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The Great Green North

Pot stocks jump after report says Coca-Cola and Aurora in talks to brew marijuana-infused drinks

  • Aurora rallied more than 15 percent in Canada while Tilray jumped 7 percent after a report says Coca-Cola is in talks to brew weed-infused drinks with Aurora.
  • Corona beer maker Constellation Brands upped its bet on the industry last month, announcing an additional $4 billion stake in Canopy Growth.
  • Molson Coors, too, announced in August that its Canadian unit is entering into a deal that will develop cannabis-infused beverages in Canada.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/17/pot-stocks-jump-on-news-that-coke-and-au...

you basically need to come from a target school pedigree/work at prestigious firm in the US/have a really good connection.

- AF hivemind

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Sweep the Leg wrote:

^^I was talking more about wine and spirits, not so much beer. If a parallel has to be made, I’d say weed is most like wine. Yes, there’s obviously a bigger market for two-buck chuck and boxed wine (which is actually pretty ok), but the high-end wine market is also huge. 

Honestly, I’m not sure we’re really even disagreeing with each other. My main point was there’s going to be a market for all types of weed.

which i agree with. i think there will be a good sized market at the high end. probably 20%-50% of the flower market will be high end. the problem is that literally every single pot producer is going after and gearing production for this 20%-50% of the flower market which amounts to only 10%-20% of the total cannabis market (based on current flower to edible/oil mix). in order to make the low end profitable, you need to produce more cheaply. ~80% of production will need to shift to lower end. nobody is doing this. this involves writing off facilities that are too expensive to produce the junkier stuff, new capex and much longer periods of unprofitability than literally everyone is expecting.

Why do you think current market share percentages are relevant? I’m pretty sure moonshine consumption decreased after the 21st amendment was passed in the states, even as alcohol consumption increased. Comparing a black market to a legal one just doesn’t make sense. 

I’m not saying you are wrong, MLA. I’m just saying that I’m not buying your logic.

 Imagno/Getty Images)

you basically need to come from a target school pedigree/work at prestigious firm in the US/have a really good connection.

- AF hivemind

these market share percentages are for places where weed is already legal. majority of the market is oils and edibles (generally made from oils).

Aurora stock halted.

you basically need to come from a target school pedigree/work at prestigious firm in the US/have a really good connection.

- AF hivemind

Update, I’m up 250% on my MEDFF (currently holding ACBFF, after MEDFF acquired) as I approach long-term capital gains. My US plays have traded sideways with lots of vol; however, they are earlier in the trend. I’ve let my ACBFF run, so Canada is about 2x the weight of my US companies in my MJ sleeve.

I think the liquidity influx from an NYSE listing for ACBFF will drive the stock up, at which point I will likely trim and redeploy. Taxes are a consideration, however. I bought four times, so I can work the tax lot game, but it won’t help that much.

you basically need to come from a target school pedigree/work at prestigious firm in the US/have a really good connection.

- AF hivemind

With Canada going full legal tomorrow, I could see a temporary pullback. 

Everyone, including their grandmother’s blind dog is hyped about weed businesses at the moment. 

People with no weed experience are getting loans and opening up their own stores. Some of the demand will just be a temporary surge from the sheer influx of retailers, some of which are too optimistic,. Wait a few months to see what the true demand is.

Also, don’t ever put weed in the freezer. Keep your dank in a glass jar with a perfect air seal, and at room temperature in total darkness. Fill the jar completely, but the buds should still be able to move a bit. Every now and then go shake up the jar a couple times. Leave it like that for a year, or two, It’ll age like a fine wine. 

MPX, which I first mentioned on 8 June, 2018 here (although I’ve owned it longer), just announced a transaction for approximately a 30% premium in iAnthus shares. That’s two take outs since I started posting in this thread, with similar premiums. M&A market becoming established.

Edit: acquisition is actually greater than 30%, since the transaction is only for MPX’s US based business. MPX shareholders will retain shares of a company owning the international businesses.

you basically need to come from a target school pedigree/work at prestigious firm in the US/have a really good connection.

- AF hivemind

Yayyywork wrote:

ACBFF just pumped 55mm into my pre-ipo play TGOD for 18% stake. Also includes options to increase stake when hitting milestones and a supply contract for up to 20% of production

ACBFF (soon to simply be ACB, as they are listing on NYSE on 10/23) sold their entire stake a couple of days ago.

you basically need to come from a target school pedigree/work at prestigious firm in the US/have a really good connection.

- AF hivemind

brain_wash_your_face wrote:

MPX, which I first mentioned on 8 June, 2018 here (although I’ve owned it longer), just announced a transaction for approximately a 30% premium in iAnthus shares. That’s two take outs since I started posting in this thread, with similar premiums. M&A market becoming established.

Edit: acquisition is actually greater than 30%, since the transaction is only for MPX’s US based business. MPX shareholders will retain shares of a company owning the international businesses.


Although I bought it for no reason other than it looked like a decent stock, I’m happy to have lucked into the gains on MPX.

Still long APH and CGC and that’s about it for me. These valuations are making me a little nervous, although I would have said that in BTC when it broke that 2 year stretch in the mid 400s (I sold at mid 700) and it ended up going to 20k so what do I know about bubbles?

top sellers in Ontario in the month of October… CBD capsules that can be made from low grade cannabis and flowers priced at levels that are competitive with street value, not the guys who are focused on high quality, high cost weed. maybe things will change with time but i’m thinking not. the vast majority of consumers can’t tell the difference or nor about the difference between $9/g greenhouse weed and $15/g greenhouse weed. why not introduce $5/g outdoor grown and see how many move down the ladder. as i suspected, majority of flower market is at the low end, not high end, despite the most recognizable brands being at the high end.

Wow I’m shocked. Canopy growth valued in the billions but they can’t figure out how to grow weed. They’re not alone either. The majority of the legal weed I’ve tried sucks. Maybe I’m just unlucky and this isn’t the experience most customers got, but I think the companies just suck at this stuff still. 

I tried about $300 worth of their weed in my province from 3 different stores. And about 2/3 of it was some of the worst weed I’ve smoked in my life.  I bought a few strands all supposed to be strong weed, but there’s no potency, it doesn’t get you high. It was more like a cigarette than weed. Short little buzz for 5 min if that. Also tastes awful and isn’t cured well. 

The other 1/3 of their weed was actually good. 

But wtf is the company doing. You don’t sell bad weed. You certainly dont take poorly grown weed, label it as 22 % thc when in reality it’s 5% or less, put it in a dark package where the customer can’t tell until after purchase, and then charge him 30-50% more than what he used to pay.  It’s not a formula for success. 

My guy always has great stuff. 3 years and he’s always supplied, and it’s always great weed. And his prices are way cheaper. Didn’t take him a billion dollars to figure it out lol. Like seriously what do they think people will do. You can go buy weed in a legal store which is essentially a game of pick the cup with the ball under it.

Or you can go to someone you trust, where you know what you’re buying, and save a bunch of money at the same time. 

Anyways sorry for rambling on. 

There was a lot of hype about legalization. Alot of us just assumed these guys were holding the holy grail of mary jane, But if half or more of the weed they sell sucks, then the companies will die out and be replaced, unless they bring quality control standards up to par with the black market..because no one will buy bad weed. Especially not when it’s $20 weed, that they claim is just as good as your $40 street weed, and ask for $50 for it.  

Unprofessional in the most extreme.

Honestly, I’m pretty dumb with all this finance crap. But I know good weed. 

This stuff is soooo sh*tty it’s ridiculous. 

How can they sell that garbage and sleep well at night. It really ticks me off. 

This sh*t is so bad! I’m the biggest weed addict you’ll know. But it was so bad, I just gave it away.  I GAVE IT AWAY. Me, the biggest weed addict in the world, and I won’t even smoke it. Like wtf lol. Is so bad, .. so bad. Smh 

It’ll be really nice if regulations slacken a bit so all the small craft growups can afford to join the legal game. But then again, it’s easy to imagine big business going out of its way to stop that as much as possible. 

Weed isn’t a precise and fairly standardized product like some other commodities. The large producers seem like they trying to monopolize the industry as if it is, but it won’t work like that and it’s actually hurting their cause. Would work alot better for them if they allowed for alot more competitors.

They are better off allowing for smaller competitors and becoming a smaller competitor themself if that is what it takes to fill the stores mostly with good weed. 

That way i’m still going to the store where their weed is sold, and if everything else I buy in the store seems good then I bet you good money I’m going to buy some of their stuff too sometimes. As it happens, when you feel most of the stuff in the store isn’t good, overpriced, too dry, etc, then after a couple times you don’t feel like purchasing anything in the store. You ditch the store and go to a street dealer or illegal website you’ve trusted so far. 

“Trusted so far”, really sums up the pothead’s mentality. 

They completely disrespect the mindset of the pot consumer. He is acquainted to shopping around. If he gets a bad deal or a bad bag of weed, he isn’t likely to stay with that dealer for very long.. So he won’t. He loses trust in the source very quickly. He has learnt to be skeptical and cynical of those who try to sell him weed. But when he finds a good source he holds onto that and places value in it. A pothead is also a very loyal customer when you win his business.  

To me it seems like they are mainly getting sales from the casual users at the moment. Alot of daily users tried it to start, but I haven’t heard of anyone who hasn’t given up and buys the majority of the weed from their other sources. A daily user smokes 10-20 times the amount of weed as a casual. Doesn’t matter how many weed themed frat parties you throw, the casual crowd is never going to outsmoke the daily users. So without the quality the current big names will not win. Black market going to hold the majority of the market share unless things change. 

And to be fair, I completely expect things will improve over time. Someone will figure out that’s what the name of the game is now. Mass produce yet good quality.There isn’t a shortage of weed supply.. there is just a shortage of good legal weed.. Some company will figure out that it’s only going to win via free market forces. Regulations to keep competitors away doesn’t actual work here because the main competitor, the black market, doesn’t follow the law. 

I only wonder if smoking weed will lose its appeal one day like hash did. I wasn’t old enough back then to know it, but apparently most people smoked hash instead of weed up until weed started getting strong around 1990, give or take. It’s hard for me to imagine something like that because good weed’s been around ever since I was curious enough to try it, but the old hash guys say it used to be the same thing but too with hash but no more. 

 

Also, I tried a couple grams of the strongest THC strain a legal store had a couple days ago. I think it was also the most expensive in the store but I don’t know this for sure. 

Like I said before, sometimes the weed is okay. This one was okay it actually got me decently high, but still not as potent as my regular source, and it was still very dry and had a bad taste as well., so the smoke wasn’t the best but at least it got me high.  But 50%+ more expensive for what’s easily an inferior product in comparison? No thank you!  
 

Has anyone taken a look at KERN? Up 75% today. Sounds like they’re trying to figure out a way to facilitate non-cash payment options for pot shops. That’d be huge if possible.

Sweep the Leg wrote:

Has anyone taken a look at KERN? Up 75% today. Sounds like they’re trying to figure out a way to facilitate non-cash payment options for pot shops. That’d be huge if possible.

What do you mean by non-cash? I use my credit card every time I buy pot. 

¯\_(ツ)_/¯ It be like that sometimes.

CEO10K-DAY wrote:

Sweep the Leg wrote:

Has anyone taken a look at KERN? Up 75% today. Sounds like they’re trying to figure out a way to facilitate non-cash payment options for pot shops. That’d be huge if possible.

What do you mean by non-cash? I use my credit card every time I buy pot. 

Yeah, somehow your state found a way around that. The regulations are changing fast so I’m sure I need a refresher on the laws, but I believe it’s still very difficult for banks to process transactions at dispensaries. Since cannabis is still illegal under federal law, the banks either can’t or are highly (ha, high) adverse to work with growers/sellers. This has led to dozens of stories of pot shop owners getting robbed at the end of the business day when they have to take all the cash they received that day to make a night deposit. The shops I’ve been to in CA (SF, LA, and SD) have all been cash only.

If KERN can figure out a way to process payments digitally (I have no idea if this means a Venmo type solution or credit cards…) it’d be a very big win for the industry.

Been in Organigram (OGI) for 2 years. It’s the only marijuana stock I own and will hold this sucker indefinitely. Solid financials, strong growth in a friendly east coast market. Also listed on the Nasdaq Global Select market for the US investors. 

So, is all the growth basically tapped in these investments? 

¯\_(ツ)_/¯ It be like that sometimes.

yeah most of them will die. they all basically have no revenues, the government’s own pre-legalization document shows that the current price differential between legal and illegal cannabis means the legal cannabis market will be 1/3 of what was expected. so oversupply is looking like it will be 6x demand for the foreseeable future. even canopy was expected to be on pace for ~$1B in revenues by now but its looking like hitting ~$400M will be difficult. the small guys will run out of money soon if they don’t find new investors to throw money into the fire.