What is the difference between the “if only” and “ceteris paribus” defense. From my understanding; The “if only” defense is that if the factors that were in the analysis/prediction happened/followed, then the analysis/prediction would be correct. The “ceteris paribus” defense is that because factors that were not originally in the analysis/predictions happened, therefore the prediction was incorrect. So… if there were no unexpected factors/changes and everything that were expected to remain the same, then the prediction would have been correct. So the difference is “if only” defense is when factors happen(or didn’t happen) the way its is suppose to, then prediction would be correct. and “ceteris paribus” means something unexpected interferred with the forecast that made the prediction incorrect… But if you said: “if only did not interferred with the forecast, then the forecast would be correct” Would that be an “if only” defense or “ceteris paribus” defense?
and I saw this thread posted in March on c.p vs if only… but was still unclear to me… > http://www.analystforum.com/phorums/read.php?13,1119639,1119639#msg-1119639
Ryn Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > and I saw this thread posted in March on c.p vs if > only… but was still unclear to me… > > > > > http://www.analystforum.com/phorums/read.php?13,11 > 19639,1119639#msg-1119639 The link was helpful enough to distinguish between both of them. “If only” has to do with “only” one parameter not falling into place as expected. From my understanding of the text, it may also involve one or two other factors. Ceteris paribus is the situation in which an extraneous factor that was not considered bombs the initial forecast. All the factors were intact but the equilibrium was damaged by another factor that showed up.
To further clarify, ceteris paribus is the inability to isolate a single factor in a prediction. In reality, several variables change simultaneously to impact a dependent variable while theories like to test the effect of a specific independent variable(s) on a dependant variable.