What do you guys think? He says letting Lehman go down was a big mistake. If Lehman didn’t go down, the dow would have been 10k now. He also said that one of the guys responsible for Lehman not getting a deal, is in line to become US Treasury Secretary.
I think that is a very lame prediction. The range is massive, and there is no time limit. The bottom line is that the Dow will hit either 6,000 or 10,000 in due time regardless of the automakers.
also said Bear Stearns was a good buy.
I don’t disagree. They have to be given a deal.
if we see a pre-pack bankruptcy, it would not be surprising to see the Dow rally. the actual impact of GM going under would only be something like 25 pts. The knock-on effect could be worse if we were to see a liquidation or something similar. Cramer remains a long-only guy in a short-only market. How can he possibly have anything to say of merit?
joekinde Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > if we see a pre-pack bankruptcy, it would not be > surprising to see the Dow rally. the actual > impact of GM going under would only be something > like 25 pts. The knock-on effect could be worse > if we were to see a liquidation or something > similar. > > Cramer remains a long-only guy in a short-only > market. How can he possibly have anything to say > of merit? that makes no sense. you aren’t taking into account the 1MM plus other jobs and dozens of other companies that tank if that happens. 25 points??? please.
25 pts? In this market? what?
Cramer’s crystal ball has proved less than accurate…this is more of a warning to policy makers than it is conjecture on where the market is going.
Why are Cramer’s thoughts even discussed anymore?
sorry - let me clarify. if GM goes from 3 to 0, the impact on the dow would be ~25 pts. My math could be off, but that’s what I get when I plug the value through the Dow multiplier. Do you calculate it differently? you indicated a liquidation of the company (which is a low probability event), but the consequential impacts on the economy would be greater, as I had said.
the impact on the dow is right, but its the ripple effect that could have the big impact. I am not sold on this 2.5M jobs crap or even a 6000 dow, but a 25pt move is the least of the impact for sure.
So if the govt saves GM by causing massive inflation won’t Dow 9000 (w/ inflation) = Dow 6000 (w/o it) It’s like saying u got a 10% raise with 8 % inflation instead…
Inflation? We are in an deflationary period. Might as well sell more Treasury given the low rate while the getting is good.
When you print money, deflation can only last so long
The worst thing about the financial crisis? All the publicity Cramer gets.
joemontana Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > The worst thing about the financial crisis? All > the publicity Cramer gets. Hahaha, great observation!
sublimity Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=72cHfOKoA1c&eurl too large to let fail?
PtrainerNY Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > When you print money, deflation can only last so > long Presumably, the able people at the Fed would stop desperately trying to increase the money supply when it became clear that the money supply is just not the problem. At least we can hope.
Yeah but technically, adjusting the money supply is SUPPOSED to be the Fed’s only purpose… to smooth out economic ups and downs into a less volatile economy with little excesses of anything. The problem is saving everyone, because the saving everyone forces them to print more money, should they have printed more money to ‘save’ everyone, things could and will be different in the future… though i’m not saying they’d be any better right now.