So my building office manager told me last night that she had predicted 6 months ago that Barry will pick Hillary as his SOS. Nailed that one. So now her new prediction and commentary are as follows: The economic crisis is hype. For 100 days starting January 20, the market will fluctuate up and down, but after that it will shoot up like crazy again. We are all ok. I gotta agree with the ‘hype’ part of it. every one I know is doing great.
I don’t agree with the hype part. The data is out there and it is grim - worldwide. I do agree that the market can really rally soon, however.
yeah, but the impact of $3 trillion USD is uncomprehendable and the fact that recipients are expecting another $5 trillion USD, I would say that this money has not allowed us to see the real underlying problems. To say we’re okay at the expense of $8 trillion (I know much of this is short-term capital, so maybe $2 trillion lost) is not encouraging. Real job cuts haven’t even started yet, they’ve just been talking and planning cuts. It will get to the point where cuts are made without much thought and the cash injections into the economy won’t prevent that, just delay it. though a rally is possible, i don’t think its sustainable. we’ll be here or lower at year end 2010.
So she goes from being right on a 1-in-4-odds prediction, to now predicting a 1-in-2 shot (i.e. market will either go up, or go down)? Wonder why she’s not already a CNBC commentator…
I would disagree with her on that one. Historically after a bubble burst (think back to tech and Asian crisis) You usually have a period of disinterest were the markets stay relatively flat obviously we are not there yet. I think once the apathy stage sets in it will be the time to step back into the markets (even if you’ve given up some upside).