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Who fails this exam?

Looking at the comments on the forum, I do not see who fails this exam….

Granted the sample is skewed to the right, but everyone (80%) seems to be getting mock scores in the mid 70s, have done virtually every exam since 2004 and get mid 60s (and are probably harsh on their grading, from what they are saying…). So the question is, who fails this exam?

1. The people who run out of time - probably only 10-20% of them are in the above sample

2. People who had a bad day…. 5-10%?

3. People who have done very little, but show up anyway… 5%?

4. Under-reported people in the forums who don’t speak much because they are not doing that great on the prep… 20?

Then make sure you did everything you could to prepare—enroll in a review workshop to ace it on exam day.

How many AFs are in total candidates population? I was lurking on prior years result reveal topics and had impression that about 80 % of AFs had passed level 3. Maybe my impressions are wrong.

I don't sell a smiling dog, forget about it .
The day before, walking through the park, he met me with her.

Flashback wrote:

How many AFs are in total candidates population? I was lurking on prior years result reveal topics and had impression that about 80 % of AFs had passed level 3. Maybe my impressions are wrong.

Flashback if I were a betting man, I’d put money on you passing.

More likely for someone who passed to post his results….

People who leave their calculator in BGN mode and go into the AM and PM exam. 1%.

Revision is futile......

Be cool if someone who is taking it easy today went back and looked at last years mock results thread and then ran a comparison against the exam result thread…

AlmostOver wrote:

More likely for someone that passed to post his results…. 

Backfill bias ;)

The Borg wrote:

People who leave their calculator in BGN mode and go into the AM and PM exam. 1%.

Unless all of the questions were around calculating future value of insurance premiums..

pachstar wrote:

Flashback if I was a betting man, I’d put money on you passing.

Thank you. We’ll take a virtual beer once we pass.:)

I don't sell a smiling dog, forget about it .
The day before, walking through the park, he met me with her.

Survivorship bias?

Everything is biased. Your real results will be biased too.:)

I don't sell a smiling dog, forget about it .
The day before, walking through the park, he met me with her.

AlmostOver wrote:

Looking at the comments on the forum, I do not see who fails this exam….

Granted the sample is skewed to the right, but everyone (80%) seems to be getting mock scores in the mid 70s, have done virtually every exam since 2004 and get mid 60s (and are probably harsh on their grading, from what they are saying…). So the question is, who fails this exam?

1. The people who run out of time - probably only 10-20% of them are in the above sample

2. People who had a bad day…. 5-10%?

3. People who have done very little, but show up anyway… 5%?

4. Under-reported people in the forums that don’t speak much because they are not doing that great on the prep… 20?

Easy to understand. 1)AM grading is subjective, we have no idea. 2) Personally I finished about 3-5 minutes early on the AM I took (3 3 hour timed), add in crunch time and they gap closes to 1-0 minutes easy on exam day. 3) We all have weaknesses, wrong set of combo we get rocked. 

I think best assumption is just take the avg pass rate and apply it to people on the forum. Because the majority of people register to AF don’t post or if they fail don’t say they failed. Definitely skewed to the right, also having PM a few charterholders who still contribute to the forum recommended not to be active on AF. Also my 3 Day schweser Tutor suggested the same thing saying 80% of the things on AF aren’t relevant because people keep straying away from what’s tested. 

you should know this by now

Don’t know about the forum but I know two types of losers in the exam entrance:

1. Brought a wrong calculator

2. Is reading notes while presenting passport.

Tell me and I forget.
Teach me and I forget.
Involve me and forget.
-Something Franklin

About half of you will fail.

#goodluck

the way i figure it is that within a normal distribution.. MOST candidates are scoring between 55-70% (a very tight range)

people in band 10 literally miss the MPS cuttoff by 1-2 multiple choice questions.. band 9 3-4 questions and so on

the better question that is unknown and up for debate is what % of first timers/ retakers pass the exam..

i think it is something ike 70% pass rate for retakers and closer to 40% for first timers

the 40/60/80 analysis shows interquartile range of 60-68% (i.e 64% is a pass).

i.e. each band 5-10 is about 1%, or maybe less than 1% (say 4minutes), so every 4minutes you drop on an IPS is dropping a band..

good luck everybody!

I think I can help here.  It would be nice if the distribution were normal, but I’m pretty sure it’s not.  1. Other exams like the bar exams that publish the full distributions aren’t close to normal.  They are typically skewed.  Almost no one gets close to a perfect score, but some real losers do awful.  Thus, the mean is less than the median.  2. Though imprecise, the 300 hours distributions and the resource teepee scatter plots don’t look like normal distributions.  

For every other professional exam that shows pass rates for first time and repeat takers, the repeat takers have lower pass rates, usually much lower.

I do think it is a pretty narrow passing band.  However, in addition to weighting ethics heavier for marginal students, something else looks like it is going on.  The 300 hours histograms make me suspect that the topic weights get Reweighted. I have at least three possible reasons: 1. People who do really bad in ethics are getting penalized.  2. Some questions are getting thrown out.  Topics which were supposed to be x% of the exam are less than the stated %.  This wouldn’t surprise me, since I’ve heard that a few questions might be tossed in a given year.  3. The minimum passing score under the Angoff method is not a single number, like 67%, but has something else, like higher weighting for some questions or topics.  This is really interesting, but not supported by the Institute’s description of the process.  The only place the Institute says it does something like this is in the Level 3 AM.  If I were designing the scoring system, I would do this at all levels.

MunicipalBob wrote:

For every other professional exam that shows pass rates for first time and repeat takers, the repeat takers have lower pass rates, usually much lower.

Did not know that. Wonder how well that predicts L3. Can you say that those professional exams have something like L2 preceding them, where a lot of serious people are weeded out? I’ve assumed the L3 exam isn’t a “weeding out” exam. I.e., if you have passed L2, you’re basically going to pass L3, provided you a) invest the hours to go deep on just about everything in L3; b) get a lot of experience writing AM papers under exam conditions. My position now is: I tried to do that, and if I fail, I’ll just have to do more of that.

Would love to know whether I’m wrong, and whether L3 truly does weed out people who have the skill to pass L2, but lack some special sauce needed for L3. I didn’t detect anything like that – other than one’s comfort in some nuances of English (which is outside of the curriculum).

MunicipalBob wrote:

For every other professional exam that shows pass rates for first time and repeat takers, the repeat takers have lower pass rates, usually much lower.

I think CFA level 3 could be an exception here.. remember these people all passed level 2 so clearly every is “capable” of passing level 3.

for other professional exams that are a single exam..like the BAR exam it’s possible many people that take it have no business there in the first place  and keep trying and keep failing.. 

Maybe retakers have “much lower” pass rates at level 1 or even 2 meaning they will “never” pass.. but not 3

Everyone here has his own theory and it’s getting hard to follow all these philosophical ideas.

I don't sell a smiling dog, forget about it .
The day before, walking through the park, he met me with her.

biuku wrote:

MunicipalBob wrote:

For every other professional exam that shows pass rates for first time and repeat takers, the repeat takers have lower pass rates, usually much lower.

Did not know that. Wonder how well that predicts L3. Can you say that those professional exams have something like L2 preceding them, where a lot of serious people are weeded out? I’ve assumed the L3 exam isn’t a “weeding out” exam. I.e., if you have passed L2, you’re basically going to pass L3, provided you a) invest the hours to go deep on just about everything in L3; b) get a lot of experience writing AM papers under exam conditions. My position now is: I tried to do that, and if I fail, I’ll just have to do more of that.

Would love to know whether I’m wrong, and whether L3 truly does weed out people who have the skill to pass L2, but lack some special sauce needed for L3. I didn’t detect anything like that – other than one’s comfort in some nuances of English (which is outside of the curriculum).

David Heatherington at Schweser spends a lot of time talking about how level 3 AM is different, and that even the PM questions are more conceptual and less prone to memorization at level 3.  I think Level 3 is real trouble for memorizers, people unwilling to practice the AM format, people who think they should be able to use formulas rather than understanding concepts, people with poor time management skills, those who are easily flustered/have test anxiety.  Various versions of inefficient study, procrastination, sleep deprivation, trying to do the minimum to barely pass, and cramming right before the exam are also trouble.  

I couldn’t sleep a night before exam because mosquitos entered into my room and I can’t sleep with mosquitos. Do you think this could negatively affect my performance?

Next year I build in a mosquito net for sure.

I don't sell a smiling dog, forget about it .
The day before, walking through the park, he met me with her.

Yes, anything that keeps you from sleeping could hurt your score.  I’ve kept notes on my test performance and it’s consistently worse when I’m tired.  This is consistent with the academic research.  

If you are lucky, you got more hours of sleep than you thought.  Did you feel sleepy during the exam?

Yes and I was feeling sleepy since August 2016 and level 2 exam till now. I have pills.

I don't sell a smiling dog, forget about it .
The day before, walking through the park, he met me with her.

Simon UR a but plug