Michael Burry

Anyone attempt to have their own personal portfolio blog ala michael burry style. Simplistic but with your own reasonings be it long or short positions. I will be having four month sabbatical and wanted to pursue it out of sheer curiosity and intend to religiously be detailed oriented. Will posting it even in analyst forum or even wallstreetoasis on my daily diamond in the rough be any good traction assuming and that is a big if assumption I get atleast 70% right call. Mind you all I am pretty much inept in tech stuff and intend to write in basic blogger site. Your take folks. Cheers

I’d create an account on Seeking alpha, and post there.

Palantir thanks mate. Never really thought about seeking alpha. Cheers and do have a pleasant weekend ahead.

i encourage you to also post here to share your ideas…love to hear new ideas…

You ever look at FDS as an investment? They seem to have a decent amount of switching costs + annuity stream…

yes i did look at it but nothing great jumped out…i’m also a huge fan of bloomberg so anything within that space sorts of puts me off…and we use factset for transcripts services here…

let me think about it for a bit…

Yeah, I’m always looking for midcap firms with growth potential. Lemme know if you find any!

If you ever read Market Wizards, you would know that the people that make the most money are only right 20% of the time. They ride their profits and cut their losses. Being right 70% of the time does not even guarantee you will break even.

20% right? that sounds wrong…just plain wrong…its more like 60% of the time…

I think former trader is talking about traders rather than LT investors…

Yes, the 20% right comment is probably in regard to a trend following or momentum strategy. If you are wrong about the trend, you better damn well make sure you don’t lose money. In contrast, an effective value investing strategy is likely to be right maybe 80% of the time (over a multi-year time frame), though you can certainly be wrong in the short-term. The two strategies are not really comparable but both can be effective. Most of the people in Market Wizards are traders.

Is there a similar book as Market Wizards for investors, rather than traders? I really enjoyed reading those books!

Palantir, i was looking at NAV this weekend…thought there was some potential there but i think their pension/debt might be a problem…but on a cash basis, it looks ok…just balance sheet seems a bit “shaky”…

What do you find attractive about it? They seem to have decent but slightly declining cash flow, dunno about the fundamentals of the business though.

number one/two player in trucks/buses/military cars and engines etc…essentially a industrial

stock got hammered (down 50%+ o/year)…they apparently have to change their direciton in terms of how they build their engines due to emmission standards so investors have lost faith. plus, there could be some headwinds of slowdown etc…

negative shareholders equity, pretty capital intensive…though the price to cash flow is not that bad…its under 9x by my count…better stuff out there (mostly the stuff I already own haha)…

Yeah, overall the business seems commodity ish, however commodity-seeming businesses can also do quite well. Seems all right, but doesn’t stand out per se.

Right now I’m praying for SAM to drop about 30% so I can buy it. I know you avoid tiny stocks but if anyone is interested, I’m focusing on some tiny as hell microcaps like pink sheet stock OPST (EV = 0.37, FCF=0.59).

y do you like boston beer? not particularly cheap from my first peak…takeover target you’re thinking? i don’t drink beers really so idk about the product…

i don’t avoid tiny stocks at all…i have bought small companies before…just haven’t found any recently…i like smaller companies as they’re much easier to analyze for the most part…

Boston Beer is primarily attractive because it is a rapidly growing brewer with a market niche and a strong brand name. I don’t think it’s a takeover target (CEO controls it with a dual class structure). And it is not cheap either, but I think it will be a good investment if bought near 1B, where it was earlier (anchoring bias). Furthermore, I’m looking at high growth midcaps that could grow into something much bigger down the line, another idea I’ve been thinking about over the past year is UA, but it’s not cheap either.

I’ve been buying microcaps, apart from RSKIA and DJCO which I bought, I’m looking at OPST, MPAD, TSRI, ELSE and a few more I can’t think of.

Palantir, do you have a lot of experience with sub 100mm market cap companies? Curious why you would look there as an individual investor. I spend a decent amount of time looking at blocks of micocaps that come up, but generally dislike that corner of the market. There is a lot of fraud in microcaps (including insider trading) and most of the stocks are incredibly volatile. My sweet spot for alpha is about 200 - 500mm, though one can argue good opportunities routintely exist up to roughly a billion (above that it gets much more efficient).

FWIW, generally speaking, microcaps trade at a 30%+ discount to fair value due to the illiquidity and general lack of investor interest. To make money, something needs to get bought out or go on a hell of a tear and become a growth stock. Merely “cheap” stocks often stay cheap (stuck in microcap purgatory).

Not trying to criticize, just food for thought. I hate seeing people lose money on tiny flea-ridden stocks.

I personally think the best way to make money for individual investors with limited time and small dollar capital is a trend following strategy overlaying some basic understanding of fundamentals (you could call that a GARP sort of approach).

small caps might be more volatile but that is an advantage…the biggest advantage from buying small caps in my view is that they’re under/not covered by analysts so mispricing is more rampant…small caps also have a higher potential for growth (at least according to some)…

the biggest disadvantage to a small company is that there is normally a lack of demonstratable defense mechanisms you can see due to shorter historical records…you really need to know the product/industry to have a high level of certainty…