what is the probability of passing the level 3 in the third time. Is there any one who passed it in the 3rd time?
87.32123%
^ get this result also within a 95% confidence interval.
thanks for such a precise number. but, since i am new to this forum, i am actually asking as how many of Afers have cleared it in the 3rd attempt.
This is a bit of an odd question with no set answer… probability of passing this thing is all up to you and how much work you put in it and how you perform on the D day… Study hard, give it all you got and be relaxed on the day of exam and you are sure to pass. Good luck
40-50%, they are random events
Jscott24 Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > 40-50%, they are random events +1 You’re odds of passing are 50%, just like everyone else
artvandalay Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Jscott24 Wrote: > -------------------------------------------------- > ----- > > 40-50%, they are random events > > > +1 > > You’re odds of passing are 50%, just like everyone > else It’s a little bit non-random. Some people are smarter and/or more hardworking and have a higher chance of passing. Some people have a lower chance of passing. The average is just around 50%.
Yeah, I guess it probably is a conditional probability where your hours/quality of study and background affect the probability of passing
it’s either pass or fail. So 50% is correct
-.013% +/- .012987 with 99% confidence.
“what is the probability of passing the level 3 in the third time.” How smart are you?
I think probability of passing is contingent on the amount and quality of preparation, not on the attempt #.
“It’s a little bit non-random. Some people are smarter and/or more hardworking and have a higher chance of passing. Some people have a lower chance of passing. The average is just around 50%.” And let’s not forget that although you didn’t retain enough to pass the first two times, the overwhelming likelihood is that you’ve retained some of that material and have a “leg up” on the new candidates, so it’s not random at all - in fact, I’d be fairly certain that the correlation between number of attempts and pass rates is high, until you get to the law of diminishing returns for people who simply can’t pass the test with 100 attempts because they lack one of the key skills for doing so (either effort or intellect). All that being said, hit the books and you’ll be fine, two fails is nowhere near the point where you should start questioning yourself.
“I’d be fairly certain that the correlation between number of attempts and pass rates is high” I doubt it’s a linear relationship. I would guess that a higher percentage of 2nd time takers pass than first time takers, but the passing rate falls for each attempt thereafter. I have no evidence to back that up of course.
Nobody has so it makes this discussion pretty useless.
It can’t be done.
rather than probability of passing third time… more relevant point is what didn’t worked for past two attempts!! and based on outcome of above what needs to be done now…
rp77 Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > rather than probability of passing third time… > more relevant point is what didn’t worked for past > two attempts!! and based on outcome of above what > needs to be done now… Good point rp77. One should not ask themselves, “Why did I fail?” but rather “What did I do?” that caused me to fail and then adjust behaviors (strategy) accordingly to hopefully pass next time around.
Thanks, But you know, I actually do not know what more to do this time. If you give me my paper back, then also i will not know which questions were wrong. I thought that i did very well on the afternoon session. But, thanks for all the inputs