Which Foreign Currency will Outperform in the next 20 years?

If you had to put all your worth and salary into one currency going forward for the next 20 years, which would you go with??

“If you had to put all your worth … into one currency going forward for the next 20 years” For some people I would say this is a short position.

The Amero, according to this guy: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rMu08LqBsJY&feature=related

^^ lol, i was totally going to say the Amero too

IronMan Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > If you had to put all your worth and salary into > one currency going forward for the next 20 years, > which would you go with?? Well, putting all of your worth and salary into one thing/currency is just a bad idea in general, but if someone forced me to do it, here are some of the options I’d consider: 1) Gold - not really a currency actually, but highly convertible. Gold does not generate income or profits the way stocks or bonds do, but then, neither do currencies (on average). However, it does increase in value when inflation is wild and when instability is high, and I see that happening a lot over the next 20 years. 2) Chinese Yuan (not my second choice, but talking about it 2nd gives context to other choices). The value of a currency is basically about the desirability of access to the goods, services, and assets of its economy. That means you want to have an economy that is growing, producing, and is profitable. For the long term, that still looks like China. China has a kind of creeping peg regime, but at some point over the next 20 years, it will presumably let the yuan rise, and perhaps even float. However, China is an authoritarian regime and this adds specific risks. Internal problems may erupt into chaos or civil war at some point in the next 20 years, and there is also the danger that political leaders will not let you repatriate profits/assets (currently they do, but they could change their minds in the next 20 years) 3) Brazilian Real. The logic is similar to the Yuan, but Brazil is a democratic regime which removes some of the civil war fears, though there can still be chaos. The Brazilian economy is also quite diversified in terms of economic sectors and trade partners. This is likely to improve risk adjusted performance. 4) US Dollar. The US economy is still the biggest economy in the world, democratically governed, has high rule of law, high productivity due to technology. We will have trouble here for the next 10 years or so, I suspect (though not necessarily like the 1930s), but the dollar is still very liquid and desirable, even if it will not be as much so in 10 or 20 years. 5) Canadian Dollar. This is a way to separate oneself from specific US policy problems and bank on the natural resources base of Canada, while having democratic and rule-of-law advantages. However, the US is Canada’s biggest trade partner, so it’s only partial protection. 6) Australian Dollar. I don’t know a lot about the AUD, but I have a sense that it is relatively decoupled, a natural resource based economy with a lot of good human capital, good rule of law, etc… I’d definitely investigate. So those are the ones I would consider. The Euro is too hard to govern. The Yen doesn’t look like it’s making a comeback. The Ruble is highly concentrated risk. The Rupee needs to deal with corruption issues and infrastructure before it can truly strengthen long-term. This was fun…

How about the Pound?

f gold. I’d much rather get paid in Titanium, or Lithium or iodine or something useful

Imagine if you were paid in titanium (some useful alloy) at $10/lb for the next 20 years. You would have lots of pretty useless metal hanging around.

JoeyDVivre Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Imagine if you were paid in titanium (some useful > alloy) at $10/lb for the next 20 years. You would > have lots of pretty useless metal hanging around. You may mock my titanium house now, but when true global warming comes, your wood and brick houses shall melt while my house remains strong, lustrous, corrosion resistant, and ductile. muhahahaha.

I’d rather have a heap of metal than a stack of worthless paper you can’t beat people with paper…

You kind of can…it’s called a bat.

Id go for the Singapore dollar. Good country, good fundamentals, great geographical position to benefit from any increase in trading flows. Aussie should do well as long as China does. BRL will do great too eventually. Maybe the Norwegan Krone? USD or sterling I wouldnt touch. But having said that, I am a UK citizen and live in the US so those are the only 2 bank accounts I have!!

MattLikesAnalysis Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > JoeyDVivre Wrote: > -------------------------------------------------- > ----- > > Imagine if you were paid in titanium (some > useful > > alloy) at $10/lb for the next 20 years. You > would > > have lots of pretty useless metal hanging > around. > > > You may mock my titanium house now, but when true > global warming comes, your wood and brick houses > shall melt while my house remains strong, > lustrous, corrosion resistant, and ductile. > muhahahaha. And at the bottom of the ocean as sea levels rise. Wood at least floats! :wink:

I’m thinking of moving all of my money into baseball cards. No matter what global currencies do, there will always be a demand for pieces of cardboard hailing Nolan Ryan’s 5,000 strikeouts.

bchadwick Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > MattLikesAnalysis Wrote: > -------------------------------------------------- > ----- > > JoeyDVivre Wrote: > > > -------------------------------------------------- > > > ----- > > > Imagine if you were paid in titanium (some > > useful > > > alloy) at $10/lb for the next 20 years. You > > would > > > have lots of pretty useless metal hanging > > around. > > > > > > You may mock my titanium house now, but when > true > > global warming comes, your wood and brick > houses > > shall melt while my house remains strong, > > lustrous, corrosion resistant, and ductile. > > muhahahaha. > > And at the bottom of the ocean as sea levels rise. > Wood at least floats! > > :wink: Waterworld much?

mwvt9 Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > You kind of can…it’s called a bat. paper mache?

Bankin’ Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > I’m thinking of moving all of my money into > baseball cards. No matter what global currencies > do, there will always be a demand for pieces of > cardboard hailing Nolan Ryan’s 5,000 strikeouts. On a sidenote I actually have a decent collection of vintage baseball cards… ya know… cause it helps me get laid its probably in the $8-$15k range and it has help up much better than any of the mkts. Anything post 1980 is basically worthless though Anything pre 1950 has help up extremely well

One of the emerging markets currencies. Vietnam, Brazil, Russia, Ukraine, Poland, Africa (maybe even Zimbabwe), China, India, Iraq, Lebanon

Icelandic Kronor. in all seriousness. I think they’ll pioneer some tech industry cuz they know they have to or else this problem will happen again.

Whatever they call the currency in Zimbabwe. I want as many of those $500 million notes (or whatever they are up to now) as i can get.