Working on a side project … Been asked to write a service for a mobile app to calculate some betting odds.
If the odds prior to the start of a soccer game for the number of passes a player will make is eighteen passes. That means the over 18 passes has approximately 50% probability while the under 8 passes has 50% probability (minus the bookie spread).
So you can say the player will average .2 passes per min over 90 minute game. What’s the best way to calculate the odds, let’s say immediately after 5 minutes of the game, the player already takes 3 passes (averaging .6).
Will bayers theorem work? What other ways can you sort of make an algorithm for calculating the odds as things change?
Just looking for linear interpretation, not all the actual play mechanics in real games.
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