The market that is… Today: Large revision down on Chinese LEI. Huge consumer confidence miss to 52.9 Canadian specific data point -> Alberta restaurant sales fell by 2.6% m-o-m, any Alberta data is often a proxy for Cdn and US economic health Before Today: GDP fell short of 3% at 2.7% Durable goods orders less than expected for May job less claims still well over 400,000; i’ve heard 400,000 is our comfort zone new home sales stink; came in at 300k vs. 400k expected for May existing home sales are pretty stinky too, perpetually missing consensus retail sales stunk for may with all the above, do you think we’re well on our way to a double-dip, or is there some middle ground between the uber-bullish economist estimates and the uber-bearish valuation of the market (ex-tech and Cdn banks, so energy and materials essentially).
“any Alberta data is often a proxy for Cdn and US economic health” extrapolation FAIL.
2012 - End of this world
Flat–Europe like economy. We just can’t see the forrest through the trees. We all want to hear one extreme or the other but the truth is between the noise.
ASSet_MANagement Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > We just can’t see the > forrest through the trees. We all want to hear one > extreme or the other but the truth is between the > noise. New job? Sounds like you’re in the inspirational calendar business now…
NakedPuts Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > “any Alberta data is often a proxy for Cdn and US > economic health” > > extrapolation FAIL. how is this a fail when the entire Alberta economy is aimed at providing the Canadian and U.S. non-energy sectors with energy? Alberta represents 1.15% of the population of the U.S. and provides it with 14.4% of its natural gas and 5.8% of its oil and is 10.5% of the population of Canada and provides it with 68% of its oil and 80% of its natural gas. If any area represents the engine of the truck we call North America, I’d say it’d have to be Alberta. If Albertans are confident, the world is confident, if not, watch out.
Greasy Albertans
Alberta has a population the size of Oklahoma and a GDP the size of Maryland. Based on the stats you provided, it would seem the Alberta economy is a lagging indicator for the O&G sector, rather than providing any kind of leading indicator. You also indicate Alberta has a tremendously small population, so why do I really care what their m/m restaurant comps are? I can look at a chart and see oil is down in the last few months, I don’t need to wait for Alberta to tell them that.
So when do we invade Alberta?
So many industry leaders were saying that the “bull run” we’ve experienced in the stock market, over the last year, was completely without warrant. I think we’re now just getting the correction it deserves. Many experienced traders at large exchanges were quoted as saying they’ve never seen the stock market move up so much on such little volume.
Correction there will be but I sincerely doubt we will see even Dow dip below 9000.
Reggie Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > So many industry leaders were saying that the > “bull run” we’ve experienced in the stock market, > over the last year, was completely without > warrant. I think we’re now just getting the > correction it deserves. Many experienced traders > at large exchanges were quoted as saying they’ve > never seen the stock market move up so much on > such little volume. So, much more noise around the trend. That can be expected as more players enter the market place.
“the market goes up, the market goes down but in the long run - it goes up.”
pgh.ndt Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > ASSet_MANagement Wrote: > -------------------------------------------------- > ----- > > We just can’t see the > > forrest through the trees. We all want to hear > one > > extreme or the other but the truth is between > the > > noise. > > > New job? Sounds like you’re in the inspirational > calendar business now… When clients call yelling and worried about their $$ it’s more about managing expectations than managing risk.
marcus phoenix Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > So when do we invade Alberta? http://people.ucsc.edu/~javshalo/images/cat.jpg
NakedPuts Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Alberta has a population the size of Oklahoma and > a GDP the size of Maryland. Based on the stats > you provided, it would seem the Alberta economy is > a lagging indicator for the O&G sector, rather > than providing any kind of leading indicator. You > also indicate Alberta has a tremendously small > population, so why do I really care what their m/m > restaurant comps are? I can look at a chart and > see oil is down in the last few months, I don’t > need to wait for Alberta to tell them that. so you’re trying to tell me that looking for a proxy should include choosing the largest state/province with the largest population and the greatest GDP? if we did that, we might as well just look for the stats of North America as a whole. are you trying to tell me that the process of extrapolation is flawed? also, are you trying to tell me that Albertan’s wages are variable and based on energy prices on a month-to-month basis? oil prices go down, so Albertans lose pay? they’re spending less money on restaurants because every employed individual in Alberta lost 2.2% in salary? it comes down to confidence. if the province which has the highest GDP per capita behind Lichtenstein, Luxembourg, Norway and Qatar, is unconfident, I would be afraid for the not-have-so-muches. something has to be wrong if this 2.2% drop, turns to 10% in the next couple of months, considering the province has more contiguous oil resources than the rest of the world combined. any drop in confidence is notable in the province who’s GDP will easily be 2x that of any other area in the world within the next 100 years.
MattLikesAnalysis Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > so you’re trying to tell me that looking for a > proxy should include choosing the largest > state/province with the largest population and the > greatest GDP? if we did that, we might as well > just look for the stats of North America as a > whole. are you trying to tell me that the process > of extrapolation is flawed? Of course not. stop putting words in my mouth, Captain Strawman. > also, are you trying to tell me that Albertan’s > wages are variable and based on energy prices on a > month-to-month basis? oil prices go down, so > Albertans lose pay? they’re spending less money on > restaurants because every employed individual in > Alberta lost 2.2% in salary? I’m saying none of these things. Broadly, though, the price of oil will greatly affect the amount of money flowing into Alberta. > it comes down to confidence. if the province which > has the highest GDP per capita behind > Lichtenstein, Luxembourg, Norway and Qatar, is > unconfident, I would be afraid for the > not-have-so-muches. something has to be wrong if > this 2.2% drop, turns to 10% in the next couple of > months, considering the province has more > contiguous oil resources than the rest of the > world combined. I know where you’re getting this claim, but it’s dubious at best. any drop in confidence is notable > in the province who’s GDP will easily be 2x that > of any other area in the world within the next 100 > years. You should extrapolate based upon things which are representative of the whole, not those on the fringes. Would you use the economies of Qatar or Norway as representative of other regions? I don’t judge all Christian republicans based upon Jerry Falwell, likewise for Al Sharpton. You keeping reiterating how hyper-concentrated their economy is on oil, so I’m puzzled as to why you think it’s so easy to ignore the health care, technology and manufacturing sectors of the North America economy. I’m generally going to reject any extrapolation of any geographic region because of the reasons I’ve outlined. I’d look to things that are involved with every part of the economy, companies like FedEx and 3Mm instead.
if energy prices are a leading indicator, and by your analysis Albertans confidence should be affected by changes in energy prices, wouldn’t changes in Albertans confidence predict changes in confidence in other regions? this is why you exclude areas with health care and technology and manufacturing as they allow confidence to remain elevated even while the economy has already begun to crash. and yes i would use similar oil based economies to predict other areas of the world, including Qatar as a predictor for other more diversified oil ME states, but excluding Norway as it is much more diversified.
In that case, you may like analysis, but it’s quite poor.