Here and there i saw posts that say a certain part of the material will most likely be on the exam. how do you guys figure this? Also, it tends to focus on new sections…howdo you figure that new sections in 09 are most likely to be tested?
People are guessing that. Also read a whole host of posts that say that given the limited # of questions on the level II exam + the item set format - there is every possibility that you might find you do not know maybe 3 or 4 questions of an item set and if that happens on more than one item set - you can kiss your chances of passing a very clean good bye. You still have time, so work thro’ and try to get the concepts straight, instead of trying to game the test. that is my very sincere advice. most of us are in the same boat, trying to work thro’ stuff we cannot understand. So let us help each other kill this beast.
What you ‘think’ will be on the exam probably won’t be there, and what you ‘don’t think’ will be on the exam will be there for sure. That’s all you can count on. For example: Last June, everyone was sure that Time Series would be on the test in some form but it wasn’t… while other stuff mentioned in a footnote here or there was given several questions. If you try to game the exam you’re toast. Know everything.
I betted my home on Time Series last year and lost it. I couldn’t have framed it any better than what McLeod did in this - “What you ‘think’ will be on the exam probably won’t be there, and what you ‘don’t think’ will be on the exam will be there for sure”. While I prepare for L2 again, I am trying to ward off any subpoenas issued by the court and with all the litigation and legal fees incurred already to get my home back I could have already got a new home financed with 10% DP and 5% MR for 30-yrs. Now anyone wanna bet on Private Equity for their homes? I would love to take the other side of the bet, as I need a place to live in desperately.
“If you try to game the exam you’re toast. Know everything.” Passed L2 last year. Some of the most obscure, random topics get tested. You really need to know everything. If CFAI just tested the core, most people would pass. CFAI seems to try to separate those who truly know the entire curriculum by testing a blend of both core and more minor topics in equal depth. The minor topics are where you will pull away from the pack, as most people will have mastered to core material.
I don’t believe any of us here will know with certainty what will be on the actual exam. I think what is more appropriate is for people to comment on which sections they feel are testable materials. Then logically speaking, all things equal, the probability of questions drawn from the testable materials would be higher than the probability of questions drawn from the non-testable ones. Schweser provides some indication on which sections are more likely to be tested based on historical data (which is valid if future exams resemble past exams, but obviously this is no guarantee since the curriculum is different every year). The whole point of guessing what would be on the exam, is to improve the efficiency of time allocation to each topic. So it’s not unreasonable to guess that, all else equals, a section has a higher weighting would be more likely to be seen on the exam, than a section that has a lower weighting. There are no magic about these guesses. They are just extrapolation (“educated guesses”) based on certain assumption and records. Needless to say, if you spend too much time guessing what would be on the exam, rather than studying for the exam itself, I don’t think any guesses or extrapolation would help.
but you are wasting your time and everyone else’s time on speculation when it could instead have been used to read and solidify a concept, which might appear on the exam… so go figure. you can speculate, create threads and then you will blame the group for guessing on/speculating on something that did not come, or came. Instead use your own judgement as opposed to a herd of us on the forum and if things do not appear as guessed - you are responsible for the gaming effort, instead of the whole group. and believe me, given the vastness of the syllabus / curriculum - anything’s game. and no amount of guessing is good enough. Schweser / Stalla provide you with some kind of reference point… that is all.
Well, if you just blindly believe in what people say without exercising your own judgment, I don’t think this style of preparation would go anywhere. Differentiate facts from opinions, isn’t this part of what the CFA C&S requires us to achieve in our works? In summary. There are many ways to “guess” what could be on the actual exam, with some guesses being more “educated” than others. But on the exam day, you will be the one who ultimately exercise your own judgment. So, if you fail to differentiate facts from opinions since the beginning, the cause of failure should be pretty apparent.
I agree with cpk that you need to know everything. But I would guess that this time, Time Series & Private Equity will be tested.
I am saying a. curriculum is a given. you need to know what is there because it is testable. b. 90 days or less before an exam trying to get into a speculative state - guessing something will be there, vs. sth will not is NOT efficient use of people’s time. You might respond saying folks, do not click on the link. If you want to post it and not want people to click on it, do NOT POST IN THE LEVEL II Forum. This is strictly for people who have a big thing with trying to prepare and study for the test. Go to the GENERAL FORUM instead and post all you want about these speculative endeavours of yours. You might say I am angry or saying things out of order - but every day these meaningless discussions about a personal thing, esp. on an internet forum is getting to be really bad. Not good at all. Your study methods, and how you go about it, is extremely personal. Everyone here has paid a lot of money to do the exam right. This is a forum to help us all together. This is really not helping. Sorry about the outburst again.
eltia Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > …I think what is more appropriate is for people to > comment on which sections they feel are testable > materials. Then logically speaking, all things > equal, the probability of questions drawn from the > testable materials would be higher than the > probability of questions drawn from the > non-testable ones." It is ALL testable material. Make no mistake about it. We had six questions last year on a very minor PM topic that nobody would have expected to be tested in that kind of depth. The same thing apparently happened in '07.
Interesting. What do you think when Stalla says something like this in their weekly guidance: Reading 33: A Note on Asset Valuation Nothing to learn here. Skip it if you like. After you pass the exam, read Graham and Dodd. https://stallakb.custhelp.com/cgi-bin/stallakb.cfg/php/enduser/std_adp.php?p_faqid=320&p_sid=7*iUtmsj&p_lva=313&p_accessibility=0&p_redirect=&p_li=&p_pv=&p_cv=&p_prods=0&p_cats=0&p_sp=cF9zZWFyY2hfdGV4dD0mcF9zZWFyY2hfdHlwZT1hbnN3ZXJzLnNlYXJjaF9ubCZwX3NvcnRfYnk9 Sounds like examiners would love to stick a vignette on a ludicrous detail of this now!
I posted a question asking about a topic which was in the LOS last year but taken out this year, yet remained in the reading. What is says on the CFAI site here is that: http://www.cfainstitute.org/cfaprog/courseofstudy/los.html “Each exam question is based on one or more LOS. You should be aware that exam questions, particularly at Levels II and III, may combine LOS from several readings, study sessions, and/or topics, especially for purposes of comparison, contrast, analysis, and synthesis. As noted above, the LOS should not be viewed as direct proxies for exam questions. Nevertheless, if you can accomplish the goals set forth in the LOS, you should be able to perform successfully on the exams.” So my reasoning was that if something is not referenced at all in any LOS, its probably not testable. As far as figuring out what topics are more likely to appear than others, I think its a waste of time. Learn all the concepts and do plenty of practice problems. Even if something isn’t a big deal in one reading it may relate to another.