Hi All, I’m in my tenth season of fantasy baseball and am only running one league this year. I am in fourth place right now out of 12 teams in a standard scoring 5x5 head-to-head league. Many of players got off to a slow start but are coming around in a major way. In the last five weeks, I’ve won at least 8 of the 10 categories after being below .500 at one point. I have also benefited from some terrific waiver wire adds including Brett Gardner, Brennan Boesch, Edinson Volquez, and Carlos Santana, as well as a couple of trades that helped me acquire Evan Longoria and Dan Haren. I want to make a strong run at winning this season, so I need your help to optimize my roster! As you look at my roster, what do you think I should think about doing in terms of remaining competitive in the playoffs? I’d like to upgrade at second base since Chone Figgins has had a down season, but are there any other moves you’d make if you were me, knowing that in most cases I’d have to trade hitting to get pitching or vice versa? which players are most expendable? I’m thinking that Brett Gardner and Brennan Boesch are starting to cool off…Stephen Strasburg could be trade bait since he’ll probably be done by early September because of innings limits…and Dan Haren and Zach Greinke might be trade bait too, since I don’t see them doing substantially better than they are now and perhaps people value them more than they should be worth because of their performance in prior years. Anyway, let me know what you all think of this roster and whether I should stand pat, or try to make some trades. Thanks! HITTERS C - Carlos Santana 1B - Lance Berkman 2B - Chone Figgins 3B - Evan Longoria SS - Rafael Furcal OF - Ryan Braun, Matt Holliday, Torii Hunter Util x2 - Brett Gardner, Aramis Ramirez Bench - Brennan Boesch, Shin-Soo Choo (DL) PITCHERS SP - Adam Wainwright SP - Zack Greinke SP - Stephen Strasburg SP - Dan Haren SP - Edinson Volquez SP - Ted Lilly SP - Max Scherzer SP - Madison Baumgarner SP - Brandon Webb (DL) RP - Rafael Soriano RP - Neftali Feliz RP - John Axford
Keeper league? If not definitely get rid of strasburg to get a playoff player(s).
It’s not a keeper league. Based on your experience, what kind of pitchers can I get from Strasburg + Boesch or Strasburg + Gardner? Can I get someone like Roy Halladay, or is that too optimistic? Strasburg has been the best starting pitcher aside from Adam Wainwright if you look at fantasy points per start, and I’m sure he’ll be the first starting pitcher drafted in many leagues next year. The problem is that most people will only look at his total season production (not as much since he only came up a couple months ago), and maybe they’re also keen on the fact that he’ll probably get shut down in early September. Maybe I can find an owner that doesn’t know he has an innings limit, but it’s probably not too likely…
I just packaged Strasburg and Boesch for Hanley Ramirez in my league (granted the other owner is a huge Tigers fan). I think everyone is aware of Strasburg’s inning limits, but he can help someone who is on the fringe of making the playoffs actually make the playoffs, whereas I am in first place and will definitely make the playoffs so Strasburg was expendable to me. I would try a similar trade - perhaps try to package Strasburg with Figgins and get one of the top 2b… you would obviously have a great chance of landing Utley who is on the DL, but you would need an interim 2b and I’m not sure what your league’s wavier wire looks like. Utley is a beast though, and would be a huge upgrade over Figgins if you make the playoffs. Cano is obviously the best 2b out there right now, but I doubt his owner would be willing to let him go at this point. If you can’t swing one of those trades, I would go with your strategy and trade an OF and Strasburg for a top tier pitcher. There are plenty of them out there for a trade to be possible, just keep trying until someone bites.
Great suggestions… Right now, I am trying to get Josh Johnson or Roy Halladay for Stephen Strasburg and Brennan Boesch. My angle is that both of these other managers need help in the outfield, and I think Boesch is “sell high.” Also, Stephen Strasburg is amazing and will probably be the first starting pitcher to be drafted next year – if not, then one of the top 3. We’ll see how those things go. I’m a bit reluctant to trade that much to get Robinson Cano. Yes, he’s having a career year but I don’t want to sell the farm to get him at the risk of depleting my pitching. Perhaps it might make sense to settle for a second tier 2B? Like, is it possible that I could trade Boesch/Gardner + Lilly/Scherzer for Dan Uggla? Or, do you think that Uggla will regress to a .250 average and Figgins will eventually get better this season (as opposed to being a lost cause along with the Mariners as a team)?
Do you start all 12 pitchers or are some on the bench? Weekly linup setting or daily?
Generally the two-for-one or three-for-one trades are good because people tend to undervalue the roster spots for picking up free agents. With only starting 10 batters there must be a ton of great hitters on the waiver wire.
You may be depleting your pitching, but keep in mind that you will not have Strasburg anyway for the playoffs, when it really matters. That’s why I think trading Strasburg and an OF who is on your bench for a top tier 2B would be a great move. I’m not sure Figgins will be able to turn it up in that dismal Mariners offense. You’d figure his average should come up if only because he’s so speedy, but keep in mind that those RBI and run numbers from the past were produced on a MUCH betters Angels squad, so don’t be surprised if he gets nowhere near those. Having said all that, if you can pull together a trade for Roy Halladay or Josh Johnson that would obviously be terrific for your pitching staff. However, I think you will start to see that your pitching will be much better than your hitting (because of your recent Volquez pick-up and especially if Webb comes off the DL). At that point, it may be too late to trade pitching for hitting (not sure what your trade deadline is), so make sure you have a plan to add some slugging production to your lineup before the playoffs.
Thanks for the great follow-up tips. gamblingeconomist - this is a daily league, so I try to load up on pitching since I can rotate players. There are some decent hitters on free agency, including Justin Smoak, Johnny Damon, and Juan Pierre – but nobody that I’d really rush to pick up. I’m trying to do a 3-for-1 or a 2-for-1 as you suggested so I can pick up someone decent off the wire. king_kong – you make an interesting point that I might find out eventually that my pitching will be pretty fantastic. Maybe I need to try to get a premiere outfielder by packaging Strasburg + another outfielder (Gardner or Boesch) or starting pitcher (Lilly or Scherzer), depending on who needs help, to upgrade at first base or second base. It sounds like you are more concerned about my hitting than my pitching. Does anyone else here agree with this assessment? It’s true I don’t have that much depth at hitting, but I maintained my roster that way so I could go heavy on the pitching. Lastly, I was thinking about offering Strasburg + Brennan Boesch + Lance Berkman + Ted Lilly for Mark Teixeira + Chris Carpenter + and some scrub player that I’ll drop later. Think that will be an offer he’d consider, especially if the manager is on the cusp of making the playoffs? What if I made that same offer without giving Lilly? Let me know what y’all think… Thanks guys!
Do you have access to stat comparisons versus the players in your league? Yahoo has a page that ranks you in the aggregate in all the categories. I find that being a little better than 6th in each area will win you a lot of weeks. If you’re killing it in a certain category, downgrade and get something that you are weakest in…only wins/losses matter, not by how much. Strasburg has value and I think moving him sonner than later is the best option. But I don’t know if you need more closing or batting…
Good call on looking at the aggregate stats. I was going to bring that up; however, the problem with it is that its backward looking. So for instance, Numi’s team might show that he is behind in Wins and K’s, hypothetically, but I’d say he’s in a pretty good position to win in those categories moving forward with his recent pickup of Volquez, the potential of getting Webb back from the DL, and the possibility of Dan Haren being traded to a contender. Having said that, the aggregate stats will give you an idea of what you need improvement in if you consider all of those factors.
How do you guys find the time for fantasy baseball? I do football and have trouble finding the time to get my lineup set once a week, let alone everyday.
Higg - That’s what I thought before I did it. It seriously takes me a minute on my phone to update…not at all the pain in the ass I thought it would be. I did football for the first time last year and found that Sunday morning updates were really tough because you had to pick guys up and drop others if you wanted a full roster…not quite the case with baseball.
Analyze_This – good suggestion on aggregate stats. For hitters, my strengths are in runs and stolen bases. However, my weakness is in HR and RBI, where I’m buried in the middle of the league. Granted, some of my hitters have caught on fire lately and the aggregate stats *are* backward looking. Nonetheless, over the course of a season, I figure that some of my players will get hot but others might slow down…so I’m willing to accept my aggregate rankings as a good representation of how my team might do for the rest of the season. So, perhaps this is the time when I want to make a real run to upgrade my power at something like 1B (currently have Lance Berkman) or even try to get Dan Uggla for 2B (currently have Chone Figgins). I could get Robinson Cano but the guy probably wants some serious pitching from me (maybe Figgins + Strasburg). Thoughts? king_kong – you make an excellent point on pitching. Since Volquez, Scherzer, and Lilly have come alive in the last few weeks, not to mention that I have Brandon Webb whom I should still get some output from towards the end of the season…I might be able to trade away one of my lower tier starters. To date, I am strongest in saves, K’s and WHIP (top 4 in league), but middle of the pack in wins and ERA. However, I expect my team to become more competitive in these categories, as my team roster has become more heavily weighted towards pitching over time and my pitching staff is getting hot now. Based on this information, it seems like hitting is actually my bigger weakness compared to pitching…so maybe I need to be making a run to upgrade at hitting instead. Anyway, let me know if you have any additional thoughts; thanks again for all the help so far. In case you’re curious, here are what the aggregate stats look like. I’m “Numi.” Team Name R HR RBI SB AVG Absolute Domination 503 135 506 55 0.286 CrimsonPix 484 95 509 67 0.283 pete for the hall 469 110 399 91 0.281 Rock†own™ 467 115 441 56 0.278 Skunker Munker 458 107 472 77 0.277 Springfield Nuclear 471 103 433 89 0.275 Numi 484 103 444 88 0.273 1century1year 446 116 465 42 0.272 SLIDININ2FIRST 493 111 437 76 0.270 JORDAN’S CAREBEARS 420 89 376 60 0.265 Black and Milds 410 96 357 78 0.258 yanks=repeat 457 112 451 81 0.257 Team Name W SV K ERA WHIP Absolute Domination 85 38 915 3.46 1.24 Skunker Munker 63 49 783 3.52 1.22 Rock†own™ 31 89 463 3.54 1.24 CrimsonPix 70 68 848 3.55 1.30 JORDAN’S CAREBEARS 74 71 1008 3.60 1.27 pete for the hall 37 8 407 3.67 1.23 SLIDININ2FIRST 67 70 870 3.69 1.31 Numi 58 85 834 3.73 1.23 yanks=repeat 39 47 583 3.78 1.34 Black and Milds 29 31 417 4.27 1.40 Springfield Nuclear 50 11 707 4.30 1.36 1century1year 45 26 639 4.44 1.36
Some guy offered me Ubaldo Jimenez for my Stephen Strasburg and Madison Bumgarner. Jimenez has been a beast this year, but he’s been roughed up lately. Am also thinking that maybe I need to trade for hitting instead of upgrading at pitching. What do you guys think? Is Stephen Strasburg really more valuable than Ubaldo Jimenez for the rest of the season, or am I just experiencing beauty in the eye of the beholder?
It’s hard to look at those stats, but you seem to be in pretty good shape. One thing to think about is changing the balance of your team and getting it all out of whack. Your hitting seems good to me, probably a little heavy on steals and light on HR…but everyone puts a premium on a good HR guy and less so for speed. I have a hard time buying into Jiminez because of his history of not being this dominant. He seems to be regressing back to the mean and I think you can look elsewhere for Strasburg value. Do you think you could pull a Dan Heran or Verlander for Strasburg and maybe a speedster that isn’t killing it in runs/average (maybe Furcal if he wants more that Strasburg)? You could probably ger Heran for cheaper because he’s had a so-so season thus far, but I personally like him.
Analyze_This, I actually have Haren on my team already and the vibe from my league, from my senses anyway, is that Strasburg is worth more than Verlander. I guess right now I’m looking more towards trying to get someone on the order of Halladay, Lincecum or Josh Johnson for Stephen Strasburg + Brett Gardner or something like that, but I might be too optimistic. I guess I wouldn’t be opposed to swapping Strasburg for Verlander straight up…something to think about.
Numi - I would pounce on a Strasburg trade if that’s the vibe. You are in a good spot right now in the standings and now it’s time to start thinking about post-season…Strasburg won’t be pitching then. Best value would be for you to look at teams on that “bubble” for the playoffs, there are normally a few. One of them would pounce on the opportunity to have Strasburg give them that push to get the final spot. You have really good pitching, maybe you can get someone to upgrade that utility spot… Actually when I look at it more, I think you being in 4th place is a fraud. Those numbers should be producing a top 2 team - you are sitting pretty in most categories. I would say to trade Stras for someone with some pop in his bat. I’ll bet you could get Adam Dunn and a closer for Strasburg. Do you think you’ll need a replacement starter for Strasburg’s absence?
Hi Analyze_This – The guy pulled the Ubaldo Jimenez for Strasburg + Bumgarner deal off the table. It was a fair offer and one I was thinking about accepting, but I hadn’t accepted yet since I was hoping to upgrade at hitting. Then, someone offered me Ryan Howard for Evan Longoria straight up. That deal also got pulled but I think it’s a trade that could benefit my team. Longoria is a five-category player but Howard is just a power hitting machine and I think I need that more than Longoria at this point. I’ll keep you posted on any other interesting developments…