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Expected MPS Range

Supposedly it’s rounded according to the explanation of the method.

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I recalculated my average scores for Level 1 and 2 (passed both) that I have taken earlier based on the 40/60/80 rule… and it turned out that my average scores were 72% and 73% respectively.

For Level 3 it is different and I hope that different would get me a charter this year :)

Best of luck to you folks !

IHateMyLIFO wrote:

MrSmart wrote:

The MPS changes year-to-year. It’s based on the difficulty of the exam compared to previous exams. The idea is to balance the number of candidates passing with the same competency maintained throughout the years. No one really knows how it works. All we do know is that the pass rate is getting lower as the pool of candidates get bigger, and the passers are simillarly competent independant of the time the was exam taken.

This only makes half sense. If the idea is to maintain the same level of competency of those who pass, then the same % of candidates should pass each year. That’s not the case though. I’m not  sure why CFAI doesn’t determine the MPS to smooth out the fluctuations in pass rates—with hundreds of thousands of people taking the tests they can’t argue that the level of competency (on average) changes from year-to-year.  

As an anology, if 100,000 people went to take their drivers’ test and 75,000 people passed, you would expect that 75% of the people who took their drivers’ exam next year would pass, regardless of the number who tried. And however many who passed would be just as competent (as measured by reaching the minimum requirements of the driving test) as those who passed last year’s test.

CFAI basically tweaks the “minimum requirements of the driving test” each year. One year you’re allowed five moves to parallel park your car, the next year you’re only allowed four. Any apparently it takes about 8 weeks to do so.

I have no clue if anything I just typed made any sense, but that’s what i think of the whole MPS system.

That’s not necessarily true. The competency of those people taking the exam may change from year-to-year, which would result in a different % of people passing the exam each year.

That’s what I’m trying to say though. Is is reasonable to believe that the average compentency of the candidates and the distribution of their levels of competency changes from year-to-year? With such a large sample, it’s hard to make that case. I guess one could argue that as the % of first time takers versus re-takers changes, so does the competency of the group.

Just to add on to the drama of predicting the MPS…..

I accidentaly saw this thread pertaining to CFA L2 2009…But, since cut off score could more or less remain same each year, MPS could be as high as between 80/120 and 83/120.

http://www.analystforum.com/forums/cfa-level-ii-forum/91047689

There are two scores on this thread on the very first page and if u see the min and max range, it turns out that MPS will, in all probability, be between 80/120 and 83/120 which is a very short range.

Looking at 2014 scores as well, its quite possible that MPS was around 66-68%.


For some reason, this page is not opening and I am unable to copy/paste the link here.

You can just type on google- cfa 2009 level 2 mps 66% and reach out on first link that comes..

you guys are freaking out and worrying too much about a number that 1) you’ll never really know; and 2) you can’t do anything about.  Enjoy your break until July 28, and worry about it then. 

Would You Look at That wrote:

you guys are freaking out and worrying too much about a number that 1) you’ll never really know; and 2) you can’t do anything about.  Enjoy your break until July 28, and worry about it then. 

I’m not worried at all, just find it entertaining.

1) It is possible to find out the MPS (or very close to it) if you calculate the maximum possible score for one person’s test who barely passed and the minimum possible score for a another person’s test who barely failed. The MPS will be between the two.

2) You are right, there’s nothing we can do about it.

Would You Look at That wrote:

you guys are freaking out and worrying too much about a number that 1) you’ll never really know; and 2) you can’t do anything about.  Enjoy your break until July 28, and worry about it then. 

But, I enjoy all of these overly confident posts about what the MPS is “certain” to have been or the score a candidate “definitely” achieved. Maybe it’s not an outright statement, but it comes close, given the amount of time people are putting into this– as if they are just moments away from the big discovery that will shatter life as we know it. I agree with you, though. Why bother at this point? You study as hard as you could before the test and you took the exam– nothing after that will change your score.

IHateMyLIFO wrote:

Would You Look at That wrote:

you guys are freaking out and worrying too much about a number that 1) you’ll never really know; and 2) you can’t do anything about.  Enjoy your break until July 28, and worry about it then. 

I’m not worried at all, just find it entertaining.

1) It is possible to find out the MPS (or very close to it) if you calculate the maximum possible score for one person’s test who barely passed and the minimum possible score for a another person’s test who barely failed. The MPS will be between the two.

2) You are right, there’s nothing we can do about it.

Unless you have every single L2 exam, that’s not going to happen.  Otherwise, you’ll never know the “worst” passing matrix or the “best” failing matrix. Kick back, have a glass of bourbon and enjoy. 

I’d like to think that after studying as many hours as we did that we could be confident of answering at least 1/2 the questions correctly.  Assuming we were confident of answering at least 60 questions correctly, to pass (assuming a pass rate of 67 - 70%), we’d need to correctly guess on a 1/3 of the remaining questions.  That we’re spending so much time trying to guess the MPS suggests that we’re not at all confident of our ability to guess well… or at least not on the exam.

lammy wrote:

deleted

Do you say bad things that the mods delete, or are you having buyer’s remorse after you post?  I’ve noticed quite a few of these for you!angel

tickersu wrote:

lammy wrote:

deleted

Do you say bad things that the mods delete, or are you having buyer’s remorse after you post?  I’ve noticed quite a few of these for you!angel

Yeah, right?  I’ve been in the doldrums - trying to get over failing or being in Band 11 at best.

takeawalkk wrote:

This was band 10 last year..hopeful this year though!

Q#

Topic

Max Pts

<=50%

51%-70%

>70%

-

Alternative Investments

18

*

-

-

-

Corporate Finance

36

-

*

-

-

Derivatives

36

-

*

-

-

Economics

18

-

-

*

-

Equity Investments

72

-

-

*

-

Ethical & Professional Standards

36

-

*

-

-

Financial Reporting & Analysis

72

-

*

-

-

Fixed Income Investments

18

-

-

*

-

Portfolio Management

36

-

*

-

-

Quantitative Methods

18

*

-

-

10% confidence interval is 62.27% - 62.36% (using statistical simulation in R) for those Band 10 results. So, MPS was greater than 62% (pass rate 46% for that year).

People claiming 80% MPS, do they even got a clue what they be talking about?!

memalos wrote:

People claiming 80% MPS, do they even got a clue what they be talking about?!

Impossible. I took some many mocks and I can almost guess within about 3-5 percent of my score every time. There was a TON of non core material. The scores are not going to be good overall. I had a guy to BOTH my left and right with there heads down on their desks during the PM and sighing heavily. I have a feeling it will not be over 63-65 at a max. 60-63 or so is my guess for raw score needed. 

I feel the MPS this year would be around 62-63%. 

Based on the Topic Weights from some other results that were posted here last year in July 2017, for June 2017 Level 2 Exam, The Band 10 result posted by you is definitely NOT from June 2017 Level 2 Exam. Could be from June 2016 Level 2 Exam or from previous year?

Ouch, Whatever year the topic weight that was posted in this thread woulda been a nightmare for me..  I prefer more FI, DERV, and Quant.

sydneyguy wrote:

Based on the Topic Weights from some other results that were posted here last year in July 2017, for June 2017 Level 2 Exam, The Band 10 result posted by you is definitely NOT from June 2017 Level 2 Exam. Could be from June 2016 Level 2 Exam or from previous year?

The results posted above are from neither 2016 or 2017 as I sat for both. So I would presume that it’s from an earlier test.

Thought so.

I always thought it was % based and not rounded, hence the ethics adjustment. for example if the average top 1% was 330/360 points this would be 91.66%. 70% of this would be 64.16% which would equate 76.99 questions you would need to get right. Everyone that gets 77 points or over is a pass. Those that got 76 questions right get the ethics bump. Obviously the MPS could be 74.6 questions and those that got 74 questions right would get an ethics bump. Pure speculation, but 70% of the top 1% is a relative measure of candidacy competency and not too far out of the realm of possibility. 

I wonder which is more closely guarded: the coca-cola formula or the cfai mps method….

deleted. wrong input

Yes, I just continued the old topic of 2015. I programmatically simulated all possible outcomes producing the posted results and built a statistical distribution. It revealed that most likely MPS was less than 63%.

Would You Look at That wrote:

you guys are freaking out and worrying too much about a number that 1) you’ll never really know; and 2) you can’t do anything about.  Enjoy your break until July 28, and worry about it then. 

Level 1 and Level 2 candidates can actually enjoy beyond 28th July 2018, may be till Mid August 2018. The announcement of result usually takes about 7-8 weeks post exam. Registration for the CFA Program re-opens around Mid August 2018 which means that Level 1 and Level 2 results will be announced sometime around Mid August 2018.