Historically, it seems like there is always some “AHA!” innovation that pulls us out of these economic slumps. The last time we thought we had squeezed every ounce of efficiency and money out of the business world, computers came along and made us more productive by an order of magnitude. There are several examples before this too (railroads, postal service, electronic communication, automobiles, etc). So what is the next big Eureka that fires the economy and optimism back up? Here is my .02 : Workplace studies have estimate that 40% of developed world jobs could be done from anywhere with a phone line and broadband connection. Imagine the time , gasoline, and government infrastructure savings if all those commuters just vanished. I’m sure there are thousands of benefits I haven’t thought of yet, and its true that some things just aren’t as good remotely (4+ person meetings). Still If people commuted less, there is massive time, money, energy savings potential. What’s your idea for the “should have been obvious” factor that turns this depression around in 2011 or so?
The 2011 Chevrolet Camaro
Didn’t CNN use halograms during the election? It was totally ridiculus and looked stupid, but you have to think that this technology will come into play with meetings in the future.
Yes - meetings with the Emperor or Princess Leia. That was the stupidest stunt I’ve ever seen (fits perfectly on CNN). I’d challenge anyone to recall anything that was actually said during those “interviews” - I know I can’t.
TJR Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Didn’t CNN use halograms during the election? It > was totally ridiculus and looked stupid, but you > have to think that this technology will come into > play with meetings in the future. What a joke. I love when they were like: “This technology is amazing. I actually cannot see you here but to our audience it must look as if you are standing right in the room with me.”
Dwight Wrote: . > > I love when they were like: “This technology is > amazing. I actually cannot see you here but to > our audience it must look as if you are standing > right in the room with me.” To me, it looked like I was watching TV. CNN and FN are the reasons I can only watch MSNBC and CSpan
In my opinion, next breakthrough will be in the energy sector… Luckily, some technically and economically viable alternatives to oil will soon flood the market so that you can still commute as much as you do now without worrying about the cost savings / energy savings. The healthcare sector might also be the next big wow, technologically speaking. Stem cells research should potentially allow for a few amazing feats in a few years. As for the electronic industry, the marginal benefit from computers has started to decrease for a while now, so I’d be surprised if there were any recession breaker potential there. How about Nationalized health care? That would certainly get you guys out of a recession, although it is still a very much debated issue… J.
The last breakthrough wasn’t computers. It was securitization. 
Ahahaha, Yeah, not sure about that… Why don’t we try to massively use it once again to see if that would get us out of this recession… J.
My opinion on these things: Decentralized workplace - Only works if there is some compelling reason not to show up at work. Like frequent terrorist attacks or plagues. If so, it’s a change but the overall benefit will be greatly reduced by whatever reason is causing concentrations of people to represent risk. Online education hasn’t caught on, but going hundreds of miles to attend math lectures is really dumb. Energy sector - There is just not some great source of energy out there we haven’t discovered. An energy breakthrough would need to be a serious technological breakthrough in fusion power or something and that seems unlikely. Instead of trying for more energy, we need to figure out how to stop consuming it at such grotesque rates. Healthcare - Hmm… How much more money are we going to spend on healthcare? Electronics - I like the convergence story. I’ve got so many stupid devices - a GPS, a cell phone, a laptop, a TV remote, some sex toys, a Taser, etc. that should all be just one universal device. It would, of course, be important to error-proof such a device. Chevy Camaro - C’mon. They stopped making the Camaros because nobody was buying them. I like to read about them in Car and Driver, but I’m not buying. If we go into a serious depression, I think the next growth industry is war. The root cause of lots of our problems is that we have lots of highly capable people sitting around doing nothing especially productive. It takes only a small number of people to create all the food, shelter, clothing that we need so we create stupid industries (e.g., lots of finance, lots of lawyers, lots of banking, fashion that provides $500 shoes that cost $10 to make, cars with 400 hp engines, etc…). We are gutting lots of that now so we will have lots of idle, pi$$ed-off people. There are lots of times in history that idle, pi$$ed-off capable people cause wars to happen. So to invest in war, I dunno, 7.62x39mm is the world’s favorite war bullet…
J. Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Ahahaha, > Yeah, not sure about that… > > Why don’t we try to massively use it once again to > see if that would get us out of this recession… > > J. I read in the paper this morning that Cantor Fitzgerald is selling protection on movie returns i.e. I’ll buy a contract for $50 and if the movie on that contract sells $60 million in the first four months I get to sell my contract for $60. These guys will never learn.
If you want to sell protection, to you get to watch the movie first?
“Electronics - I like the convergence story. I’ve got so many stupid devices - a GPS, a cell phone, a laptop, a TV remote, some sex toys, a Taser, etc. that should all be just one universal device. It would, of course, be important to error-proof such a device.” Ahahaha sign me up for the universal Sex toys / Taser. I would love to read the disclaimer on this device… J.
JoeyDVivre Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > If you want to sell protection, to you get to > watch the movie first? Only the producers and the studio of course.
Energy “efficiency” is a widely misunderstood concept. We continue to invent and deploy more and more technologies which are, on an absolute basis, energy hogs. Do you know how much power it takes to run ISRG’s Da Vinci machine? It’d blow your mind. It uses some crazy % of its power just to cool itself from all the heat generated by its other power consuming activities. But look at what it does! Can anyone argue that energy is “wasted”? So using less power, on an absolute basis, is nearly impossible. That doesn’t mean we’re screwed by any stretch of the imagination, but that’s a subject for another post.
I do think a reduction in travel will have a major impact on energy usage. Why go to work when you can contact people ‘face-to-face’ much quicker without having to stand up, walk anywhere. Think of the amount on infrastructure spending saved should there not be traffic jams everyday, but I understand the extra spending on tech infrastructure necessary to create this type of economy. It will happen. As for energy efficiency. I was watching Dragon’s Den this week and this guy came on claiming he can defy the laws of physics and that he basically has a perpetually growing energy machine. Unbelievable yes, but one of the dragons took him on, so a Canadian has possibly defied the laws of physics and created the solution to all the world’s problems. Hopefully. Maybe Americans will finally give Canada some recognition after 100 years of softwood lumber and O&G trade when we completely solve their energy problems once and for all. oh and inventing the telephone and penicilin… kinda significant accomplishments.
^^ We won’t judge before the story plays out on this one, but remember this is the land who thought they’d solved all the world’s fashion needs with the Canadian Tuxedo
I stand by that claim regarding the Canadian Tuxedo.