Any of you have your entire portfolio made up of either commodity equities and/or Chinese equities?
Why would you? Presumably if you’re on a CFA exam-related forum, you would know something about diversification. A concentrated portfolio is one thing, an entire portfolio of commodity equities and/or Chinese equities is pretty dense.
If you’re in China you might have only Chinese equities. Most US people probably have all or mostly US equities…
or worse, mostly stock of the company they work for.
My 401(k): 25% Groupon (gonna be the next facebook!) 20% China (you can buy stock in the country now, talk to your broker and ask if China is right for you) 15% RenRen (‘Facebook’ in China! Whooooo!) 10% Facebook (‘Facebook’ in America! Also whooooooo!) 10% Commodities (mostly gold, and also some gold) 10% Minority stake I bought of MySpace back in '05 (mainly held for loss aversion reasons) 5% Pandora (Got 'em in the secondary market day of the IPO! killing it!) 5% More of Groupon (BUY ON DIPS GENTS) Year to date performance is -349% for the quoted securities, but luckily my facebook, myspace, and groupon stakes are not quoted. As such, I have used judgement and observance of what similar securities are traded at in the marketplace and have estimated that those positions have appreciated 890,234% since purchase. All in all, I’m having an excellent year.
supersadface Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > My 401(k): > > 25% Groupon (gonna be the next facebook!) > 20% China (you can buy stock in the country now, > talk to your broker and ask if China is right for > you) > 15% RenRen (‘Facebook’ in China! Whooooo!) > 10% Facebook (‘Facebook’ in America! Also > whooooooo!) > 10% Commodities (mostly gold, and also some gold) > 10% Minority stake I bought of MySpace back in '05 > (mainly held for loss aversion reasons) > 5% Pandora (Got 'em in the secondary market day of > the IPO! killing it!) > 5% More of Groupon (BUY ON DIPS GENTS) > > Year to date performance is -349% for the quoted > securities, but luckily my facebook, myspace, and > groupon stakes are not quoted. As such, I have > used judgement and observance of what similar > securities are traded at in the marketplace and > have estimated that those positions have > appreciated 890,234% since purchase. > > All in all, I’m having an excellent year. I might suggest you consider adding China Unicom, and Linkedln, and Netflix (this has been recommended by Cramer!) to your portfolio? From my calculations, the risk inherent in these securities should add extra utility to your portfolio beyond the expected return.
99 cannon sloop Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > supersadface Wrote: > -------------------------------------------------- > ----- > > My 401(k): > > > > 25% Groupon (gonna be the next facebook!) > > 20% China (you can buy stock in the country > now, > > talk to your broker and ask if China is right > for > > you) > > 15% RenRen (‘Facebook’ in China! Whooooo!) > > 10% Facebook (‘Facebook’ in America! Also > > whooooooo!) > > 10% Commodities (mostly gold, and also some > gold) > > 10% Minority stake I bought of MySpace back in > '05 > > (mainly held for loss aversion reasons) > > 5% Pandora (Got 'em in the secondary market day > of > > the IPO! killing it!) > > 5% More of Groupon (BUY ON DIPS GENTS) > > > > Year to date performance is -349% for the > quoted > > securities, but luckily my facebook, myspace, > and > > groupon stakes are not quoted. As such, I have > > used judgement and observance of what similar > > securities are traded at in the marketplace and > > have estimated that those positions have > > appreciated 890,234% since purchase. > > > > All in all, I’m having an excellent year. > > I might suggest you consider adding China Unicom, > and Linkedln, and Netflix (this has been > recommended by Cramer!) to your portfolio? From my > calculations, the risk inherent in these > securities should add extra utility to your > portfolio beyond the expected return. Linked In and Netflix? You have to be kidding me.
newsuper Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Why would you? Presumably if you’re on a CFA > exam-related forum, you would know something about > diversification. > > A concentrated portfolio is one thing, an entire > portfolio of commodity equities and/or Chinese > equities is pretty dense. What if you think the dollar will eventually be worthless? It makes sense to have strong, very strong exposure to overseas markets like China.
Yes, but not *just* China. Suppose food prices rise further, and there is rebellion in the countryside. The party sends troops to crush the rebellion, but it is widespread. Then students in the cities push for more representation, then there is extreme instability in China. Do you really want ALL your eggs in that basket? And how much transparency do you really get with China? Do you really know what you’re buying? Do you really trust official statistics on growth rates, etc.? Do you trust companies not to manipulate their balance sheets with abandon? The only reason to be exposed *only* to China is if you are forced to be only in China, either because of legal requirements, or because you are a fund that has China-only as your investment policy (which will usually be so you can get to manage the “China portion” of someone else’s diversified portfolio). Even wealthy Chinese want to diversify beyond China to the extent that they can. And the dollar is unlikely to become “worthless.” It will lose purchasing power over time, unless things change markedly, but it would take an awful lot to make it truly “worthless.”
Well what will happen to the dollar is no longer the reserve currency? What will happen when China decides to start unloading all their US debt? It’s inevitable that this will happen. I don’t know when but it will certainly. Won’t the dollar get destroyed?
You mean like the pound was in the 1950s? Seems that the pound is still a major currency and worth something, even if it’s not as much as it used to be. And that’s with an economy that is perhaps 1/8 the size of the US’s. The Deutschemark too, before it turned into the Euro, and that rose from a country that was completely destroyed in the war, becoming a major currency, even a reserve currency, and this during a period while the US was in ascendance.