Short positions

What are some good stocks for shorting the next 1-6 months?

for longs - Everything seems expensive or needs a pullback and yearly guidance for most companies will be in april. Doesn’t seem like a good idea to jump in anything new. Only new long is options in BBBY as a 4Q earnings play in April. They are guiding trailing fiscal at 4.50 eps and have traded around 15 P/E. Thats about a $67 company which is where Citi recently upgraded them to. Either its multiples are changing, market is anticipating a huge earnings miss (CEO has been selling a lot) or the stock is mispriced. Risk/Reward on options is pretty good for a company that could hit $57-$70 in a month.

Other than that, everything long seems lame and better off forming some short ideas. Anyone got any?

April is ‘long term’ in my book, so I don’t have anything, except for some puts on SODA. In a nutshell, all their revenue is mostly accrual, operating cash flow negative… but it’s only been around for a little while, and frankly, I don’t care if I’m wrong on this one. In other words, not the best due diligence done on SODA.

I don’t short as a general rule, unless there is some really compelling reason to short a company.

Does everything deserve a pullback? Sure. As a long buyer I’m always waiting for the right pullback. Doesn’t mean it will happen. A month ago some ppl may have been forecasting hell on March 1 and you know what, the mkt was up today. Markets are fickle. I’d generally like to be long as opposed to short, absent a convincing reason to be short a company.

So long story short, no, I don’t have any ideas for you.

heh ya SODA is kind of a dumb product. I only know 2 people who own the machine and both use it for sparkling water. They are women also, I think sparkling water is definitely a women thing. But the company has come a long way I guess… I first saw the product in 2011 when I was shopping at a JCP. The boxes were stacked to the top and the soda flavors were dripping liquid syrup out of the container and onto the ground. It looked like JCP had a menstrual cycle or UFC fight. It was p. disgusting for both sodastream and jcp (who woulda thought?).

its ok. I agree p. much but sometimes the market gives you many signals to go short.

shorting is a losers battle

go into more cash if you think the market is stretched and buy on dips

cash is still king

shorting is a dead man’s game…ask Mr. Ackman.

Yeah, you need to have extra conviction for shorts (at least in equities and FI) because the long term trend is for these things to appreciate, and there is cost of carry. So a short catalyst and/or a time frame is extra important. If you can’t come up with a time frame for the short to happen, just be neutral.

Do you consider shorting stocks speculating or investing?

Depends on time horizon, just like going long, could be spec, could be investing…

Iteresting question. An outright short would presumably have to be speculation, because you can’t expect to hold a short for the long term and make money (except perhaps in currencies or commodities), the time frame is shorter and thus more suited to speculation.

However, some short positions are more for hedging than true speculation. You may have a market neutral portfolio that requires short positions in order to neutralize market exposure, or short index positions that are designed to offset market risk of other positions. These are not really speculative, because they are risk controls, rather than outright bets on a falling price.

I agree that an outright short is speculation.

The market-neutral example is a little more complicated. In my simple mind anything that you’re not willing to hold long-term is speculation. This does not mean you need to hold it long-term, just that you should be willing to hold it long-term. Along those lines, I would argue that a market-neutral portfolio is blended speculation because you are primarily betting on the relative movement of securities prices.

Yeah, I agree, the market neutral example is more complicated. If it’s just a pairs trade (and we can think of a diversified market neutral portfolio as a complicated ensemble of pairs trades), then presumably you are expecting prices to converge and you would not expect that to take years and years and years. So in that sense the individual choices are a kind of speculation. However, the market neutral (and to some extent a long-short) portfolio has a short portfolio as a long-term part of its strategy, even if the components in it change in and out depending on market conditions.

I guess the real issue is that there can be intelligent speculation. Speculation is often cast as people being frivolous and playing roulette, when in fact there may be sensible reasons to expect a short term change in prices in a certain direction. As long as there is a rational reason for a positive expected value and there are risk controls to protect against catastrophic losses, this is as reasonable a way to try to make money as traditional investing.

My question is: Is Speculation considered less positive than long term investing?

like when that guy flipped over the moneychangers table.

I was like, um, chill out boy.

Lots of people consider speculation to be undesirable, and there are two perspectives.

From the investor perspective, speculation is often considered to be frivolous, which may or may not be true. If markets are efficient, then you shouldn’t be jumping in and out of markets except with your own consumption or liabilities or risk tolerance changes. So some people say that speculating is mindless trading because they think efficient markets can’t reward that. In fact, as long as research shows that there is a rational reason for positive expectation (momentum, for example), and that there are methods of controlling losses when things change, short term trading is defensible (that does imply that you think markets aren’t efficient, which is a reasonable opinion to have, just make sure you agree with it if you are speculating). However, it is not investing in a company, it is investing in the efficacy of a system (or in some cases, a bet on a trader’s discretionary instincts - which are unlikely to have positive expectation, but I’m not convinced that one has to rule it out).

From the asset issuer point of view, speculation gets a bad rap because it creates volatility. Of course, companies don’t really complain too much when speculation makes the stock go up, but when it goes down, they get all upset that speculators are driving the stock below intrinsic value. National governments get upset the same way when currency speculation goes against whatever their desires are for a currency. So speculators are a favorite excuse for company managements and national leaders to turn to when prices take a turn in a direction they don’t like. It’s a convenient excuse because it suggests that price changes have nothing to do with the quality of the assets they represent. This may or may not be true, but it’s rare to see a management step up and say “yeah, we screwed up, and that’s why our price is down,” it’s easier to say “it’s not our fault, it’s those darned speculators,” who (it’s assumed) either don’t know what they are doing, or are trying to manipulate prices for a profit.

Of course, you can say that speculation and the volatility it creates is what creates extra opportunity for investors. This seems reasonable to me. In the futures markets, if you don’t have enough hedgers to balance each side of the trade, the presence of speculators is what allows some hedgers to execute their trades.

Investors don’t have as much of a bad rap because interests are presumably more aligned. The investor wants to see the company perform well over time, as does (presumably) the management. Though if investors change their mind about how management is performing or what future prospects are, then they might suddenly find themselves labeled “speculators.”

I don’t think speculation is bad per se, but it can be inconvenient at times, and of course, just because you are speculating does not mean that you are any good at it. But the same can be said of investing, it’s just slightly less risky because investment assets do have an upward trend as a reward for risk over the long term.

speaking of speculation, bbby up on a barrons article suggesting its cheap valuation and decent buyout candidate. what a coincidence wink

also i have taken all of my 2013 profits so far and piled them into an options play that I believe gives me a favorable probability of a 15 bagger. This is my biggest test in conviction and size yes

Update, random thoughts:

Happy holidays, it’s a slow day at work. Is this a catholic holiday? I don’t know anything about religion I grew up with weak character.

My bbby calls moved from .55->3.50ish I sold about 70% earlier this week for a good return. I was too scared to let it all ride out post earnings next week. My conviction trade didn’t get me a 15x, it was about 2.8-3x, obviously just glad it worked positive. It was a great lesson in emotions and a good reminder that it takes a lot to send a stock down in this environment.

I’m a little more confused than usual about the market. I’d usually just follow the new highs but I’m uneasy about adding more to my longs or buying in anything new. A little unsure why, I’m hoping to find the exact reason this weekend.

I’m going to read a couple more finance books. For sure something about options. I need to learn more about liquidity, bid/ask movements, time decay and all the delta/theta stuff. For now it’s just been technicals and fundamentals.

rock on 2013 yes

I’m usually long only as well, but in the NFLX case, I feel very comfortable being short.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1287751-netflix-valuation-a-house-of-cards