I’m just doing the 2015 AM paper.
CFAI guideline answer is 15 times longer than mine. BUT:
What would you say is missing from my answer? Is it necessary to repeat what each figure in the equation represents? Or in such a case explain the definition of the Taylor rule? (which was not asked by the question??) Or what?
My answer:
2.5 + 0.5(1.2-1) + 0.5(1.5-2) =2.35%. CB should loosen monetary policy, decrease interest rate as there is a negative output gap.
CFAI guideline answer:
The central bank, assuming it follows the Taylor rule, should loosen monetary policy. The
Taylor rule links a central bank’s target short-term interest rate to economic growth and inflation.
If the optimal short-term interest rate derived from the equation differs from the neutral rate, this
suggests that the central bank should change its monetary policy to be more or less
accommodative…
Taylor rule: Roptimal = Rneutral + [0.5(GDPgforecast – GDPgtrend) + 0.5(Iforecast – Itarget)]
Where:
Roptimal = the target for the short-term interest rate
Rneutral = the short-term interest rate that would be targeted if GDP growth were on trend and
inflation on target
GDPgforecast = the GDP forecast growth rate
GDPgtrend = the observed GDP trend growth rate
Iforecast = the forecast inflation rate
Itarget = the target inflation rate.
Roptimal = 2.50% + [0.5
(1.50% – 2.00%) + 0.5
(1.20% – 1.00%)] = 2.35%
Since the optimal short-term rate of 2.35% is 15 bps lower than the current short-term interest
Since the optimal short-term rate of 2.35% is 15 bps lower than the current short-term interest
rate target of 2.50%, the central bank should loosen its monetary policy.
The central bank, assuming it follows the Taylor rule, should loosen monetary policy. The
Taylor rule links a central bank’s target short-term interest rate to economic growth and inflation.
If the optimal short-term interest rate derived from the equation differs from the neutral rate, this
suggests that the central bank should change its monetary policy to be more or less
accommodative…
Taylor rule: Roptimal = Rneutral + [0.5(GDPgforecast – GDPgtrend) + 0.5(Iforecast – Itarget)]
Where:
Roptimal = the target for the short-term interest rate
Rneutral = the short-term interest rate that would be targeted if GDP growth were on trend and
inflation on target
GDPgforecast = the GDP forecast growth rate
GDPgtrend = the observed GDP trend growth rate
Iforecast = the forecast inflation rate
Itarget = the target inflation rate.
Roptimal = 2.50% + [0.5
(1.50% – 2.00%) + 0.5
(1.20% – 1.00%)] = 2.35%
Since the optimal short-term rate of 2.35% is 15 bps lower than the current short-term interest
Since the optimal short-term rate of 2.35% is 15 bps lower than the current short-term interest
rate target of 2.50%, the central bank should loosen its monetary policy.