I believe 62-63%. What do you guys think ?
60-62. AFers would anyway bias the score upwards.
60-62
Re-taker here. Last year, I think general consensus was that the MPS was either 59-60. So I’m going to say 59-61.
Given that PM was found slightly tough this time by people(atleast to those i spoke) and reading here, plus AM usual mix of question, I am hoping MPS should be around 60 not more. But then its a opaque process and all we can do is make educated guess !
based on last years matricies, a 50th percentile score on the essay and MC was around a 51 and a 70% respectively.
i would find it very hard to believe the MPS is that far above 60%. 61 tops. no way its 63.
As long as you can outperform the people who sat on either side of you you should be fine ;).
But really though it’s all about being better than 50% of the people there and the MPS takes care of itself. Do you have confidence you were top 50%?
The guy next to me was chilling all the exam. He said he had an headache and couldn’t concentrate. However, it’s a sample representativeness bias.
60% MPS would mean 108/180 and 36/60 for AM/PM respectively. Certainly, there can’t be many people at level 3 scoring below that, right? That doesn’t seem like a passing score, but if it is then I guess that’s cool too.
MPS is based on total, not each half. So what’s more likely to happen is you’ll have someone scoring something like 50% on the AM and then 70% on the PM. That’s how people who do bad in the morning still pass because they killed it in the afternoon to bring the average up…
PM was harder this year compared to the last, so I am praying the 50% line for PM this year will be around 39/60.
So if the average score is below average and many people didn’t score well, would they reduce the MPS?
Or let the pass rate drop?
theyll do as they please but dropping the pass rates is a scary reality
Interesting comments… feeling more hopeful now 
rarely ever does someone hit the (roughly ~) 61% MPS by getting 61 on both AM and PM. it almost always plays out like this:
AM: anywhere btw 48% and 52% (ish)
PM: anywhere btw 68 and 72% (ish)
this is why getting a 60% < on the AM (assuming you are grading yourself accurately) is considered the “safety point” at L3. its because if youre good enough to get 108/180 on the essay, the odds of you NOT being good enough to get 40/60 on the MC are incredibly low.
I think this was true in previous years, but this years PM seemed much more difficult. I’m fairly confident I did better on AM than PM by at least 5-10%. It feels like CFAI is going to make you earn it this year with a more balanced exam and not let a mediocre AM pass with an easy PM. Just my take.
So where does that leave the MPS !
MPS is like god. Surely there’s something out there, but who the feck knows what it is.
59% - 61% !! Took the exam last year and it was definitely very close to 60!