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Siri, Please sell my AAPL stock

I’m thinking of writing puts now. 

No Homo

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I got in over $620.. feel stupid :(

Nah, watch ‘em blow out earnings.  The animal spirits of the markets do not want Chicken Tikka to retire to an island, yet.  My short position has to get killed. 

No Homo

Sold at 590, rebought at 570

I’d like to buy it at around 450.  I’m hoping everyone gets suicidal about the iphone losing its edge in the short term.

I’ll put every dime I got into a levered bet on this thing come Fall.  I would just prefer to start a lower number than 556.  AAPL is gonna wreck **** up come q1 2013. 

No Homo

ChickenTikka wrote:

AAPL is gonna wreck **** up come q1 2013. 

Just wondering, is this based on evidence, or are you just cheering it like a good football team?

You want a quote?  Haven’t I written enough already???

Well, if random people are starting to talk about selling, then maybe that indicates that many people will sell soon. Stock prices change based on the number of buyers and sellers, so maybe “cheerleaders” are an important factor after all. 

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bchadwick wrote:

ChickenTikka wrote:

AAPL is gonna wreck **** up come q1 2013. 

Just wondering, is this based on evidence, or are you just cheering it like a good football team?

I have a very bullish theory about Apple expanding with the Ipanel into new businesses and stealing more market share from existing businesses.  Basically I think that people will follow the apple brand pretty much anywhere because they already have everything set up with apple anyway.  They don’t need to corner more smartphones because they will corner other industries by getting people, who use apple for everything else to switch.  

Oh yeah, and the iPhone 5 will come out, so every dickhead will buy one for Christmas. But everyone is assuming that.

No Homo

the thing i would ask is, how many times can you overcharge someone for the same thing? once, twice, three times? we know it won’t go on forever though…..i have never used or played with an appl product aside from what a few losers have shown me…..

Yeah, I owned an Iphone 3g.  It was a good phone.  I had it for three years just about and finally broke it.  Then I bought a samsung android phone with dual sim trays that is pretty much just as good but cost 200 dollars.

I still have my original ipad.  Can’t imagine what would make me buy a new one.

I have a macbook pro that is about 5 years old that AAPL gave me when I worked for them in college. 

However, plenty of people seem to upgrade these things all of the time.

No Homo

EPS….>$10.00.  Stock trades over $620 in after hours

just guessing

I don’t think so.  I think it needs to beat estimates by quite a bit for that to happen. I’ll put it this way <10 dollars and the stock will drop a mile.  515 would be my guess. 

The earnings don’t really matter though.  Apple had a good quarter we all know that.  The issue is what’s coming.

No Homo

I actually didn’t bother looking at the estimates until after I posted it.  I guess $10.07 is the median estimate.  So I’ll up my guess to $11.50.

Their forward estimates are meaningless.  Number of iPhones, iPads, and iMacs sold is all that matters.

Hehe, ouch. 

No Homo

I agree that part of the Apple story is how they have come to have a major presence and/or domination of new markets.  There’s the Mac line (major presence, but not dominant), the iPod line (dominant), the smartphone line (dominant), the tablet line (dominant), the online music sales (not sure if they’re dominant, but they are major).  So Apple’s future growth - if it’s going to look like its past growth - needs to be tied to including new markets and tying them together.

In my mind, the big if is whether they can continue to be “insanely great” without S. Jobs there to provide some mania.  I’m sure the pipeline still has a few Jobs magic items in it, but when that runs out, can they do it on their own?  At a minimum, it is worth wondering.  Will they start to let things slip… designs become more blah… glass become more scratchy, etc…


You want a quote?  Haven’t I written enough already???

Even my foolish optimism wasn’t enough.  $12.30 EPS. 

That’ll do pig.

Yeah, I wonder if Zerohedge will stop picking on them now?

Well, I didn’t get my wish to buy the stock cheap.  But there is still plenty of time.

No Homo

They guided pretty low for Q3.  They always lowball though.  Still, I’ll stick with my original guess that Q3 will disappoint.  I’ll be a buyer around xmas time.

Kabaka wrote:

Sold at 590, rebought at 570

:)

i’m very pleased to hear apple had great numbers…..

DAMN IT. Oh well. Mr. Market will probably push it back down.

So am I

Frank, you know how healthy freaks have a cheat day once in a while and eat a greasy meal.  You should do the same with your portfolio and have a cheat stock (i.e. growth stock).

No different from taking a break from HCBs and banging a HTC in between.

Telling it like it is on AF since 2007.

Hahaha. a cheat stock.

Mine would be FFN

No Homo

i believe most of the companies i own are growth stocks……i’m willing to wager over 10 years, teva will grow its EPS faster than aapl using Fiscal 2011 as the base. 

FrankArabia wrote:

i believe most of the companies i own are growth stocks……i’m willing to wager over 10 years, teva will grow its EPS faster than aapl using Fiscal 2011 as the base. 

I’ll take that bet, and I’ll give you 3-to-1 odds just to make it fair.  They’ll be able to do it organically, but even if they couldn’t, you can buy a lot of growth with $110B in cash. 

See you in 10.  I accept payment in maple syrup and hockey jerseys.

3 to 1? ok…..EPS per share……2022 April

What about FFN?

No Homo

don’t know anything about the company but pulled out their Q4 2011 results.

income weighed dwon by interest expense due to heavy debt load and declining subscriber base leads to a good bankruptcy candidate. however, the company actually makes decent EBITDa.

with that said, you should problably look to get the debt. when this thing restructures, there is still value from this company. 

Frankie if you want to make a really wild “cheat investment” like the others are peer pressuring you into.


Look at ATPGP 8% Preferred. That’s the HTB of stocks.

Right back where we started.  I actually have written puts with a 565 strike that expire today so hoping the collapse comes next week not today.  

No Homo