: You see where this is going right? Put my car up as collateral, borrow a million bucks, and then maximize my leverage to the point where just collecting as little as 10 pips means you made $5K. That’s the dream right? I’d quit my job so fkking hard if I could do that.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯ It be like that sometimes.

I decided to go long this morning - account now at $850.00 - If I’m getting lucky…. then at least I’m getting lucky.

EDIT: LOOOL Thanks Trump! 

¯\_(ツ)_/¯ It be like that sometimes.

this post deserves an up vote 

"You want a quote? Haven’t I written enough already???"

RIP

igor555 wrote:

this post deserves an up vote 

Closing the week over $900 - I’m going to shut up now and come back in a year again. See you then.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯ It be like that sometimes.

you ever think of upping the ante?

I love my cheese. I got to have my cheddar.

Nerdyblop wrote:

you ever think of upping the ante?

Always. If I had $100K in the bank - I’d have quit my job already.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯ It be like that sometimes.

Hah
Pack in the mail, it’s gone (Uh)
She like how I smell, cologne (Yeah)
I just signed a deal, I’m on
Yeah, yeah
I go where I want, I’m good (Good)
Play if you want, let’s do it (Ha)
I’m a young CEO, Suge (Yeah)
Yeah, yeah

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KvuQNNVrbtM

hell ud have 300k! tank about it

I love my cheese. I got to have my cheddar.

CEO10K-DAY wrote:

Hi,

I’ve started the same algos I have to trade stocks with to FX, and like the results. I’m interested in doing this because work basically has my balls in a vice grip when it comes to trading. I very seldom am able to get things pre-cleared. To make it worse, I like trading options, and there’s no guarantee that even if I can get cleared to load an options trade, that I’ll be cleared to sell it before it expires. I also have to hold those options for a minimum of thirty days - yeah, which is a deathtrap. However, there are absolutely no restrictions on me trading currencies… shwing! 

I have a few questions, maybe we could even connect in private?

… I guess the question I’m asking here is how do you measure volatility on currencies? Just like you would with stocks?

Yeah bro. If you do a distribution of daily returns from open to close you’ll quickly learn that FX is half as volatile as Equities. You could totally apply the same approach assuming you take a fundamental approach to understanding the drivers of returns. Best approach would be to avoid the excitement of “day trading” unless volatility picks up - use option pricing to derive vol expectations, and look for the big moves in FX. 

Got a good mate who cleans up pretty well doing mean reversion trades on ranges but he recently almost **** the bed with a JPY position, summit meeting saved the day. Wouldn’t pursue this approach but you should definitely explore the fundamental plays over 3/6/12 months 

Pushing will get a person almost anywhere, except through a door marked “pull”

Tez4715 wrote:

CEO10K-DAY wrote:

Hi,

I’ve started the same algos I have to trade stocks with to FX, and like the results. I’m interested in doing this because work basically has my balls in a vice grip when it comes to trading. I very seldom am able to get things pre-cleared. To make it worse, I like trading options, and there’s no guarantee that even if I can get cleared to load an options trade, that I’ll be cleared to sell it before it expires. I also have to hold those options for a minimum of thirty days - yeah, which is a deathtrap. However, there are absolutely no restrictions on me trading currencies… shwing! 

I have a few questions, maybe we could even connect in private?

… I guess the question I’m asking here is how do you measure volatility on currencies? Just like you would with stocks?

Yeah bro. If you do a distribution of daily returns from open to close you’ll quickly learn that FX is half as volatile as Equities. You could totally apply the same approach assuming you take a fundamental approach to understanding the drivers of returns. Best approach would be to avoid the excitement of “day trading” unless volatility picks up - use option pricing to derive vol expectations, and look for the big moves in FX. 

Got a good mate who cleans up pretty well doing mean reversion trades on ranges but he recently almost **** the bed with a JPY position, summit meeting saved the day. Wouldn’t pursue this approach but you should definitely explore the fundamental plays over 3/6/12 months 

Bro you ought to introduce me to your “friend”. Been looking for someone to explain to me long/short gamma hedging. You’re talking about the exact things I’m trying to do. It’s not hard to look at a chart and see that for every 20 zigs, you can expect a couple zags. 

That’s really how I’d describe my trading approach - which is now +367%

¯\_(ツ)_/¯ It be like that sometimes.

For real though - I’ve now turned $350.00 into over $2,000.00

Is the smart thing to do cash out a little so that I can realize a win? - Might as well pay down some debt, no?

¯\_(ツ)_/¯ It be like that sometimes.

imagine if you dropped 2000,  you’d have 11.5k!

I love my cheese. I got to have my cheddar.

CEO10K-DAY wrote:

For real though - I’ve now turned $350.00 into over $2,000.00

Is the smart thing to do cash out a little so that I can realize a win? - Might as well pay down some debt, no?

With decent returns you should be doubling down on yourself wink. Build up your pot so you don’t need to keep going to town with lots of leverage in your positions. 

Pushing will get a person almost anywhere, except through a door marked “pull”