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AAPL

Still holding, nice run 

We’re gonna win so much, you may even get tired of winning. And you’ll say, 'Please, please. It’s too much winning. We can’t take it anymore. Mr. President, it’s too much.' And I’ll say, 'No, it isn’t!' We have to keep winning!

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We’re gonna win so much, you may even get tired of winning. And you’ll say, 'Please, please. It’s too much winning. We can’t take it anymore. Mr. President, it’s too much.' And I’ll say, 'No, it isn’t!' We have to keep winning!

hpracing007 - Ya, but what’s the daily var on your portfolio??

¯\_(ツ)_/¯ It be like that sometimes.

CEO10K-DAY wrote:

hpracing007 - Ya, but what’s the daily var on your portfolio??

Probably not enough to be playing that song haha

We’re gonna win so much, you may even get tired of winning. And you’ll say, 'Please, please. It’s too much winning. We can’t take it anymore. Mr. President, it’s too much.' And I’ll say, 'No, it isn’t!' We have to keep winning!

so apple is now a trillion dollar co. trading at a 17x multiple, and grew rev this past year by 18%. 

the majority of that growth imo is 1 time due to them raising their asp by 15% so imo their real growth rate is prolly 10% to 12%. they cant raise their prices forever and i dont think people are as willing to get their phones in the future. i am personally moving to google’s phones next year. apple’s smaller segments are killing. services and other products growing at north of 30% per year but this is only 20% of rev. imo most of their growth is in their watch and music and mostly from new users, people finally subscribing to music (recurring rev) and people deciding to actually wear a watch now (not as sustainable imo). lol. with that said given the growth rate and multiple, its ok to good value, just not as spectacular as it once was. 

I love my cheese. I got to have my cheddar.

good thing u didnt buy it 5 years ago 

"You want a quote? Haven’t I written enough already???"

RIP

i bought 6k at 96 :) roughly 2 yrs ago. 5 years ago i was too focused on buying first real estate prop. didnt even contribute to 401k yet even. 

I love my cheese. I got to have my cheddar.

wow in 5 years from 0 401k to top 1% - even ohai cant comPOUND like dat shizzle

"You want a quote? Haven’t I written enough already???"

RIP

igor555 wrote:

wow in 5 years from 0 401k to top 1% - even ohai cant comPOUND like dat shizzle

#HeIsOnFireToday #WhereDidNiceIgorGo #BringTheHeat

Haven’t been winning lately, this could turn worse as people start downgrading, crowd starts following, more so. Company generates a lot of cash, margins are great, huge cash balance, still holding.

We’re gonna win so much, you may even get tired of winning. And you’ll say, 'Please, please. It’s too much winning. We can’t take it anymore. Mr. President, it’s too much.' And I’ll say, 'No, it isn’t!' We have to keep winning!

trades at 18x fcf 19x ni right now. it’s at its 10 year peak multiple. the core business wich is iphone is pretty stable now, and reps about 60% of revenue (in 2015 it was 70%, and in 2009, it was only 10%). there are obviosuly a lot of better cos now, but its prolly better than spy and majority of other cos.

I love my cheese. I got to have my cheddar.

Maybe I’m missing something but I see a FCF of $64,121 mm TTM vs market cap of $921mm (lower now, unfortunately)… 7%, 14.4x and that includes $237 mm in cash 

We’re gonna win so much, you may even get tired of winning. And you’ll say, 'Please, please. It’s too much winning. We can’t take it anymore. Mr. President, it’s too much.' And I’ll say, 'No, it isn’t!' We have to keep winning!

Lol whoops my bad. My data was outdated. Anyways you should use enterprise value. It’s around 15.5x.

I love my cheese. I got to have my cheddar.

EV for free cash flow? I use market cap since fcf is post interest expense.

We’re gonna win so much, you may even get tired of winning. And you’ll say, 'Please, please. It’s too much winning. We can’t take it anymore. Mr. President, it’s too much.' And I’ll say, 'No, it isn’t!' We have to keep winning!

as a buyer, i think ev to fcf is a better metric, as it makes it look more likely to be expensive hence less likely for you to invest in it. 

id be more worried about the size of the debt which is larger and 100% due rather than the interest which is a much smaller amount that can easily change.

just add back after tax interest expense rather than not even look at debt at all.

I love my cheese. I got to have my cheddar.

I keep debt in the back of my mind… maybe not as much as I should in my calcs. Short term rates could skew the fcf margin the way I calc in favor of levered names.

Still holding :(

We’re gonna win so much, you may even get tired of winning. And you’ll say, 'Please, please. It’s too much winning. We can’t take it anymore. Mr. President, it’s too much.' And I’ll say, 'No, it isn’t!' We have to keep winning!

Fell to where it was at the start of the year! I’ve learned my lesson on rebalancing and diversification, tanks.

We’re gonna win so much, you may even get tired of winning. And you’ll say, 'Please, please. It’s too much winning. We can’t take it anymore. Mr. President, it’s too much.' And I’ll say, 'No, it isn’t!' We have to keep winning!

Where is your conviction bro. What would Ackman think? 

I’m still holding so that’s my conviction right there ha. I think the stock is still a good deal for the price despite declining iPhone sales. Huge cash balance, great margins, and generating cash. Warren B is a big holder… I can wait.

but looking back  at how big of a portion of my portfolio it was and still is and my reluctance to realize capital gains wasn’t too smart. I did well in stock selections this year with new picks but a poor job in portfolio management. Still up for the year but not nearly as much 2 months ago, sad!

We’re gonna win so much, you may even get tired of winning. And you’ll say, 'Please, please. It’s too much winning. We can’t take it anymore. Mr. President, it’s too much.' And I’ll say, 'No, it isn’t!' We have to keep winning!

Haha well my exposure to international has tanked my portfolio this year. Maybe I should just buy apple :-)

Same, 25% of my relatively new 401k goes towards the MSCI EAFE Intl Index (1/N diversification ha) should been 100% America First, sad!

We’re gonna win so much, you may even get tired of winning. And you’ll say, 'Please, please. It’s too much winning. We can’t take it anymore. Mr. President, it’s too much.' And I’ll say, 'No, it isn’t!' We have to keep winning!

at current aapl price of 180 and its 14x multiple. id say its fairly valued historically, and cheaply valued relatively to other stocks

I love my cheese. I got to have my cheddar.

$166, this looks like a deal… tempted to buy more but already a pretty good percentage of the portfolio.

We’re gonna win so much, you may even get tired of winning. And you’ll say, 'Please, please. It’s too much winning. We can’t take it anymore. Mr. President, it’s too much.' And I’ll say, 'No, it isn’t!' We have to keep winning!

Sold at $207 after holding for a few years, but tempted to buy here as well.

Hey Hamilton, have a holly jolly Christmas.

hpracing007 wrote:

$166, this looks like a deal… tempted to buy more but already a pretty good percentage of the portfolio.

In terms of risk, it’s probably not a very volatile concentrated holding. All else equal I wouldn’t worry quite as much about concentration in Apple. 

Good job Tim Apple!

Mulling trimming, something often thought about but I haven’t done. Some of my shares are in an IRA so no cap gains tax. May just do it to reduce concentration. Still generating that sweet, sweet, free cash flow, doing well on their investments and returning what they can’t to investors…company is run very well. 

Tempted to let it get closer to all time highs… Damodaran had a really good analysis a few months ago with a value of $200 I think. The company probably has more cash on the books now, less shares. At $210, that’s like 5% over valued, not too crazy. Need to revisit his assumptions.

We’re gonna win so much, you may even get tired of winning. And you’ll say, 'Please, please. It’s too much winning. We can’t take it anymore. Mr. President, it’s too much.' And I’ll say, 'No, it isn’t!' We have to keep winning!

at $210, it is currently trading at 16x fcf/ni. p/b is at 10x and will prolly detiorate even further since they;ve been buying lots of shares back at about 30-60b per year. add 12b in divs. and will prolly increase it even further. not so sure its a good use of money on account of apple’s slowing growth unless they have a hidden ace in their sleeves. management has even said that they are just doing it to return excess capital implying that they dont have many ideas to further compound their capital. anyways going to go buy a new 1 this year! 2 year plan is up! hopefully i get a 50% off deal during black friday!

I love my cheese. I got to have my cheddar.