The Unemployment rate “went down” this morning. A sharp increase in the number of people giving up looking for work helped to depress the jobless rate. The number of ‘discouraged job seekers’ rose to 1.1 million in January from 734,000 a year ago. So the government doesn’t have to do anything. Either let the people get jobs or get discouraged and the rate goes down… This is why we should only use the U6 rate. Clinton/Bush/Obama love the fake rate.
Government’s website for the various measures of unemployment: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm
don’t you think when the rates were much lower it was underestimated as well? I mean, there will always be discouraged workers, even when umemployment is low. These numbers need to be looked at in relative terms, so 4% might have been really 6%, and 10% might be really 12%
U-6 also went down though. I don’t get it.
That’s why I said it’s a Clinton/Bush/Obama scam from Clinton himself. The media should only use the U6 #. That’s the # that was used from 1920s to 1990s ------------------------------------------------ There was a slight job gain but in temp job and retail xmas jobs. I do not dispute that since the data will correct as those workers get let go. But the drop was very exaggerated. According to the newly released data, jobs were gained in temporary help services, retail and the health care industry. The federal government provided 33,000 jobs. This includes 9,000 temporary positions for census workers.
The unemployment number was down because a large number of discouraged workers left the unemployment pool. The silver lining is that if and when the economy recovers, the unemployment number will actually go up due to the millions of discouraged workers coming back to hunting jobs.
phBOOM Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > The unemployment number was down because a large > number of discouraged workers left the > unemployment pool. The silver lining is that if > and when the economy recovers, the unemployment > number will actually go up due to the millions of > discouraged workers coming back to hunting jobs. +10
ohw do u measure discouraged job seeker leaving the pool?
notenoughtheta Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > U-6 also went down though. I don’t get it. The raw U-6 number went up MoM from 17.1 to 18.0. Seasonally adjusted U-6 went down (17.3 to 16.5).
I totally think the gov’t minipulates these numbers. …Then a month or two down the line they state a correction for the actual number.
New word: minipulate, verb – to lower an adversely high number to benefit one’s agenda
phBOOM Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > The unemployment number was down because a large > number of discouraged workers left the > unemployment pool. The silver lining is that if > and when the economy recovers, the unemployment > number will actually go up due to the millions of > discouraged workers coming back to hunting jobs. Ah another of the " I would rather see USA go down the drain than see Obama be successful" camp.
Whatever your interpretation, even more of a reason for Congress to do SOMETHING. Its easy to sit by and watch a car wreck and comment on the wounded people lying in the street, but the right thing to do would be to try to help, instead of saying that they were driving too fast or offer to cut their taxes.
PtrainerNY Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > That’s why I said it’s a Clinton/Bush/Obama scam > from Clinton himself. > > The media should only use the U6 #. That’s the # > that was used from 1920s to 1990s > ------------------------------------------------ > There was a slight job gain but in temp job and > retail xmas jobs. I do not dispute that since the > data will correct as those workers get let go. But > the drop was very exaggerated. > > > According to the newly released data, jobs were > gained in temporary help services, retail and the > health care industry. The federal government > provided 33,000 jobs. This includes 9,000 > temporary positions for census workers. Proof that that was the number used during those periods?
BizBanker Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Whatever your interpretation, even more of a > reason for Congress to do SOMETHING. Its easy to > sit by and watch a car wreck and comment on the > wounded people lying in the street, but the right > thing to do would be to try to help, instead of > saying that they were driving too fast or offer to > cut their taxes. In case people haven’t noticed, the entire Western hemisphere is in economic turmoil right now. Greece is bankrupt, Spain and Portugal are next in line etc. Only BRIC countries especially China and India are steaming ahead with lots of job creation.
marcus phoenix Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > BizBanker Wrote: > -------------------------------------------------- > ----- > > Whatever your interpretation, even more of a > > reason for Congress to do SOMETHING. Its easy > to > > sit by and watch a car wreck and comment on the > > wounded people lying in the street, but the > right > > thing to do would be to try to help, instead of > > saying that they were driving too fast or offer > to > > cut their taxes. > > > In case people haven’t noticed, the entire Western > hemisphere is in economic turmoil right now. > Greece is bankrupt, Spain and Portugal are next in > line etc. Only BRIC countries especially China and > India are steaming ahead with lots of job > creation. Think about that for a second. China and India do one thing. They are the world’s factories. If the world’s wealth and demand for goods is down, how can they be doing so well? The answer? They aren’t. China especially. I’m not the biggest Mish fan, but you should probably think about China a bit more. http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/02/nonperforming-loans-in-china-rise-to.html
> > Think about that for a second. > > China and India do one thing. They are the > world’s factories. If the world’s wealth and > demand for goods is down, how can they be doing so > well? > > The answer? Internal demand from a booming middle class…especially in India.
marcus phoenix Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > > > > Think about that for a second. > > > > China and India do one thing. They are the > > world’s factories. If the world’s wealth and > > demand for goods is down, how can they be doing > so > > well? > > > > The answer? > > Internal demand from a booming middle > class…especially in India. Do you have some numbers to back that up?
spierce Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > marcus phoenix Wrote: > -------------------------------------------------- > ----- > > > > > > Think about that for a second. > > > > > > China and India do one thing. They are the > > > world’s factories. If the world’s wealth and > > > demand for goods is down, how can they be > doing > > so > > > well? > > > > > > The answer? > > > > Internal demand from a booming middle > > class…especially in India. > > > Do you have some numbers to back that up? India Inc’s hiring activity has increased considerably since September last year and the current recruitment level is one of the highest globally, says a survey by international recruitment firm Antal. The quarterly global survey asked more than 6,000 firms in 30 countries that whether they were hiring at managerial and professional level and planned to do so in the coming quarter as well. As much as 71 per cent of Indian companies surveyed said they were currently hiring compared to around half in September, the survey revealed. Nigeria (79 per cent) is the only country to have a higher rate of hiring than India’s [Images]. “Confidence is back at its peak in the Indian job markets, its happy days again for job seekers,” Antal International managing partner Joseph Devasia said. Further, the survey stated that Indian firms plan on increasing their hiring activity even more, with 78 per cent expecting to hire managerial staff over the next three months. “Combined with a very low rate of letting people go (16 per cent and set to drop by a further three per cent) the results indicate a strong employment market which is improving all the time,” the Antal report noted about India. China and Pakistan also have high rates of hiring at 71 per cent and 70 per cent, respectively. Although China predicts an increase in recruitment activity, Pakistan forecasts a drop of 25 per cent. “Manufacturing & auto sectors along with the traditional IT, FMCG, pharma companies have ramped up hiring, against what we witnessed in our previous survey. Increased hiring indicates that the need for exceptional talent is now ever more,” Devasia added. Antal said that globally although a few countries are still seeing a decline in the employment market, the global picture has definitely improved once again. “As a result we are already seeing the first clear signs of organisations thinking in terms of the ‘war for talent’ once more with more robust businesses making early moves to snap up the best people in their markets before general recovery becomes too apparent,” Antal CEO Tony Goodwin said. A Long-Term Prospect Most importantly, the quickly growing middle class in India will continue to support strong internal growth for the long-term future of India. The middle class currently numbers about 50 million people, but is expected to grow to 41 percent of the population, or 583 million people, by 2025. The McKinsey Global Institute expects that these households will see their income increase 11 fold, and total 58 percent of Indian income. The middle class currently spends the majority of its income on necessities such as clothing and food, which has led to strong growth in consumer goods. In the upcoming decades, this growth will shift more towards discretionary spending, as the emerging middle class sees a large increase in available income. Companies in India across all sectors are catering towards these currently low-income but relatively expanding, consumers. The fast growing middle class population will continue to support internal growth within India, and the growing wealth of this young population will lead to a vast expansion in the private sector, leaving ample opportunities for investors.
awesome! I love contributing.