In all of the examples I have seen the unexpected and expected interest rate effects have been equal for the portfolio and the benchmark. I don’t really understand this. Why are they the same if the manager is making active duration bets? What situation would cause them to be different?
expected interest rate effects = return on risk free benchmark assume no change in forward rate Unexpected interest rate effects = return due to change in forward rate (due to yield curve twist for example) These two effects represents performance of passive default free bond (not active mgn). So they are the same for benchmark and portfolio. Active duration bets effect comes under interest rate mgn effect.
Are you referring to default free as treasuries only?
yes, external interest rate environment is estimated from term structure of Treasury securities. Expected return = implied forward rate Unexpected return = actual realized return on treasury - market implied forward rate So expected return + unexpected return = actual realized return on treasury.
So is the expected and unexpected values of the portfolio and the benchmark always the same? How can it be if in the section below, the manager made duration bets? For instance, dur(BM) = 10 and dur(port) = 9 If manager made an active bet how can the expected and unexpected return due to changes in the default free curve be the same?
Total Rp = Effect of external interest environment + Contribution of active management Effect of external interest environment consists of 1) unexpected interest rate effects 2) expected interest rate effects. Contribution of active management consists of 3) Return interest rate return 4) Return on sector mgn 5) Return on security selection 6) Return on trading activities Active return from duration bet are shown under interest rate mgn effect (3) not under unexpected and expected interest rate effects (1 or 2). Unexpected interest rate effects and expected interest rate effects shows only passively holding of passive default free bond (treasuries).
So expected interest rate effects of port will ALWAYS = expected interest rate effects of benchmark and unexpected interest rate effects of port will ALWAYS = unexpected interest rate effect of BM?
yes
Perhaps we can think in this way. Risk free return on your portfolio is the same as risk free return on the benchmark.
What is the trading returns portion?
jmac01 Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > What is the trading returns portion? It’s a plug number.
Thank you all - very helpful