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Trading volatility

Friday options now expired, I got assigned bigtime – now 115% short. Game on S&P500, let’s fight!

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@WYG well, other than the VIX call which expired, I hope you still have some positions on.  Earnings start next week….. which starts with the banks.  That might put folk in a “WTF” mood again and we will get a pull back.

I was mad I was impatient at first, but now I’m glad I took the deal I got.  Even though the market went up 10pts after I took the trade, the spread is still going for the same premium.   I figure, even if the market goes up, as long at it retraces back to where it is right now by August I should be able to buy back the spead for a profit.  Overall…. I’m happy with my trade.  If the VIX offers me a similar deal I will take it.  For now, the put spreads are just stupid.

"But I don't think of you"..... Howard Roark

purealpha wrote:

Friday options now expired, I got assigned bigtime – now 115% short. Game on S&P500, let’s fight!

can we restart a new thread and call it “Die market, DIE”

"But I don't think of you"..... Howard Roark

KMeriwetherD wrote:
Earnings start next week….. which starts with the banks.  That might put folk in a “WTF” mood again…

Oh right, that little thing about valuations being related to earnings!

Some uncertainty is what we need, and that could be it. Although in the past they have just talked themselves into bull-mode after some s/t fluxuations “well, earning suck yet again, but analysts say they will be better next time”. Late bull, optimism is a habit! :)

And then there’s the Fed. Every time for years now, when the market assumes the Fed is out of the picture, the Fed reasserts themselves back into the picture! My money says that as the market get peaky, the Fed attempts to manage it down again with “well, actually we MIGHT still raise rates”, everyone takes them seriously again, and so they can manage the market UP later when they DON’T raise rates.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-07/most-asia-futures-tip-...

purealpha wrote:

Friday options now expired, I got assigned bigtime – now 115% short. Game on S&P500, let’s fight!

I though you might find comfort in these guys….. who are managing their ES short position from 2000!!!  I would be freaking out…. but they are totally cool about it.  Just trading though it. :-)  (forward to 25:00 in the video)

https://www.tastytrade.com/tt/shows/confirm-and-send/episodes/defending-...

"But I don't think of you"..... Howard Roark

Yeah, I plan on doing nothing during Q3, just sit and wait, their move. At end of H1 up 9.1% vs 2.1% global stocks (ACWI). So now I just hedge, and run out the clock. Either I outperform more with any brief market shock, or the benchmark gains on me as I go nowhere (but it has a lot of distance to close). Defense! 

I’m taking a bath right now. I need these bank stocks to report horrid earnings. 

Sorry man.  The bad news is it is proabably going to get worse before it gets better.  If I was just looking at the chart not knowing what it was, I would have actually bought yesterday!  The good news is where ever this nonsense is going, it’s not going to go in a strait line.  Best case senario is something triggers the markets to get back down in to it’s holding pattern.  However, it is likely the consolation prize will be to get out on a half decent pullback with a few bruises. 

so far for myself:

choice of exposure and leverage….. well done KMD

letting impatients get in the way with what the chart was saying……. when will I learn!!

"But I don't think of you"..... Howard Roark

what size do you trade

its not the size…

"You want a quote? Haven’t I written enough already???"

RIP

Shut up Igor.
I let the size of my potential loss determine the size that I trade.

"But I don't think of you"..... Howard Roark

here is an interesting trade of mine from last friday.. notice the time stamp

“not a bad 21 seconds”

danv0330 wrote:

here is an interesting trade of mine from last friday.. notice the time stamp

“not a bad 21 seconds”

holy crap!  Were you working with a stop?  That bad boy moves over $30 a tick!  That could have been just as bad or worse in the wrong direction.

trading bonds on the jobs report……..*moxie*

"But I don't think of you"..... Howard Roark

ZB is intense but UB is the real high stakes table

^ Bonus points for using IBKR.

purealpha wrote:

Just thought I’d swing by to say I shorted VXX during Brexit @ $17.76, a day later 16.5% gain!

Still zero realized losses in what must be at least a dozen vol shorts. However I did take the mother of all drawdowns during the “OMG China” panic, just held patiently until it came back.

This again. Bragging about your trade after the fact.  What’s the borrow costs on VXX for you? I see it being quite steep.

Your ES calls doing well eh? lol. 1 week left.

PistolPt wrote:

What’s the borrow costs on VXX for you? I see it being quite steep.

Did you think this thru before clicking post? Did you just ask about the borrow costs on a day-trade that made a 17% gain?

People are really odd, let’s wait till VIX hits crazy lows AND THEN let’s short it…

Hedge funds and other big traders tracked by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission have pushed net short positions on CBOE Volatility Index futures to 115,000 contracts, the most since 2013, data compiled by Bloomberg show. 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-08-09/u-s-index-futures-are-...

purealpha wrote:

PistolPt wrote:

What’s the borrow costs on VXX for you? I see it being quite steep.

Did you think this thru before clicking post? Did you just ask about the borrow costs on a day-trade that made a 17% gain?

No - I was asking about the borrow costs on your only time-stamped VXX trade in Aug 2015, that immediately got worse and didn’t pan out until 7-8 months later (which you failed to mention).

Hope your ES short works out :)  I’m sure it will, you never lose.

(sidenote - I also believe the market is overvalued)

PistolPt wrote:
No - I was asking about the borrow costs on your only time-stamped VXX trade in Aug 2015, that immediately got worse and didn’t pan out until 7-8 months later (which you failed to mention).

Yeah, borrow costs are something I modeled before I got into the volatility game (and so the one I had to hold for 6-months was strategically a long inverse vol using XIV, so no borrowing costs). Why? Because if you are going to dig in with a huge position, you don’t want losses to exceed 100%, and you want to be able to wait it out.

Looking at yesterday’s IBKR report, now up 16.27% YTD. Lots of vol plays, and selling of puts/calls.

"You want a quote? Haven’t I written enough already???"

RIP

I am always short volatility. Check my volatility and crash proof strategy here http://smartinvestments.webnode.cz/equity-investments/ Well just to make sure nothing is Boolet proof.

Boolet is my fav bourbon

"You want a quote? Haven’t I written enough already???"

RIP

What now purealpha? Gonna tell us your trades real time or after the fact?

What am I talking about, I’m sure you went whole hog on the margin into UVXY before the day started.

^ I don’t short vol on some little nothing like today, VIX is only what 16? Naw, at 20-25 I would start building a vol short, EXCEPT I only do that when I think “it’s probably nothing” (Grexit). Global recession isn’t “nothing”. 

purealpha wrote:

People are really odd, let’s wait till VIX hits crazy lows AND THEN let’s short it…

Hedge funds and other big traders tracked by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission have pushed net short positions on CBOE Volatility Index futures to 115,000 contracts, the most since 2013, data compiled by Bloomberg show. 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-08-09/u-s-index-futures-are-...

So did these idiots get crushed or what? 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-14/volatility-is-market-s...

VIX = 20, who has the guts to short, with the world on the edge of recession??

Me. Just a small short though, since I hold protective puts I have immunity…I’ll probably close it out tomorrow after the fed doesn’t raise rates.

purealpha wrote:
I’ll probably close it out tomorrow after the fed doesn’t raise rates.

Out @ 1.4% gain, boring…everyone knew they wouldn’t hike anyhow.

VIX 25 by election day?

Jezus, too many PA posts on this thread, who is this guy!? angry

Revisiting vol shorting strategies for Trump era. This is late bull market, with an erratic guy as president, BUT he has massive stimulus plans to push the bull into a second life…so who knows what will happen, but good chance it involves volatility!

I’ve been modeling selling calls on VXX in order to establish a short. Example: currently VIX13, you sell monthly calls to get paid to take a short at around VIX20, but also buy calls at a VIX30 type level as a backstop (cheap since VIX is currently low). You just keep doing this every month until VIX finally closes over 20, then you get assigned your short and let it decay away. As it decays (historic rate -5% per month) you need to refresh the short, which you do by selling more monthly calls. Repeat into perpetuity getting paid once for taking no position, and twice for taking a position.

Safety first – in this f@#%d up environment however, I am spending some of the profits to buy deep OTM calls as protection. Placed such that the account could never get a margin call. We’ve never experienced a world war with these new vol ETN products, gotta be safe. 

anyone getting in VIX, almost all time low

"You want a quote? Haven’t I written enough already???"

RIP