going through the readings in SS15?? Readings 58/59 onwards from the schweser notes, what a joke!! It’ll be a good while before mortgage market resembles anything close to that structure again!! They should’ve released amendments updating the readings for the current credit mess! Awesome time to be in the markets though, this is history up-close and personal! Also, Hello Everyone! First post on the forum!! Did Lv 1 in Dec 07, trying to keep the momentum going. And no, I’m not actually upto SS15 - so far I’ve managed to skip and hop randomly between readings from all 5 schweser books - should enter panick mode and a more structured approach by beginning of April. Good Luck everyone!
welcome to helll…
vienna_string Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Awesome time to be in the markets > though, this is history up-close and personal! > Bite me.
thepinkman Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > vienna_string Wrote: > -------------------------------------------------- > ----- > > Awesome time to be in the markets > > though, this is history up-close and personal! > > > > Bite me. HAHAHAHAha, good stuff.
thepinkman Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > vienna_string Wrote: > -------------------------------------------------- > ----- > > Awesome time to be in the markets > > though, this is history up-close and personal! > > > > Bite me. Somebody needs a hug…
I just finished the last couple of readings in SS13 (HF risk/evaluation) and I was definitely laughing (and crying) while reading about abnormal distribution/fat tails of returns for hedge funds…making bets on credit spreads that can move the wrong way…amplified by leverage…how recent history has been pretty tame so not a good predictor of future risk/return. um, yeah. I am guess they will put a little more content into this come next year…
Squirrel24 Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > I just finished the last couple of readings in > SS13 (HF risk/evaluation) and I was definitely > laughing (and crying) while reading about abnormal > distribution/fat tails of returns for hedge > funds…making bets on credit spreads that can > move the wrong way…amplified by leverage…how > recent history has been pretty tame so not a good > predictor of future risk/return. > > um, yeah. I am guess they will put a little more > content into this come next year… Why? So that they can invent some new theory that has no resemblance to the way the market actually works?
thepinkman Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > vienna_string Wrote: > -------------------------------------------------- > ----- > > Awesome time to be in the markets > > though, this is history up-close and personal! > > > > Bite me. Cheer up dude - i’m sure pretty much everyone with any money in the market at all is hurting right now!! Feels like we’ll be at these levels for a while yet! The only plus for me right now is not living & earning in the US, all of a sudden I can order a whole heap of stuff from amazon.com for much cheaper thanks to the new US Peso policy - go Ben!!
ValueAddict Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Squirrel24 Wrote: > -------------------------------------------------- > ----- > > I just finished the last couple of readings in > > SS13 (HF risk/evaluation) and I was definitely > > laughing (and crying) while reading about > abnormal > > distribution/fat tails of returns for hedge > > funds…making bets on credit spreads that can > > move the wrong way…amplified by > leverage…how > > recent history has been pretty tame so not a > good > > predictor of future risk/return. > > > > um, yeah. I am guess they will put a little > more > > content into this come next year… > > Why? So that they can invent some new theory that > has no resemblance to the way the market actually > works? Thats a bit of a redundant question - the entire discipline is pretty much a collection of theories that have no place in reality - from top to bottom! The field exists to basically keep thousands globally employed in practice or in academis! >So the efficient frontier should aid in portfolio management, but its assumptions make it not really applicable to the real world of investing. >Fundamental analysis relies on discoutning future earnings/cashflows, but these need to be guesstimated by the anayst with no guarantees on accuracy. (I mean, who can actually predict how much they’ll spend in the next month to the nearest dollar let alone how much a multinational operation with a hundred and one variable will rake in for the whole financial year!) >A mass of quant models are meant to predict future prices and risk, but pretty much most inputs are estiamtes prone to human error or based on stats run on historical data series which cannot contain every possible outcome for the future becuase of their limited history and bias of historical events. >Even the very basics of supply and demand require “rationale” behaviour, but humans are anything but!! So dis-illusioned right now - after aiming for it for ages I finally got my entry into the dream gig, only to discover the whole profession is basically about trying to fudge theories and analysis to explain somehitng that is inherently random in nature! Doesn’t matter how good or bad an analyst you are, end of the day luck reveals the outcome and you’re just there tweaking your numbers and theories to explain what the market is doing and why it is/isn’t what you predicted! Dammit, i’ll just go pour myself a drink and get over it, so what if the whole industry is just a bunch of used car salesmen, atleast its a living eh? shouldn’t complain or be ungrateful.
very true, vienna!! Even the basic Equity forecasting model - DDM is soo much dependent on ‘r’ and ‘g’ and the value forecasted is so damm sensitive to the spread in the denominator. Forget about the other 2-stage/n-stage/FCFF/FCFE/RI models. I am curious to know how all this works in the real-world since everything looks so neat on the books.
Vienna, You didn’t know this before going into the field? And your statement about how the entire industry is a bunch of used car salesman - it’s not entirely correct. However, I work with a bunch of used car salesman. I don’t know how they are able to sleep well at night. After hopefully earning the charter and attending business school the first thing I will do is have the leverage not to work with used car salesmen. More than half of Wall Street can be coined your term. I use Wall Street loosely. But don’t be discouraged. Maybe your looking in the wrong place.