here is what i got $200 on 1st completed pass to be by Steelers $150 on Steelers to score first touchdown $100 on Cardinals to win the game $150 on Cardinals to kick the first Field Goal. (3 pt)
There is a good chance whoever gets the ball first is going to score. If the cards win the toss there is a high probability that you are out $350 off the back. Also, what is the Cards winning percentage if they score the first TD vs. not scoring first? I think I saw that if they score first they are much more likely to win which would disprove your third bet as well. I would advise your fund to introduce some better hedges sir but I do approve of your funds general strategy. Whatever happens, best of luck and everyone enjoy the game tomorrow!
lol! yes i realize this. it all boils down to my hard belief that the Steelers are goin to win the toss up. lets see what happens!
you basically bet 200 on the coin flip. except that if the steelers win the flip, they pass so infrequently that they can easily do a run, run, incomplete pass, punt; so you’re not guaranteed to win that bet even if the steelers win the flip. on the other hand, if the cards win the flip, they’ll come out throwing the ball all over the place. so i’d say that your odds on the first bet are 40/60 against you. the second bet is anyone’s guess. i’d say it’s pretty fair at 50/50. the third bet is working against you. the cards are the underdog going in, and if you’re only getting even money, then you could have done better. maybe 45/55 against you. for the fourth, though, i’d say that the steelers are a bit more likely to have a drive stall in field goal range. the cards tend to be more explosive, and when they get on a role good enough to get down the field in the first place, they should be able to get it in, if they don’t turn it over. i’d put the odds at 35/65 against you. who sold you on those bets? i think you could have done a lot better. a better hedge might have been something like the cards would make the first good kick (PAT or field goal) rather than just field goal, to offset your long PIT TD position.
I don’t think you guys understand the Steeler defense. I doubt that either team will march down the field on their first possession. The mixture of the atmosphere, adrenaline and defense will make it hard.
^ i’m with you on this one mwvt. all NFC playoffs, larry fitz has been able to manhandle defenses. as good as he is (and he’s good), he is in for a long, long, day tomorrow. they’ll neurtralize him, and trust me, arizona’s run D isn’t scaring Pitt a bit. i have no idea on little sidebets like these, but if i had to predict the outcome of this game, i’ll take pitt and give up quite a few points. i think your team will prevail easily my friend. it’s been a fun ride for AZ, but that fun stops tomorrow. the steelers are not joking around on D and while AZ does have a shutdown corner to maybe take away the huge down the field play, pitt will find holes w/ heath miller or whoever they stick in the slot and willie parker will get around the corner and speed kills baby. is boldin healthy enough to play? regardless, outcome will be the same but that i guess could at least make it interesting for a quarter or so. you’ll get another superbowl mwvt9. congrats in advance. go broncos in '09/'10. 
I reported this to Chad, just like people who reported the MMA thread to Chad. This is what I wrote: This thread isn’t about finance, just like 10s or 100s of other threads that aren’t deleted that are irrelevant to finance but are not MMA. So you should delete this and the other 10s or 100s of worthless non-finance threads. REPORTED THREAD #5 LET’S SEE HOW MANY THREADS ARE DELETED THAT ARE NON FINANCE, BUT NON MMA.
well, you’re up $200 right now.
You were right about the first leg of the bet. +$200 to you. The fact that the NFC has won the coinflip 12 times in a row is astounding. Odds of that are 4,000:1. Looks like the Steeleres might be off to scoring first.
UndergradCFA Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > well, you’re up $200 right now. make that $350
UndergradCFA Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > UndergradCFA Wrote: > -------------------------------------------------- > ----- > > well, you’re up $200 right now. > > > make that $350 well, maybe only +$50, then. lol
if this was a true hedge fund there would be a market dislocation that you are taking advantage of… if it was a hedge fund that was similiar to many of the ones that popped up the last 3 years, then you are just taking 1% and 20% management and performance fees, (only if you win)… if you ran your assets through Lehman PB then your bookie who owes you your money, just died and his wife who lives in London, says you signed a contract that said the bets were void upon death of the bookie. If its a ponzi scheme your bookie already spent your money and you and others are SOL. good luck
not too shabby so far i must say
looks like i might walk with a bill
mwvt9 Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > I don’t think you guys understand the Steeler > defense. > > I doubt that either team will march down the field > on their first possession. The mixture of the > atmosphere, adrenaline and defense will make it > hard. Everything I said in this post was 100% wrong.